Possible future trade targets..

[nsacpi]

I don't think it's that clear. We're talking about a market that is going to be absolutely inundated with premium pitching; Price, Cueto, Greinke, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Gallardo, Latos, Fister, Kazmir. Given those market conditions I find it improbable that we see Price achieve more than $175MM. I still think he'll ultimately settle for around $150MM, having more to do with the amount of teams able to drop that kind of coin versus what his talent would be worth in any other offseason.

You suggested Buerhle at 2 years plus option ('between 10-15MM' per annum) -- let's say he gets $12MM: ~$25MM
Uribe at 2 years plus option ('between 5-10MM' per annum) -- let's say he gets $8MM: ~$16MM
Zobrist at 2 years plus option ('between 10-15mm' per annum) -- let's say he gets $13MM: ~$26MM

That's $67MM (conservatively, given the market for 3B and MI in general) -- not including buyouts for the third year of all 3 contracts (let's just ballpark $1.5MM for each player = ~$5MM) and we're at $72MM not having spent on your suggestion of veteran relief. If we sign Jim Johnson 2.0 ($1.6MM) and Jason Grilli 2.0 (~$8MM) we're at: $81.1MM -- and this is assuming you buy out all three players and don't have buyouts for the newly signed relief corps.

I'm a proponent of depth, but not at that kind of cost. Lohse/Young/Hudson/Norris I imagine will be available at between $5-9MM on a one year pact.

We have 30-40M to play with this off-season. Price will come at an AAV closer to 25M than 20M. Quite possibly more than $25M/year. That's the uncomfortable arithmetic.

 

[Hawk]

We have 30-40M to play with this off-season. Price will come at an AAV closer to 25M than 20M. Quite possibly more than $25M/year. That's the uncomfortable arithmetic.

I've stated that I believe the payroll could go to $130MM in 2016 if the Braves found it necessary -- Price easily fits in that scenario.

And supposing that it doesn't? Backload the contract a point or two in the early years.

I just don't see much, especially when evaluating historical FA spending trends, to suggest that Price receives an AAV at $25MM+.

But it should be a highly interesting offseason either way.

 

[Heyward]

While the SP market this winter is stupid, i still would be very very surprised if Price didnt command in the access of 185-200+ mil.

 

[Heyward]

I don't think it's that clear. We're talking about a market that is going to be absolutely inundated with premium pitching; Price, Cueto, Greinke, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Gallardo, Latos, Fister, Kazmir. Given those market conditions I find it improbable that we see Price achieve more than $175MM. I still think he'll ultimately settle for around $150MM, having more to do with the amount of teams able to drop that kind of coin versus what his talent would be worth in any other offseason.

You suggested Buerhle at 2 years plus option ('between 10-15MM' per annum) -- let's say he gets $12MM: ~$25MM
Uribe at 2 years plus option ('between 5-10MM' per annum) -- let's say he gets $8MM: ~$16MM
Zobrist at 2 years plus option ('between 10-15mm' per annum) -- let's say he gets $13MM: ~$26MM

That's $67MM (conservatively, given the market for 3B and MI in general) -- not including buyouts for the third year of all 3 contracts (let's just ballpark $1.5MM for each player = ~$5MM) and we're at $72MM not having spent on your suggestion of veteran relief. If we sign Jim Johnson 2.0 ($1.6MM) and Jason Grilli 2.0 (~$8MM) we're at: $81.1MM -- and this is assuming you buy out all three players and don't have buyouts for the newly signed relief corps.

I'm a proponent of depth, but not at that kind of cost. Lohse/Young/Hudson/Norris I imagine will be available at between $5-9MM on a one year pact.

Even with the top end market, tons of the big market teams have money to go after Price.

LAD assuming Greinke opts, LAA, NYY, Bos, SF, Chi Cubs.

Price will have a very rich market and i would be stunned if he got only 150 mil despite the big market, he's arguably the top pitcher on the market and will be paid like it. Could argue Greinke but he's 1-2 years older which factors in.

 

[Heyward]

Signing starting pitching to rich long-term contracts is something best left to teams with deeper pockets. The risks are too high for a team like the Braves. I think that's the whole point of building up pitching depth throughout the farm system. This gives you a steady stream of new pitchers to add to the major league team and avoids the need to take risks with guys like Price, Cueto, Greinke and Zimmerman. I do see the Braves potentially going after a "Charlie Liebrandt" type this off-season to provide some experience in the rotation. Maybe Buehrle.

I could see our off-season going something like this:

1) Sign Buehrle for 2 years plus an option at 10-15M/year

2) Sign Uribe for 2 years plus an option at 5-10M/year

3) Sign Zobrist for 2 years plus an option at 10-15M/year

4) Sign one or two guys for the pen similar to the contracts we gave out to Grilli and Johnson last off-season.

5) Trade one of our starting pitchers (Teheran, Wood, Miller, Folty, Perez, Wisler, Banuelos) for a catcher.

This is the two stars plus a solid supporting cast strategy. We have two players (Freeman and Simmons) capable or putting up 4-5 WAR. The other six position players and starting pitchers would project to about 2-3 WAR. Some might have career years, some might disappoint. But that is the baseline.

This kind of strategy avoids taking big risks on free agent contracts while preserving financial flexibility for 2017 and beyond. It doesn't block young players coming up the system with potentially underperforming veterans with big contracts. It gives you a team that projects to win about 85 games. There are no guarantees about making the playoffs or winning the WS. But I think the goal should be to build a sustainable contending team.

Not a bad plan actually but i'd like someone better than Buerhle.

IF our pick is protected, it makes sense to go after someone with a QO given we'd still be able to keep our 1st rounder.

Whether it's a bat like Wieters or Cespedes/Justin/Jason or one of the top SP's like Price, Cueto, Zimmerman, etc.

We only have around 50ish mil or so to 2016 pre arb so Hart will have some money to play with.

 

[Hawk]

While the SP market this winter is stupid, i still would be very very surprised if Price didnt command in the access of 185-200+ mil.

That would make him the third highest paid SP in MLB. And a year or two older than most of his peers when they signed long term deals.

Who gives that to him? Especially given the competitive market and the number of teams straddled with long term pitching debt?

Just not likely.

Detroit made him an offer (despite the Verlander contract) -- I wonder what it was.

 

[Heyward]

That would make him the third highest paid SP in MLB. And a year or two older than most of his peers when they signed long term deals.

Who gives that to him? Especially given the competitive market and the number of teams straddled with long term pitching debt?

Just not likely.

Detroit made him an offer (despite the Verlander contract) -- I wonder what it was.

I wonder if Price would stay given some of their contracts, VMart, Verlander decline, bad farm system, etc.

I could see NYY, Chi, Bos give him that. Perhaps LAD if they dont keep Greinke, Friedman did draft him.

Maybe he doesnt get 185+, but i would be quite surprised if he settled on 150 mil.

 

[Hawk]

Even with the top end market, tons of the big market teams have money to go after Price.

LAD assuming Greinke opts, LAA, NYY, Bos, SF, Chi Cubs.

Yeah, but the market is diluted by the number of players available.

For example:
LAD signs Greinke
LAA signs Zimmermann
NYY signs Samardzija
BOS signs Cueto

etc.

And that still leaves Price and guys like Ian Kennedy, Gallardo, Fister, Kazmir.

Plenty of talent to go around -- why grossly overpay?

 

[Hawk]

I wonder if Price would stay given some of their contracts, VMart, Verlander decline, bad farm system, etc.

I could see NYY, Chi, Bos give him that. Perhaps LAD if they dont keep Greinke, Friedman did draft him.

Maybe he doesnt get 185+, but i would be quite surprised if he settled on 150 mil.

I know that nobody likes to hear all of the 'discount' talk (although it's real: see Lester), so I won't go there, but a common rumor about Price has always been that he wants to play closer to home -- so I doubt he goes out West.

 

[Heyward]

Yeah, but the market is diluted by the number of players available.

For example:
LAD signs Greinke
LAA signs Zimmermann
NYY signs Samardzija
BOS signs Cueto

etc.

And that still leaves Price and guys like Ian Kennedy, Gallardo, Fister, Kazmir.

Plenty of talent to go around -- why grossly overpay?

Eh after Price, Cueto, Zimmerman and Greinke, there arent any aces left.

A bunch of 2-3's.

 

[Heyward]

I know that nobody likes to hear all of the 'discount' talk (although it's real: see Lester), so I won't go there, but a common rumor about Price has always been that he wants to play closer to home -- so I doubt he goes out West.

Guess we'll see, but money talks.

 

[Hawk]

Eh after Price, Cueto, Zimmerman and Greinke, there arent any aces left.

A bunch of 2-3's.

Whatever you want to call them, not the point.

When was the last time there were four bonda-fide aces (five if you count Samardzija, who definitely has the stuff) and 6-8 TOR types on the Free Agent market?

There were two elite guys last year (Lester barely an ace).
Tanaka in 2013.
Greinke and Anibal Sanchez in 2012.
Darvish in CJ Wilson in 2011.
Cliff Lee in 2010.

 

[Heyward]

Whatever you want to call them, not the point.

When was the last time there were four bonda-fide aces (five if you count Samardzija, who definitely has the stuff) and 6-8 TOR types on the Free Agent market?

There were two elite guys last year (Lester barely an ace).
Tanaka in 2013.
Greinke and Anibal Sanchez in 2012.
Darvish in CJ Wilson in 2011.
Cliff Lee in 2010.

Never, but money in baseball is through the roof.

But certainly an insane, insane SP market, so plenty of teams can grab a very good pitcher.

I'd love to get Price though, just not sure it happens.

 

[Hawk]

Never, but money in baseball is through the roof.

But certainly an insane, insane SP market, so plenty of teams can grab a very good pitcher.

I'd love to get Price though, just not sure it happens.

I agree, but I'll just say that baseball has a well-documented history of reigning in out of control spending (borderline collusion) that guys like Schuerholz and Manfred have called 'market correction' in the past "when the game can no longer afford its own economics." We saw this bad in the mid 2000s after organizations started getting burned (Hampton/AROD/Griffey/Kevin Brown) and teams collectively started spending much less for the same caliber of player.

I just don't see teams handing out $1B for 5-10 starters alone ... the entire FA class only got $700MM in 2015 and $550M in 2014.

 

[nsacpi]

Cubs will spend big on a pitcher or two. There are some other less predictable teams that could splash for a pitcher--Giants, Padres, Rangers, Orioles. In addition to the big market teams already mentioned.

 

[Heyward]

Cubs will spend big on a pitcher or two. There are some other less predictable teams that could splash for a pitcher--Giants, Padres, Rangers, Orioles. In addition to the big market teams already mentioned.

Cubs have been rumored for Zimmerman since he's from that area.

Rangers are rumored to lead for Hamels at this moment.

If SD blows it up im not sure FA's go there.

Can see Giants and Bal isnt a big market team.

 

[Hawk]

Baltimore has $40MM in commitments for 2016, but has major holes to fill at C, SS, OF, BP.

Agreed on the rest, Texas can't go after anybody else if they get Hamels and San Diego probably won't go nuts again unless they are able to trade James Shields.

Don't forget Houston, they have some money to spend.

 

[jpx7]

I agree, but I'll just say that baseball has a well-documented history of reigning in out of control spending (borderline collusion) that guys like Schuerholz and Manfred have called 'market correction' in the past "when the game can no longer afford its own economics." We saw this bad in the mid 2000s after organizations started getting burned (Hampton/AROD/Griffey/Kevin Brown) and teams collectively started spending much less for the same caliber of player.

Borderline? More like "obvious, but not legally inculpating" collusion.

 

[Hawk]

Borderline? More like "obvious, but not legally inculpating" collusion.

"No one who has a functioning brain would say [the owners are colluding] if they knew anything about economics," said John Schuerholz

---

Yes, that is a real quote.

 

[jpx7]

"No one who has a functioning brain would say [the owners are colluding] if they knew anything about economics," said John Schuerholz.