Potential for a once in a lifetime haul this summer for the minors

P

Preacher

Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Was thinking about this the other day when I couldn't sleep.......... this summer has the potential to bring an influx of talent into the minor league system that may never happen again.

- We are about to break the bank in the international market and HOPEFULLY sign not only 6+ highly regarded kids but also the NUMBER ONE player available. That haul by itself is going to be immense, but we also have the #3 pick in the draft and 4 more before #80 - with the potential to add more. We are going to spend as much on the international market as anyone and have nearly as much draft capital as anyone.

Considering that baseball is about to overhaul the international free agent market, this type of perfect storm with the draft and the international signings may never happen again. We can potentially add 5 top-80 draft prospects and 6 or more top-30 international prospects - that's 11 potential impact players right there.

......oh and our farm system is already loaded......
 
Gonna be a huge summer in reshaping this franchise. Let's hope we strike gold and not fools gold
 
The influx of talent should allow us to field a competitive team during most of the next decade. The true test of a FO imo is whether you can sustain that without writing off entire seasons of competitiveness (and the high draft picks and funds to go on international market spending sprees associated with such write offs). It kind of reminds me a bit of what banks do when they cram all of their write offs for bad loans into one or two quarters and generate "earnings momentum" after that.
 
Preacher said:
Was thinking about this the other day when I couldn't sleep.......... this summer has the potential to bring an influx of talent into the minor league system that may never happen again.

- We are about to break the bank in the international market and HOPEFULLY sign not only 6+ highly regarded kids but also the NUMBER ONE player available. That haul by itself is going to be immense, but we also have the #3 pick in the draft and 4 more before #80 - with the potential to add more. We are going to spend as much on the international market as anyone and have nearly as much draft capital as anyone.

Considering that baseball is about to overhaul the international free agent market, this type of perfect storm with the draft and the international signings may never happen again. We can potentially add 5 top-80 draft prospects and 6 or more top-30 international prospects - that's 11 potential impact players right there.

......oh and our farm system is already loaded......
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Absolutely!

Kevin Maitan may be a generational prospect. Abraham Gutierrez is a strong catching prospect. Yunier Severino, Yenci Pena, Livan Soto, and Juan Contreras are all top 30 international prospects. Then to top it off, we could be looking at a pitcher like Jason Groome with the 3rd pick, a couple of high upside bats in Will Benson and Carter Kieboom at 40 and 44, and probably another high school kid at 76/80.

You add that to what we got last year in the first two rounds, along with what we are probably looking at getting next year.....you can see why the Braves front office chose to do the rebuild the way they are doing it.
 
nsacpi said:
The influx of talent should allow us to field a competitive team during most of the next decade. The true test of a FO imo is whether you can sustain that without writing off entire seasons of competitiveness (and the high draft picks and funds to go on international market spending sprees associated with such write offs). It kind of reminds me a bit of what banks do when they cram all of their write offs for bad loans into one or two quarters and generate "earnings momentum" after that.
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but how many franchises have sustained success without some lost seasons?

some teams do it, but not when they've started with little-to-nothing in the farm system in the first place. the cubs look amazing, but money + being bad for years has helped that quite a bit.

it's really tough to not have a lost season or two when you have the farm system we had and want sustained success. the cardinals have had a great FO in place for a long time and have always kept a well-stocked farm. sometimes a franchise needs to hit the reset button. hopefully we won't have lost seasons for a while after this.
 
yeezus said:
but how many franchises have sustained success without some lost seasons?
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No franchise enjoys perpetual success. But obviously some franchises have done better at minimizing the number of non-competitive seasons. The standard I would probably use is percentage of time a franchise makes the playoffs over a 20-30 year period. Obviously you need to make some adjustments for financial resources and maybe some other things.
 
The keys to sustaining success are:

Cash in players for new prospects when they have 1-2 years of control remaining. Call up prospects to replace them, and continue that cycle.

Avoid dead money contracts at almost all costs. This means no long term commitments to pitchers into their 30s, and no shopping at the top of the FA market.

When a gap in the "prospect replaces young veteran" cycle inevitably has a gap, sign a FA veteran to a short contract. Avoid guys that will cost a draft pick.

Sign young position players to contracts early that buy out a couple FA years. Only extend pitchers through their 20s, but option years into their early 30s are fine. Don't be stupid and extend bad players like CJ.

In short, maintain maximum roster and financial flexibility.
 
nsacpi said:
No franchise enjoys perpetual success. But obviously some franchises have done better at minimizing the number of non-competitive seasons. The standard I would probably use is percentage of time a franchise makes the playoffs over a 20-30 year period. Obviously you need to make some adjustments for financial resources and maybe some other things.
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The key is to find a set of core players and find a way to retain them and sprinkle solid support around them. I always thought the problem during the Wren regime (and it may not have been Wren's fault) is that we started to pay too much for non-core players. That's water under the bridge. The goal now appears to be to get as much high-end talent as possible, groom them, and build a core of major league players that you can retain. Hopefully, the budget situation gets better so we can keep what we grow.

I don't think a team can be a perpetual top-five team, but I do think a team can be a perpetual playoff contender. Money is a big part of that, but having a pipeline to replace what can't be retained is also important.
 
That about sums it up
Enscheff said:
The keys to sustaining success are:

Cash in players for new prospects when they have 1-2 years of control remaining. Call up prospects to replace them, and continue that cycle.

Avoid dead money contracts at almost all costs. This means no long term commitments to pitchers into their 30s, and no shopping at the top of the FA market.

When a gap in the "prospect replaces young veteran" cycle inevitably has a gap, sign a FA veteran to a short contract. Avoid guys that will cost a draft pick.

Sign young position players to contracts early that buy out a couple FA years. Only extend pitchers through their 20s, but option years into their early 30s are fine. Don't be stupid and extend bad players like CJ.

In short, maintain maximum roster and financial flexibility.
Click to expand...
 
Enscheff said:
The keys to sustaining success are:

Cash in players for new prospects when they have 1-2 years of control remaining. Call up prospects to replace them, and continue that cycle.

Avoid dead money contracts at almost all costs. This means no long term commitments to pitchers into their 30s, and no shopping at the top of the FA market.

When a gap in the "prospect replaces young veteran" cycle inevitably has a gap, sign a FA veteran to a short contract. Avoid guys that will cost a draft pick.

Sign young position players to contracts early that buy out a couple FA years. Only extend pitchers through their 20s, but option years into their early 30s are fine. Don't be stupid and extend bad players like CJ.

In short, maintain maximum roster and financial flexibility.
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And you need to be right more than you are wrong on the draft and trade front.

Also invest in development.

I think the next CBA will see big changes to the international market. Good to go on a shopping spree before that ends.
 
The exclamation point to the 2016 draft will be the Braves' top two picks in 2017.
 
It is exciting to think that just 24 months ago our #10 prospect was Jason Hursh and by August first this year it might be Austin Riley
 
bravos4evr said:
It is exciting to think that just 24 months ago our #10 prospect was Jason Hursh and by August first this year it might be Austin Riley
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This is what Coppy was talking about the other day when he mentioned that a year ago, we had middle relief prospects in our top 10.
 
Being that the Braves operate solely on revenue with no financial input from ownership, the new park and surrounding 365 day a year revenue streams should increase payroll a good bit. I could see us, come 2018, having not only a top 3 farm system, but a top 8 payroll. You combine those 2 things, and you tend to get long term success.
 
McGuirk outright promised a significant payroll bump in 2017. If this happens, I'm inclined to agree. We're putting a ton of trust in our talent evaluators, and I'm comfortable with that (Olivera notwithstanding). If we've got the payroll to afford to extent some guys and fill in FA talent where necessary, we're in business.

Coppy's still got to prove himself with regard to assembling a big league roster, but it's nice to know there's a plan.
 
smootness said:
This hasn't yet been a goal of his.
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Agreed. I'm pissed and loathe being as bad as we have been the last 2 seasons but the moves he's made to the big league roster have definitely been filler temp jobs til the youth arrive. The Johns have worked much more on rebuilding our farm and that of course will supply the major league roster.
 
heck of a lot better than the 70's and 80's where we sucked, made dumb moves, sucked harder, made worse moves and kept right on sucking (with a 2 year exception where we somehow didn't suck) at least there seems like a designed plan in effect rather than 'hell, I like that boy there let's trade for him!" like it seemed like under the first decade of Ted's ownership
 
Julio3000 said:
McGuirk outright promised a significant payroll bump in 2017. If this happens, I'm inclined to agree. We're putting a ton of trust in our talent evaluators, and I'm comfortable with that (Olivera notwithstanding). If we've got the payroll to afford to extent some guys and fill in FA talent where necessary, we're in business.

Coppy's still got to prove himself with regard to assembling a big league roster, but it's nice to know there's a plan.
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This.

From years passed there was just drafting from the board. In years passed there was no calculated SPLASH in the IFA pool. In years passed there was no strategy to gain ammo for the draft or leverage more talent with what you have.

They are getting creative to maximize returns, and I approve.
 
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