Potential Late-Signing Targets

It will very interesting to see how many of the remaining FAs opt to settle for a one-year deal, knowing how lame the free agent market will be next year. It certainly worked for Ervin Santana.
 
50PoundHead said:
Anyone who throws tantrums like Johnson is a distraction. Believe me. I was a guy who threw tantrums and was told to sit down and shut up more than once.

Plus, Johnson was whining last summer when he became a platoon player. He made it clear he wanted out of Atlanta. Why bring him back?

And he's not adequate defensively. He's terrible defensively.

If you can get Freese for a year, I think you do it. Freese is likely to want a longer-term deal, so it's probably a waiting game with him. I wouldn't be averse to bringing back Uribe and/or Kelly Johnson.
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Yeah, ok. I know the metrics on CJ don't match up with my eyes, which say he's short on range but catches what he gets to. That's probably minus DRS and minus WAR, but I don't believe he's that bad or the metric is accurate.

Freese is a good player but only incrementally better than Johnson. He will cost money. There's no reason for us to spend money. He's a good pickup for an already-contending team with a hole at third - not a difference maker.

Goldfly's suggestion is actually closer to correct. Difference makers that we control for five plus years.
 
rico43 said:
It will very interesting to see how many of the remaining FAs opt to settle for a one-year deal, knowing how lame the free agent market will be next year. It certainly worked for Ervin Santana.
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But if Santana had gotten hurt a year earlier...
 
blueagleace1 said:
I'm sorry but I don't recall saying he was an adequate defender. Freese is clearly the superior player, and honestly could help a contender.
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I did. I called him adequate. Back to the scout/stat debate. I can't process how my eyes can be that wrong on so many guys.

We agree that Freese goes to a team that would like to win. For us, he's incremental improvement on a team that needs difference makers. Hopefully difference makers a few years from now.
 
CJ next to Simba was maybe adequate. CJ next to anyone else is terrible.

I thought Gattis was a better catcher than CJ was 3B by my eyes.
 
Enscheff said:
Which is exactly why the stats were invented/calculated in the first place.
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The defensive stats are horribly subjective and overweighted. You simply can't impact a game that much from the field - right field, third base, whatever.

Jason Heyward is, by consensus and by metric, the best defensive right fielder in baseball. His value in terms of the sabermatician's shorthand, WAR, is that of a "6 WAR" player. The last couple of years it's been split about 3 and 3, oWAR and dWAR.

Inside Edge has Heyward making 11 plays that were judged remote (1- 10%), unlikely (5- 10-40%), or even (5- 40-60). The rest - 300 or so chances - are routine. If you give him credit for 10 runs saved for each exceptional play, then he's a three WAR player on defense.

Using the same analysis, In 2013 CJ muffed 5 he should have made, but made 8 exceptional plays. So he was actually plus three. That's not terrible. It's actually okay. And it doesn't make that much difference. It makes some difference. But not a lot.

While the Inside Edge classification is subjective, I think the "science" behind UZR and DRS is subjective as well, right?

While I admire the attempt to quantify defense, I just can't agree with the kind of skewed result that I see taken as gospel by some here.
 
Memo to John Coppolella:

DO IT. Pull the trigger. Offer Justin Upton seven years, $130 million with an opt-out after three years. He's still only 28 years old, and could easily have MVP-like numbers in the new ballpark.
Move Olivera back to third base and put him on a freaking diet. Move Garcia to second and make Jace beat him out in spring training. Offer the loser in a package with Teheran to the Red Sox and whatever else it takes to get Benintendi.
Sign Fister.
Thank me later.
 
rico43 said:
Memo to John Coppolella:

DO IT. Pull the trigger. Offer Justin Upton seven years, $130 million with an opt-out after three years. He's still only 28 years old, and could easily have MVP-like numbers in the new ballpark.
Move Olivera back to third base and put him on a freaking diet. Move Garcia to second and make Jace beat him out in spring training. Offer the loser in a package with Teheran to the Red Sox and whatever else it takes to get Benintendi.
Sign Fister.
Thank me later.
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I concur (minus trading Julio)!
 
rico43 said:
Memo to John Coppolella:

DO IT. Pull the trigger. Offer Justin Upton seven years, $130 million with an opt-out after three years. He's still only 28 years old, and could easily have MVP-like numbers in the new ballpark.

Move Olivera back to third base and put him on a freaking diet. Move Garcia to second and make Jace beat him out in spring training. Offer the loser in a package with Teheran to the Red Sox and whatever else it takes to get Benintendi.

Sign Fister.

Thank me later.
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I'm down with it.
 
rico43 said:
Memo to John Coppolella:

DO IT. Pull the trigger. Offer Justin Upton seven years, $130 million with an opt-out after three years. He's still only 28 years old, and could easily have MVP-like numbers in the new ballpark.

Move Olivera back to third base and put him on a freaking diet. Move Garcia to second and make Jace beat him out in spring training. Offer the loser in a package with Teheran to the Red Sox and whatever else it takes to get Benintendi.

Sign Fister.

Thank me later.
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I think I could stomach Olivera at 3B, but Garcia at 2B???

Lost me - sorry.

(Not really sure why Boston would have any interest in Peterson or Garcia anyway.)
 
I'm a bit confused (nothing really new there) over the fact that Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes haven't signed yet. I thought the dominos would fall fairly quickly after Heyward signed. Could be those guys are pegging off Heyward's deal, but the difference for both of them is that they are both older than Heyward and there may be concerns about those two aging well.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
The defensive stats are horribly subjective and overweighted. You simply can't impact a game that much from the field - right field, third base, whatever.

Jason Heyward is, by consensus and by metric, the best defensive right fielder in baseball. His value in terms of the sabermatician's shorthand, WAR, is that of a "6 WAR" player. The last couple of years it's been split about 3 and 3, oWAR and dWAR.

Inside Edge has Heyward making 11 plays that were judged remote (1- 10%), unlikely (5- 10-40%), or even (5- 40-60). The rest - 300 or so chances - are routine. If you give him credit for 10 runs saved for each exceptional play, then he's a three WAR player on defense.

Using the same analysis, In 2013 CJ muffed 5 he should have made, but made 8 exceptional plays. So he was actually plus three. That's not terrible. It's actually okay. And it doesn't make that much difference. It makes some difference. But not a lot.

While the Inside Edge classification is subjective, I think the "science" behind UZR and DRS is subjective as well, right?

While I admire the attempt to quantify defense, I just can't agree with the kind of skewed result that I see taken as gospel by some here.
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I agree they overvalue defense compared to offense (Inciarte is NOT a 5 win player, for example), but they probably do a good job comparing defensive players to each other. So yes, CJ and his negative WAR in defense means he is a terrible defender compared to other MLB defenders.

Saying defensive metrics overvalue defense, thus CJ is a decent defender, is not a valid argument.

Defense aside, he is also terrible offensively. CJ is bad...at any price.

Someone like Freese on a below market deal could stabilize the 3B position for the next 2-3 years while the Braves try to climb back into relevance. He could bat 4th behind Freeman, and while he isn't an impact bat he could take pressure off developing guys like Olivera by allowing them to bat further down in the lineup.

Adonis Garcia is certainly not the answer to 3B (or any position), so sticking him out there accomplishes absolutely nothing.
 
50PoundHead said:
I'm a bit confused (nothing really new there) over the fact that Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes haven't signed yet. I thought the dominos would fall fairly quickly after Heyward signed. Could be those guys are pegging off Heyward's deal, but the difference for both of them is that they are both older than Heyward and there may be concerns about those two aging well.
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I still think Cespedes would be a good target for the Braves if his cost comes down to the $120M range. No idea what would be done with Olivera and/or Markakis, but Freeman and Cespedes batting 3/4 going into the new stadium would be a pretty good foundation to rebuild upon.
 
Enscheff said:
I agree they overvalue defense compared to offense (Inciarte is NOT a 5 win player, for example), but they probably do a good job comparing defensive players to each other. So yes, CJ and his negative WAR in defense means he is a terrible defender compared to other MLB defenders.

Saying defensive metrics overvalue defense, thus CJ is a decent defender, is not a valid argument.

Defense aside, he is also terrible offensively. CJ is bad...at any price.

Someone like Freese on a below market deal could stabilize the 3B position for the next 2-3 years while the Braves try to climb back into relevance. He could bat 4th behind Freeman, and while he isn't an impact bat he could take pressure off developing guys like Olivera by allowing them to bat further down in the lineup.

Adonis Garcia is certainly not the answer to 3B (or any position), so sticking him out there accomplishes absolutely nothing.
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Agree with everything but the highlight. That wasn't what I said. I showed you data from Inside Edge that distills ALL defensive plays into categories of routine, majority, half, rare and impossible. Then I demonstrated that Johnson actually made 300 routine plays, muffed 5 he should have made and made 8 that were exceptional.

To me, that's almost a textbook definition of an average defender. How can you say otherwise?

Now, if you tell me he's getting discarded or that we shouldn't resign him because .321 was unsustainable, he's no longer ripping 50 doubles and he's hitting .230, OBPing .270, I'm with you.

But yes, his defense is adequate. How can 5 bad plays out of 300, particularly offset by 8 good ones, matter in valuing the player?

Answer: They can't. And (as you point out, at least on Ender) Inciarte and Heyward aren't worth an additional $24m/yr because of their 3 WAR defense ($8m/WAR, right?). Even if they're really, really good.
 
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