Projecting Folty for 2017

LOL Folty would melt like nacho cheese in a microwave if even the tought came to him to appear in a playoff game.

Outstanding stuff but comparing him to Smoltz is absurd. Yes I know Smoltz had his issues early on in his career, but that was more related to confidence than anything after elbow injuries. Before that, he was one of the best young pitchers in the game, and had success and was arguably the best big game pitcher of his generation.
 
I'm with some of the crowd, I see a young Smoltz when I see Folty. That does not mean that I think Folty will make the HOF, but once he decreases his meltdowns he'll be a solid #2 and he'll have some legendary games at times. I see 15-10 with a 3.65 ERA in 2018.
 
I see Folty, Touki, Fried, and Allard in our rotation's future and it looks nasty. I think Folty will end up being a solid 2 or 3... He's made great strides this year and he's aware he lets the mental game get to him too much. He's working on that and the results have been promising as he's been getting out of some jams he would not have last year.
 
Southcack77 said:
Given how much more attention has been placed on velocity and Ks on pitching side wonder if you could find a correlation with the added distance.
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What is interesting is that this spike in homeruns has occurred at the same time we started getting a lot of Statcast data. We now know what the perfect launch angles for homeruns are and the exit velocity needed. Not sure if it's even possible for one to alter their swing to match what is needed for more homeruns but it is something to think about.
 
thewupk said:
What is interesting is that this spike in homeruns has occurred at the same time we started getting a lot of Statcast data. We now know what the perfect launch angles for homeruns are and the exit velocity needed. Not sure if it's even possible for one to alter their swing to match what is needed for more homeruns but it is something to think about.
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I wouldn't imagine that has much to do with it. When you take that many swings in the offseason/batting practice, I wouldn't think you really need that much data to know that altering your swing could get you added loft and distance, for example.

The really odd thing to me is that the middle portion of the league is way up while the very top really isn't. It will be another year with just a handful of guys at 40 HR and nobody at 50.
 
smootness said:
I wouldn't imagine that has much to do with it. When you take that many swings in the offseason/batting practice, I wouldn't think you really need that much data to know that altering your swing could get you added loft and distance, for example.

The really odd thing to me is that the middle portion of the league is way up while the very top really isn't. It will be another year with just a handful of guys at 40 HR and nobody at 50.
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It's not really that odd. Like I said balls have been going 3-5 feet farther this year than last. The majority of players that's going to have the biggest effect on is the middle tier who has warning track power. 3-5 feet isn't really going to help the big sluggers who when they get ahold of one it's going to go regardless. It's not going to help the Inciarte's either who have little power so 3-5 feet won't amount to much. Who is this going to help? Someone like Nick Markakis who had warning track power last year.
 
what about league avg pitch speed. I would think there is a correlation personally. if the avg speed of pitches tick up .4 mph, that might just be enough to make the ball go 5 ft. farther but not miss many more bats.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
what about league avg pitch speed. I would think there is a correlation personally. if the avg speed of pitches tick up .4 mph, that might just be enough to make the ball go 5 ft. farther but not miss many more bats.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=10&season=2016&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Average fastball velocity is 92.6 which is the highest it's been since 2008 (start of pitch/fx data). But it's been on a slow increase every year. In 2015 it was 92.4 and 2014 it was 92.1 I think it would have to be more than increased velocity.
 
thewupk said:
It's not really that odd. Like I said balls have been going 3-5 feet farther this year than last. The majority of players that's going to have the biggest effect on is the middle tier who has warning track power. 3-5 feet isn't really going to help the big sluggers who when they get ahold of one it's going to go regardless. It's not going to help the Inciarte's either who have little power so 3-5 feet won't amount to much. Who is this going to help? Someone like Nick Markakis who had warning track power last year.
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The way I see it, the 3-5 extra feet is going to help everybody roughly the same. The true power hitters still hit plenty of warning track fly balls; in fact, I would venture to guess they hit more than anybody since their balls travel further on average than everyone else.
 
smootness said:
The way I see it, the 3-5 extra feet is going to help everybody roughly the same. The true power hitters still hit plenty of warning track fly balls; in fact, I would venture to guess they hit more than anybody since their balls travel further on average than everyone else.
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It does help everybody. But those with warning track power hit more 'almost homeruns' than those with legit homerun power.
 
thewupk said:
It does help everybody. But those with warning track power hit more 'almost homeruns' than those with legit homerun power.
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But do we know this? I wouldn't think the only difference between big power hitters and guys with mediocre power is just the additional feet between a HR and a near-HR. I would think the balls that are near-HRs for mediocre power guys are HRs for the power guys, the balls that are just normal outfield fly balls for mediocre power guys become near-HR for power guys, and on and on.

It just doesn't seem logical to me that guys with 'warning track power' hit more 'almost HR'. I would think guys with HR power still hit plenty of warning track fly balls.
 
smootness said:
But do we know this? I wouldn't think the only difference between big power hitters and guys with mediocre power is just the additional feet between a HR and a near-HR. I would think the balls that are near-HRs for mediocre power guys are HRs for the power guys, the balls that are just normal outfield fly balls for mediocre power guys become near-HR for power guys, and on and on.

It just doesn't seem logical to me that guys with 'warning track power' hit more 'almost HR'. I would think guys with HR power still hit plenty of warning track fly balls.
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A few feet can mean a lot. Teams that have historically moved their fences in some have seen increased homerun rates. And I'm not saying the only difference between big power and mediocre power is a few feet. Just that mediocre power hitters have a higher % of their flyballs die at the warning track. Thus a few more feet will give them a higher % of added homeruns.
 
thewupk said:
A few feet can mean a lot. Teams that have historically moved their fences in some have seen increased homerun rates. And I'm not saying the only difference between big power and mediocre power is a few feet. Just that mediocre power hitters have a higher % of their flyballs die at the warning track. Thus a few more feet will give them a higher % of added homeruns.
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This is the part I'm unsure about. Do we know this to be the case, or are you assuming? Because again, that doesn't line up logically to me.
 
smootness said:
This is the part I'm unsure about. Do we know this to be the case, or are you assuming? Because again, that doesn't line up logically to me.
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I'm sure Statcast provides an average distance of a players flyballs but I don't know if that's public information right now. So for now, yes, I am assuming that. There has to be a reason that there is such an influx of homeruns by the middle class of power hitters so to speak.

Edit: And Jeff Sullivan says as much in his first question today.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-93016/

If someone has access to the data it could be something we can determine at some point down the road.
 
thewupk said:
I'm sure Statcast provides an average distance of a players flyballs but I don't know if that's public information right now. So for now, yes, I am assuming that. There has to be a reason that there is such an influx of homeruns by the middle class of power hitters so to speak.

Edit: And Jeff Sullivan says as much in his first question today.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-93016/

If someone has access to the data it could be something we can determine at some point down the road.
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That's fair. And I can see why it seems correct to some people, and it may end up being correct. It just doesn't seem correct to me.
 
Folty is personally my favorite young pitcher we have. I think his upside is unmatched and he's shown real positive growth this year. Power pitchers take time, but I think he's in line for a breakout next year
 
emk418 said:
Folty is personally my favorite young pitcher we have. I think his upside is unmatched and he's shown real positive growth this year. Power pitchers take time, but I think he's in line for a breakout next year
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I agree... And frankly, I am hopeful that Newcombe will follow a similar path. Come up next year to see some success,then really breakout the following year.
 
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