Projecting Out the Rebuild

smootness said:
My expectations are around .500 in 2017, a good team in 2018, and beginning to shape into a contender by 2019.
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So about 3 games better than my projections for 2017 and 2018 and a bit more in 2019. Our differences are "within the margin of error." At least for 2017 and 2018.

And yet in post 2 you say "I think you've lost your mind if you think we'll still be a below-.500 team come 2018, let alone 2017." Hyperbole?
 
First, you said 'below-.500' initially for 2018, then changed it to 81 wins. Second, I think we'll be a good team in 2018, meaning somewhere around 88-90 wins. That's not similar to what you said.

And third, you essentially stated it as a fact. That was my primary issue with it. Again, if you want to say it's a possibility, or even make a prediction, that we'll be below-.500 in 2018, fine. To say that is where we'll be is ludicrous to me.
 
smootness said:
First, you said 'below-.500' initially for 2018, then changed it to 81 wins. Second, I think we'll be a good team in 2018, meaning somewhere around 88-90 wins. That's not similar to what you said.

And third, you essentially stated it as a fact. That was my primary issue with it. Again, if you want to say it's a possibility, or even make a prediction, that we'll be below-.500 in 2018, fine. To say that is where we'll be is ludicrous to me.
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To me the word projection doesn't mean fact. I would use a stronger word than good to describe a team I exped to win 88-90 games.
 
nsacpi said:
To me the word projection doesn't mean fact. I would use a stronger word than good to describe a team I exped to win 88-90 games.
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Fair enough. But when I read, 'Prior to that materializing, we are mostly going to be a sub-.500 team,' I assume you're stating that as more than just a prediction.
 
Here’s my shot at compiling an 81 win scenario (33 WAR) for 2017 with what I feel are realistic assumptions. Overall payroll for this team is $120m, and only two of our current backend SP types are traded.

SP (12 WAR, $22m)
Teheran (3 WAR, $6.5m)
Newcomb / Blair / Wisler (3 WAR, $0.5m): Only one of these three emerges from the pack as a mid-rotation SP. The rest are hurt, or performing like backend SPs.
Brett Anderson (2 WAR, $13m): Doesn’t have to be Anderson specifically, but I think we’ll sign a mid-level vet.
Backend SPs (4 WAR, $2.0m): This accounts for the 4th and 5th rotation spots and spot-starts accumulated by our pre-arb SPs. Depth at the backend is a strength of our team.

RP (3 WAR, $15m)
Not going deep on this one, but plan would be to add 2-3 vets to what we already have. 3 WAR is just an average bullpen.

C (2 WAR, $6m)
We add Alex Avila to share time with Flowers. Neither hit well, and most of the value comes from Flowers’ defense.

1B (4 WAR, $21m)
Freeman

2B (1 WAR, $7m)
We sign a vet and he ruptures his achilles in ST. We try Jace, Castro, and Camargo here and none of them emerge. Albies not ready.

SS (3 WAR, $17m)
Aybar accepts the QO, and is just okay. Swanson is called up in the Summer after an Aybar injury and performs well.

3B (2 WAR, $13m)
Prado is signed for $10m AAV. KJ also sees time here due to injuries. Ruiz is a bust.

RF (3 WAR, $3m)
Inciarte takes over after Markakis is traded in 2016. He is a super two.

CF (2 WAR, $6m)
Mallex does not emerge as an everyday regular. Splits time with Rajai Davis.

LF (1 WAR, $10m)
Comedy of errors. Olivera performs poorly, then gets hurt. We trade a couple backend SP prospects for a backfill, and that player does not meet expectations.
 
dak said:
Here’s my shot at compiling an 81 win scenario (33 WAR) for 2017 with what I feel are realistic assumptions. Overall payroll for this team is $120m, and only two of our current backend SP types are traded.

SP (12 WAR, $22m)
Teheran (3 WAR, $6.5m)
Newcomb / Blair / Wisler (3 WAR, $0.5m): Only one of these three emerges from the pack as a mid-rotation SP. The rest are hurt, or performing like backend SPs.
Brett Anderson (2 WAR, $13m): Doesn’t have to be Anderson specifically, but I think we’ll sign a mid-level vet.
Backend SPs (4 WAR, $2.0m): This accounts for the 4th and 5th rotation spots and spot-starts accumulated by our pre-arb SPs. Depth at the backend is a strength of our team.

RP (3 WAR, $15m)
Not going deep on this one, but plan would be to add 2-3 vets to what we already have. 3 WAR is just an average bullpen.

C (2 WAR, $6m)
We add Alex Avila to share time with Flowers. Neither hit well, and most of the value comes from Flowers’ defense.

1B (4 WAR, $21m)
Freeman

2B (1 WAR, $7m)
We sign a vet and he ruptures his achilles in ST. We try Jace, Castro, and Camargo here and none of them emerge. Albies not ready.

SS (3 WAR, $17m)
Aybar accepts the QO, and is just okay. Swanson is called up in the Summer after an Aybar injury and performs well.

3B (2 WAR, $13m)
Prado is signed for $10m AAV. KJ also sees time here due to injuries. Ruiz is a bust.

RF (3 WAR, $3m)
Inciarte takes over after Markakis is traded in 2016. He is a super two.

CF (2 WAR, $6m)
Mallex does not emerge as an everyday regular. Splits time with Rajai Davis.

LF (1 WAR, $10m)
Comedy of errors. Olivera performs poorly, then gets hurt. We trade a couple backend SP prospects for a backfill, and that player does not meet expectations.
Click to expand...

I think this sort of scenario has a lot of plausibility to it. There are almost an equal number of projections I find optimistic as pessimistic. Also "within forecast error" of the 78 I came up with.
 
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