Question pertaining to 2017...

blueagleace1

blueagleace1

Playing the Waiting Game
Wanted everyone's opinion on a question, that I think hasn't been answered, and could potentially play a big role in building our club for 2017.

It's pretty evident that our front office is gearing up to be serious contenders come 2017, and with the new wild card format potentially sooner. So here it goes:

What will/can our payroll rise to in 2017? What do you think the maximum is? Will we be able to sign a pitcher -Price, Cueto, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Greinke to name a few- next offseason, then sign a big bat prior to the 2017 season? (Or vice-versa)

This to me is extremely important for one main reason: Are we going to be able to spend big on a free agent(s) or are we going to have to develop our team -Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Wood, Minor, Kimbrel, Gattis, Peraza, Markakis, Jenkins, Sims, Hursh, S. Simmons, Bethancourt, etc.- from what we already have on our big league club and in the minors. If we are going to have the financial flexibility to sign a big name or two then trading Upton for the most in return would seem to be a smart move. However, if we aren't going to have the money, then if/when Upton is traded we have to acquire assets that are close to being big-league ready and NOT just getting the "best bang for our buck".
 
The names you mention are free agents after the 2015 season. Who are the big free agents after 2016?
 
With the money inflation in baseball coupled with the projected increases in payroll I would guess we could up to 150 million. But mind you, everyone is gonna go up so in today's dollar its a moderate increase, but not a top 10 payroll by any means.
 
Our payroll should go up quite a bit bc of the new stadiums where others won't necessarily go up. I could see us going big after Price next year and then offense the year after. The new stadium will need some selling power on the team.
 
crazy

seems Cots got rid of their future free agents lists when they "updated" the site
 
I don't personally see us signing TWO headliners regardless of the potential payroll changes. Teheran, Wood, Miller, any SP acquired in any potential Upton or Gattis deal, Hale, Jenkins, Winkler, Hursh, and Sims will all be under team control in 2017 (not to mention we're now in position to take a faster-moving college arm as well as a riskier high school arm in the top 30-ish picks in this June's draft), leaving next winter as the only time to bid on a big right handed OF bat (Justin or Cespedes) to pair with Freeman, and the only real TOR arms are available next winter as well.

As chop2chip mentioned before, the salaries are only going to increase (likely exponentially) for RH power bats that reach free-agency, not to mention we'll still have a year of B. J.'s deal to ride out.

This is why I think it's so important to deal Justin or Gattis now for a high-ceiling arm that's ready to step into the rotation no later than 2016. If we could add a Walker/Gausman/Bundy/Ross now, we could then devote all available resources to landing Justin or Cespedes next winter - regardless of who else bids on them. If it takes 8 years and $200 million to get one of them we should be able to handle that even if it had to be backloaded a bit to get B. J.'s money off the books. If Minor has a bounceback year this season we could spin him off to a contender for another almost-ready Pitching prospect giving us several inexpensive 5th starter options in 2017.
 
An interesting point to remember is that the reworked regional TV deal was projected to bring us ~$500 million in additional revenues...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/05/braves-expect-major-revenue-boost-from-reworked-tv-deal.html

$300 million of that covered ALL the extensions (Freeman, Kimbrel, Simmons, Teheran, and Heyward) signed last winter, so those saying we ought to just keep Justin and extend him now are right when they say the money is there. The reason for "renting" him for 2015 is more of a smart business decision.

IF we trade him to build serious rotation depth we're still going to have plenty of money with the increasing national TV revenues and additional revenue streams from the new stadium to give him whatever he wants, but why miss the opportunity to add another inexpensive rotation option and other potential pieces if you've got the chance???

There's little doubt in my mind that we're in a position to match the highest bid for him next winter (AND have every intention of doing so).

"What does everyone think payroll is going to be in 2017? My guess would be $130M."

My honest guess is whatever it takes to have Justin in LF in 2017.
 
nsacpi said:
What does everyone think payroll is going to be in 2017? My guess would be $130M.
Click to expand...

I think they'll pump it up a bit more than that -- say $140MM+ -- in 2017/18/19 and then probably even out around that $130MM mark (in future dollars).
 
nsacpi said:
It went up in 2014.
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Only for special super duper emergency reasons. And even with that generous increase, we just barely got back to where we were over a decade ago. In real dollars we still aren't back to that level.

So yeah, I'll believe in a significant increase in payroll when I see it.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Only for special super duper emergency reasons. And even with that generous increase, we just barely got back to where we were over a decade ago. In real dollars we still aren't back to that level.

So yeah, I'll believe in a significant increase in payroll when I see it.
Click to expand...

Ownership along with John Hart has stated that the payroll will not go down from last years total.
 
Projecting salaries of players we have in 2017 it came to 116 million. That's obviously involves a lot of guess work on arbitration figures. Kimbrel/Teheran/Freeman/Simmons/Markakis will combine for 60 million. BJ/CJ will get another 25 million. Wood will be in the first year of arbitration, Gattis/Shelby their second, and Minor should be pretty expensive in his 4th year. I assumed 28 million for all of them. Then add in league minimums for the other spots and it's around 116 million.
 
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