Quiet Pursuit Of Cespedes?

thewupk said:
Heyward has also been a consistant player. You can say he is an underachiever and overvalued due to defense all you want. But signing guys who have great 2nd halfs when they rest of their careers are just good is a recipe for disaster. With Heyward you know what you are getting.
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I tend to agree. Heyward is going to get a lot of money. My guess is he'll try to sign a backloaded contract with a chance for him to opt out after three or four years. He hasn't hit for much power this year, but that can still develop. Cespedes is going to flat-out get a ton of coin and for five or six years, which is way too long for a guy who has really been up and down as a hitter. But the fact remains is that in an era when the big bopper seems to have vanished, those guys are going to be at a premium.
 
chop2chip said:
I don't know about that. They get their value in similar ways (great defense, good speed, and good offense), but they do same thing in very different ways.

If Cespedes has truly broken out as a 35 homerun guy then he is probably a clear cut above Heyward and probably most OF's in baseball.
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I was under the impression Cespedes was a below average defender and he hasn't really had good speed since his rookie year.
 
zbhargrove said:
I was under the impression Cespedes was a below average defender and he hasn't really had good speed since his rookie year.
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He's been slightly above average the last few years. Certainly not great, but fine. He'll probably come down to average or worse pretty quickly, though.
 
KB21 said:
Cespedes in the second half of this season has produced offensive numbers that Jason Heyward has never come close to touching. He's posting a 183 OPS+ with the Mets. Jason's previous career high was 123 in his rookie season. Cespedes has also always had more game power as well. Now, I would take a cautious approach with signing him, but Jason Heyward continues to be highly overrated for what he has done to this point in his career by most Braves fans. If anything, Jason Heyward is the definition of an underachiever. He has never played up to his talent.
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So you believe Ces is a 183+ player for the next 6 years? Or even once?
 
Perhaps the most valid concern is that the Mets fans will likely have an insurrection if they don't retain him. He's certainly carried them to the division title; any reason to think he won't be a big postseason factor as well?

As for Heyward, seems to me the Cardinals are having a big ol' stretch run choke similar to that of the Braves not all that long ago. If Heyward somehow plays a role in turning that around, then he'll achieve that special level of income. Otherwise, not happening.
 
smootness said:
He's been slightly above average the last few years. Certainly not great, but fine. He'll probably come down to average or worse pretty quickly, though.
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You have to look at large outliers like that. His UZR this season is way better than anything he's previously done in his career which would suggest SSS and not to expect it in the future. With that being said his DRS is the same this year as it was last year, +10, so there is a reason to believe that he might be that player right now. I wouldn't bet on him being a +10 guy but it's certainly possible for another year or two.
 
rico43 said:
Perhaps the most valid concern is that the Mets fans will likely have an insurrection if they don't retain him. He's certainly carried them to the division title; any reason to think he won't be a big postseason factor as well?

As for Heyward, seems to me the Cardinals are having a big ol' stretch run choke similar to that of the Braves not all that long ago. If Heyward somehow plays a role in turning that around, then he'll achieve that special level of income. Otherwise, not happening.
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I don't worship Heyward and tend to agree that he's not quite there, but he's the least of the Cardinals' problems. He's had a solid year after a slow start. Power still isn't there--at least in terms of HRs--but he's hit LHP better this year than in the past. I would have liked to see what he could have done under Seitzer's tutelage (and maybe we will, although I doubt it).
 
BRule said:
So you believe Ces is a 183+ player for the next 6 years? Or even once?
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At what point was that statement made?

Right now, Cespedes is the better player. Right now, Cespedes has always hit for much more power. Right now, Heyward has flashed Cespedes-level potential in short spurts - very short spurts.

Please evidence the reason you have for thinking Heyward will ever be better than the 123 he put up in his BEST season. Don't just ridicule someone because you point to a small sample size - Cespedes is no more the player he is RIGHT NOW than Heyward was in 2010 when he put up his best number...

Based on OPS+ when both players played:

2012:
Heyward - 117, Cespedes - 139

2013:
Heyward - 114, Cespedes - 103

2014:
Heyward - 108, Cespedes - 98

That eliminates the outliers from each player, no? Heyward has been more consistent, Cespedes' best was better. Both players' numbers have declined as the books on them have gotten better.

No one's said Heyward's not likely the better bet going forward, but it's not like he's a god. Does either "deserve" more money than Freeman because of their bat?

2012 - 113

2013 - 147

2014 - 138
 
50PoundHead said:
I tend to agree. Heyward is going to get a lot of money. My guess is he'll try to sign a backloaded contract with a chance for him to opt out after three or four years. He hasn't hit for much power this year, but that can still develop. Cespedes is going to flat-out get a ton of coin and for five or six years, which is way too long for a guy who has really been up and down as a hitter. But the fact remains is that in an era when the big bopper seems to have vanished, those guys are going to be at a premium.
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When is Heyward going to start hitting for more power, Fiddy? When he fills out some?

Just kiddin'. I do think your opt out makes a lot of sense.
 
zbhargrove said:
I was under the impression Cespedes was a below average defender and he hasn't really had good speed since his rookie year.
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He's graded out positively as a baserunner every year of his career FWIW, despite below average SB numbers.

And UZR and DRS has liked his defense for the last three years. I think we have a really solid sample size that shows he's a good to great defensive player.

All in all, he's a really tremendous player if you think he can slug close to .500, even with the mediocre plate discipline. Despite being 30, we have to remember this guy is in just his 4th big league season. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that some of this power spike is sustainable.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
When is Heyward going to start hitting for more power, Fiddy? When he fills out some?

Just kiddin'. I do think your opt out makes a lot of sense.
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I think Heyward has spent this year re-building himself to some extent. His contact rate looks to be much better. He's hitting LHP better. I'm guessing he will try to start turning on the ball as he progresses.

As per Cespedes, he's a good LF. I think the issue, if there is one, is that he was viewed as a possible CF when the A's first signed him and that didn't pan out. He's a big guy and a good athlete. I just don't know if he will continue to hit like he has.
 
clvclv said:
At what point was that statement made?

Right now, Cespedes is the better player. Right now, Cespedes has always hit for much more power. Right now, Heyward has flashed Cespedes-level potential in short spurts - very short spurts.

Please evidence the reason you have for thinking Heyward will ever be better than the 123 he put up in his BEST season. Don't just ridicule someone because you point to a small sample size - Cespedes is no more the player he is RIGHT NOW than Heyward was in 2010 when he put up his best number...

Based on OPS+ when both players played:

2012:
Heyward - 117, Cespedes - 139

2013:
Heyward - 114, Cespedes - 103

2014:
Heyward - 108, Cespedes - 98

That eliminates the outliers from each player, no? Heyward has been more consistent, Cespedes' best was better. Both players' numbers have declined as the books on them have gotten better.

No one's said Heyward's not likely the better bet going forward, but it's not like he's a god. Does either "deserve" more money than Freeman because of their bat?

2012 - 113

2013 - 147

2014 - 138
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No, Heyward is a roughly equivalent player to Cespedes right now and has flashed the potential to be much better.
 
smootness said:
No, Heyward is a roughly equivalent player to Cespedes right now and has flashed the potential to be much better.
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Defensively, sure. Offensively? Maybe when using the eye test, but given the fact that Cespedes had the highest sustained (at least full season) between the two and is in the middle of the insane hot streak he's on right now, I'd imagine it's pretty tough to say "much better" - I don't remember many players in the last 40 years having the potential to be "much better" over a quarter of a season than he's been since the Mutts got him - that'd have to be a historical couple months.

Nitpicking obviously, but I hope I'm still around to see someone that gets THAT hot - and even moreso that he does it in a Braves uniform!!!

FWIW, Chipper's July/August in 1999 looked like...

54 games, 245 PAs, 187 ABs, .369/.506/.791/1.317, 69 hits, 16 2Bs, 21 HRs, 42 RBIs, 10 SBs.
 
It would look good next year and maybe two after, but no on Cespedes.

Let's work on a catcher, 2B and some bullpen arms.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
It would look good next year and maybe two after, but no on Cespedes.

Let's work on a catcher, 2B and some bullpen arms.
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Not to hijack a thread, but I wonder if we would be open to looking at Ian Desmond for 2B. He might be a good buy low candidate, and could be willing to accept a shorter deal to rebuild his value.
 
It will be a mistake for whoever signs Cespedes, imo. Maybe the power is sustainable, but that's a huge risk as he's right at the age guys start declining. I've be really leery of signing a 30 year old with poor plate discipline and average defense for 5-8 years. Really, you are signing him and hoping he maintains a .200 isoslugging for a few years.
 
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