Certainly not when he's still 24 years old.
Quintana to Cubs
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
Certainly not when he's still 24 years old.
striker42
Well-known member
Sure he has plenty of time but he's got a tall order. And I'm not writing him off. Just saying that his face plant has hurt the Kimbrel trade at this point.
And you can see Wisler's struggles coming when you realize he only has two major league offerings and no real makings of a third. Also, he didn't have a ton of projection left.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Attaching BJ with Kimbrel was bad but in fairness to Coppy, no one saw the RP market blowing up the way it did.
After Kimbrel was traded, tons of RP's netted huge hauls now.
The Wood trade was obviously horrible. Gattis netted Folty who has been really solid this year.
JUp only had one year of control left, and not many teams are trading top 10 prospects for a guy with one year left.
Simmons netted Newcomb, time will tell on that one.
As someone else said, the White Sox had players with multiple years of control left, Braves didnt have that many of them who they traded.
After Kimbrel was traded, tons of RP's netted huge hauls now.
The Wood trade was obviously horrible. Gattis netted Folty who has been really solid this year.
JUp only had one year of control left, and not many teams are trading top 10 prospects for a guy with one year left.
Simmons netted Newcomb, time will tell on that one.
As someone else said, the White Sox had players with multiple years of control left, Braves didnt have that many of them who they traded.
In the contexts are WAR good all around players (aka no weaknesses) can be very valuable. The 65 FV ranking on Swanson pretty much says they expect him to be a ~4 WAR player aka regular all-star. He doesn't have the ceiling of Moncada but Moncada doesn't have the presumed floor of Swanson either. That matters in rankings like this.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I get it. I just don't agree.
And I don't see him as a consistent 4 WAR guy. Love to see him not miss so many pitches in the zone, especially fastballs. If he's not hitting 8th that OBP is awful. He's got to show some more power too if he's going to be a 750 plus OPS.
Giolito and Lopez have both taken hits in their rankings this year. And Giolito's stock had fallen already before this additional drop. I really have to think many here are complaining about the return for 6-fWAR Adam Eaton if it were two pitchers (!!) whose stocks dropped immediately after the trade.
He's looked like absolute crap this year no doubt. I honestly don't think anyone expected him to be this bad but Swanson was pretty well regarded by almost everyone coming into the year. I'm not giving up on him or anything but if he does bust it's just another example that prospect status doesn't mean jack. If the Braves get to a point where they have enough good prospects stick to make the major league team compete then I am trying to trade others to push the team over the edge.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I always find it amusing when people start talking about a prospect being a 4 or 5 win player. The percentage of even very highly rated prospects who develop into those kinds of players is very low. At the start of the season I put out a projection of 1.5 or 2 wins for Swanson for 2017 and even some of the "realists" around here thought that was low.
With Moncada being the center piece I doubt it. A 70 FV prospect is about as good as it gets (historical data only has Arod and Andruw reaching FV 75 status since 94 but that can be highly subjective) and I am curious as to how many of those types have actually been traded. I would say not many if any.
Of course the 4 win prediction is his ceiling in his prime. My thoughts on Swanson coming in were similar to yours. I thought he would be around a ~2 WAR player this season and develop into a 3-4 WAR player for most of his career. He obviously has the tools to do this.
You are still missing the point of evaluating the process vs the results. Fools evaluate a decision based on the results.
At the time, Hahn maximized his prospect return. What happened to the those prospects after the point of making the decision is irrelevant.
Coppy did not maximize the prospect return in many of the deals they made while rebuilding. That was the wrong process, and will forever have been the wrong process.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think we have to re-evaluate the hit tool some based on what we've seen this year.
The one player Coppy missed the boat on trading was Teheran. There were signs of regression coming and he had a great contract. Why he decided not to deal him makes no sense to me. Other than that, I don't really agree with the returns in some of them, but overall a decent job.
Making win now trades back then or now would be beyond stupid.
Making win now trades back then or now would be beyond stupid.
I'd agree. That K rate has to improve.
But how many pitchers of Sale's caliber with his years of cheap control get dealt? I can't think of the last time that happened.
Let's also remember Moncada has his faults. Almost 3 full years older than Acuna and, while Acuna's was a SSS, he had a lower k-rate at AA than Moncada has a AAA (almost 28%).
Kopech is plenty young, especially for his level, but the walks are really, really high. He has a crazy stuff, however. But if he doesn't work out that haul isn't so amazing.
when should they have dealt him and what was being offered for him at that time
yeah, and Judge's hit tool should've been notched way down after his 44% k-rate last year. Who knows if he'll ever be able to get better
Not many like Sale get dealt. But when they do they should bring back a ton which he did.
Moncada has his faults just like every prospect does. He's still the best prospect in baseball imo. He could bust or he could be a perennial MVP. Such is the life of a prospect.
Kopech does have great stuff and is comparable to any of our pitching prospects not named Wright imo.
The White Sox did very well for themselves in that trade and it's really hard to argue otherwise.