Tapate50
Well-known member
Only Brock Purdy can save us all from the cringe that is the Tswift, Kelce, Mahomes a thon.
Color me firmly in the Purdy bandwagon this weekend.
REAL FOOTBALL Thread
- Thread starter zitothebrave
- Start date
Only Brock Purdy can save us all from the cringe that is the Tswift, Kelce, Mahomes a thon.
Color me firmly in the Purdy bandwagon this weekend.
Tapate50
Well-known member
FWIW new article out that said basically that Bill Bellichek was going to get the job and but was not willing to relinquish any control what so ever in any capacity in Atlanta.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I think thats the right move for Atlanta if so. Bill the coach is alot different than Bill the GM. Plus it does look like Raheem is putting together a pretty damn good staff.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Atlanta has a team built to win, just need a QB. But i get not wanting to give Bill, FO control if that was the holdup.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
No, Mahomes family is cringy as hell, and his brother should be in jail. But rich people skirt the law all the time.
Ball family is like a weird cult. The dad reminds me of Joe Jackson.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I mean I can understand that sticking point for both. IMO Bill should have considered a Co-GM or something like that role with both him and TF reporting to Blank so Blank knows who's responsible for ****ups and can move the needle.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
His track record for judging talent is fine. New England's defense was still a top 10 defense last year. ANd probably is higher without some key injuries (mainly gonzalez and Marcus Jones) he's still the greatest defensive mind in th eNFL and excellent at that talent evaluation on defense. It's his offense that struggles, and that's due to value they used to get because of Brady. Brady oculd turn a meh receiver into a good one. A good into a great, and a great into an alltimer. Wes Welker is an amazing example of this. He was a good receiver ofr Miami, but went to NE and just killed it becoming one of the best in the league. Left New England and was good with Denver. He wasn't a bum Brady made elite, but he was a good player Brady made great. His job was also made easier because of hitting on Gronk, when you have one of the best TEs of all time, it makes building your offense so much easier.
I honestly think he would have been fine for Atlanta if he wasn't given Carte Blanche on the QB. Mac Jones destroyed that. IMO someone else should be looking at the QBs.
If they don't have a proven QB, they aren't built to win now.
4 of his last 5 drafts have been pretty mediocre in NE.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Perhaps. I mean looking at his last 5 drafts, using wAV to assess
2019 is pretty epically bad, the best player was Damien Harris, essentially a backup RB
2020 also pretty bad, Dugger and Onwenu are decent players, Jennings look decent.
2021 is defined by the mediocrity of Mac Jones. Rhondre looks like an OK pick.
2022 early return on Jones and Strange are good.
2023 has decent early returns with lots of guyts getting playing time, but I attribute tha tmostly to the pats being pretty bad. Gonzalez looks like a real one.
It's also worth noting that Belichick has had 1 pick in the top half (read 16 or higher) once since 2009. Since the first ring, since 04 he had 2 picks in the top half (the other being 2008 with Jerod Mayo) that pick they got from trades.
The number of high talents bill got from trades and signings and later picks are insane.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
A ton of rounds 4-7 picks doesn't matter that much. Your hit rate on those picks are minimal. Looking at the 2019 draft where the picks should be settled, the top 40 players in wAV has 4 of them were in rounds 4-7
In fact just to go for it let's break down the top 40 into round selected
1 - 20
2 - 8
3 - 8
4 - 2
5 - 1
6 - 1
7 - 0
Again having a ton of later picks isn't improving chances of getting great players.
Additional factor 29 players in that draft have made the pro-bowl of those 29 there were 6 probowlers, but 2 of them per a Kicker and Punter which you don't draft first 3 rounds. So 4 of 27 to be more fair to compare.
Really in that draft only 1 late pick really "made" it, Maxx Crosby. Firmly top 10, somewhere likely in the 4-8 range of that draft (1-3 being Brown, Bosa, and Murray)
With that in mind we look at his picks in the top 3 rounds by year
2019 - 5 - As I said an all time bad draft for sure.
2020 - 5 - No firsts, you give him a slight pass for that but his TE picks were epically poor.
2021 - 3
2022 - 3
2023 - 3
Again he had a few bad drafts, but I wouldn't say he's lost it. Having a ton of late draft picks doesn't really matter. It's a bit like hitting the lottery, more chances you have to hit the better.
FWIW since 2019 he's drafted 12 playyers with a wAV of 10 or higher, Titans in that same time frame had 7 (though their 2019 draft kind of rocked and was for sure better than any belichick draft by a mile, AJ Brown alone insures that but Jeffrey Simmons was also a great pick) Jets have had a ton of high picks, and have 11, of course the top hits so much harder with Williams, Sauce, and Garrett Wilson looking great, and Jermaine Johnson and Breese Hall also looking great but getting those guys they picked in the top 10 4 times, picked top 15 7 times.
Belichick's issue is he hasn't hit on his guys, he hasn't had a probowler explode but has drafted good players.
I think much was made about Belichick sucking and he didn't have many good drafts, with 2019 being a boner draft, he could have flipped that around with a few better picks for sure (Imagine if Instead of Harry, WIlliams, Harris and Cajuste, he took Deebo, Miles Sanders, Okereke, Pipkins, Julian Love, would be a huge swap adding 2 impact players and other starters instead of many meh players) 2020 also had some clear misses Ushe instead of Logan Wilson, and his bad pick of 2 TEs, one isn't in the league anymore, but aside from Biadasz, no one taken after them went that hard.
Mac Jones in 2021 wound up bombing out for BB, but he wasn't a terrible pick, a stretch but not terrible, looking at guys going after him, no one behind him was a beast, 2021 lots of teams ****ed up that draft, Belichick came out looking good, he could have been the Jets taking Zach Wilson, Niners trading the farm for Trey Lance, Falcons taking Pitts instead of Chase, Every team in the top 10 who didn't take Micah Parsons easily the top player in that draft. 2022 is a bit of a new draft, Strange wasn't a horrible pick if your'e going for need you could argue they would have been better off staying at 21 and taking Tyler Smith, Thorton over Pickens was a mistake, that's clear, Jones obviosuly a hit, for those later guys, only like names that went late are Bland, Wollen, WIlliams and Purdy. Purdy wouldn't have been successful in NE, etc.
2023 most draft experts gave the pats a good grade, Gonzalez being a steal, and people dogging him only really on his reaches (andrews and Ryland)
You're wasting too much bandwidth defending BB. The best GMs have a pretty decent hit rate on mid-late round picks. Not only is BB failing on pretty much every mid-late rounder, he's missed on several of his early round picks lately as well. He has mad mediocre drafts and not surprisingly his record without Brady has been mediocre/bad.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Majority of his record without Brady was the tail end of New England, and Cleveland.
His top 5 in terms of QB appearances are Brady, Mac Jones, Vinnie Testeverde, Bernie Kosar, and Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe is easily the second best. Testeverde was a good QB, but he was kind of like the Ryan Fitzpatrick of his era. Kosar was a decent QB. Mac Jones sucks.
I think the argument for Belichick was in the middle of their run BRady missed basically a whole season, Matt Cassel had a 10-5 record. He also in 2016 when BRady was hurt went 3-1 in games where Tom wasn't playing with Brissett getting a win and loss and Jimmy G going 2-0. Brady obviously is the GOAT at QB. He made every team better he played on, but Belichick is also the GOAT as a coach. His abiltiy to consistently field a top defense despite picking in the bottom of the draft all the time.
In the past 24 years, only 3 times were the pats not top 10 in Yards or Points allowed, and 9 times weree top 10 in both. Compare them to a historically great defense, Pittsburgh had 4 times not in the top 10 and 12 times in both. That's something pretty awesome.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
So been lots of thinking before the Superb Owl, about the falcons.
Falcons are a bit in a spot. I see they have 3 options for QB
1. Draft a QB, this likely means trading up. Now the reality is that after the Pats draft, most likely none of the teams after them will take a QB. But other teams have QB needs who could trade up in front of Atlanta. Reality is there's a good chance with no trades the Falcons could get Daniels at 8. I think the Pats don't go for a QB and instead go for MHjr. Hell Bears could go and not take a QB. Unlikely. But it could happen.
2. Sign a QB - With likely the Broncos cutting RUss, the Falcons should be able to gamble on getting a decent Vet and then could draft a QB.
3. Trade for a QB - Fields is almost certainly on the market, this is one where you wait til after the draft though. Bears are asking a 1 for him. I wouldn't give up anything higher than a 4 for him. After the draft or on draft day they'll get more nervous as the day goes on. Once they take a QB they have no trade leverage. Another option would be to talk to Dallas about Lance.
Falcons are a bit in a spot. I see they have 3 options for QB
1. Draft a QB, this likely means trading up. Now the reality is that after the Pats draft, most likely none of the teams after them will take a QB. But other teams have QB needs who could trade up in front of Atlanta. Reality is there's a good chance with no trades the Falcons could get Daniels at 8. I think the Pats don't go for a QB and instead go for MHjr. Hell Bears could go and not take a QB. Unlikely. But it could happen.
2. Sign a QB - With likely the Broncos cutting RUss, the Falcons should be able to gamble on getting a decent Vet and then could draft a QB.
3. Trade for a QB - Fields is almost certainly on the market, this is one where you wait til after the draft though. Bears are asking a 1 for him. I wouldn't give up anything higher than a 4 for him. After the draft or on draft day they'll get more nervous as the day goes on. Once they take a QB they have no trade leverage. Another option would be to talk to Dallas about Lance.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
If Daniels falls past NE, someone would trade up for him in the 4-7 range for sure. Way it is nowadays.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Brock Purdy is not close to the best QB over the last year and a half. Purdy is doing well, but he's not that great.
Tua's been better if you're going with QBs with multiple elite weapons, Mahomes has been better. Goff's also been better, etc.
Purdy's been the best game manager in that time frame, but he isn't trusted to win games like Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, etc. ANyone with 2 eyes can see that.