Real or mirage?
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
D'arnaud -- .320/.393/.480 - good start by a AAAA player
Beckham -- .340/.421/.480 - not this good, but can probably be a bench option for a good club
Aybar -- .174/.207/.205 - not really this bad
Folty -- 2.89 era 1.18 whip - can certainly be this good, but expect more bumps in the road for now
Cervanka -- 2.19 era 1.14 whip - no idea, but unknown LHers out of the BP are volatile
Beckham -- .340/.421/.480 - not this good, but can probably be a bench option for a good club
Aybar -- .174/.207/.205 - not really this bad
Folty -- 2.89 era 1.18 whip - can certainly be this good, but expect more bumps in the road for now
Cervanka -- 2.19 era 1.14 whip - no idea, but unknown LHers out of the BP are volatile
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
D'Arnaud--mirage
Beckham--not likely to sustain, but a good bench player...looked good in spring training to me...would bring him back in 2017
Aybar--I think he's just going through a major post-partum depression...may not emerge from it until he leaves the Braves
Folty--expect him to stick in the Braves rotation, significant upside
Cervanka--useful LOOGY, keep away from RHH
Bonus unasked question:
Brignac--he's 30 but occasionally a player will improve in their late 20s or 30s. His AAA numbers in 2014 and 2015 showed an improvement in the walk rate. He look very good in spring training. Hit well in AAA this year in 103 PAs, building on the improved walk rate from 2014-15. I think he is more likely to be a useful ML bench player than D'Arnaud.
Beckham--not likely to sustain, but a good bench player...looked good in spring training to me...would bring him back in 2017
Aybar--I think he's just going through a major post-partum depression...may not emerge from it until he leaves the Braves
Folty--expect him to stick in the Braves rotation, significant upside
Cervanka--useful LOOGY, keep away from RHH
Bonus unasked question:
Brignac--he's 30 but occasionally a player will improve in their late 20s or 30s. His AAA numbers in 2014 and 2015 showed an improvement in the walk rate. He look very good in spring training. Hit well in AAA this year in 103 PAs, building on the improved walk rate from 2014-15. I think he is more likely to be a useful ML bench player than D'Arnaud.
We should hope Beckham stays hot for a week and then trade him asap. He can probably pull what Aybar couldn't.
striker42
Well-known member
D'arnaud -- .320/.393/.480 0.2 dWAR
Mirage- No way he keeps this up. He didn't go from being a .250 hitter in AAA to being starting major league quality.
Beckham -- .340/.421/.480
Mostly Mirage- I think he might have developed his game a little with better plate discipline but he's still got a ridiculously high BABIP. So maybe a better player than he's been but not a star or even a starter.
Aybar -- .174/.207/.205
Mirage- Aybar is bad but he's nowhere near this bad. He probably should have a batting average 50 points or so higher.
Folty -- 2.89 era 1.18 whip
Semi-Mirage- I expect Folty to be better than last year but he's not suddenly an ace. He'll have ace starts and he'll have terrible starts like young, talented pitchers often do. I think an ERA in the high 3's to low 4's is more reasonable.
Cervanka -- 2.19 era 1.14 whip
Real deal- Relievers are unpredictable from year to year. Cervanka is for real right now. Whether he carries it forward in his career is a different story.
Mirage- No way he keeps this up. He didn't go from being a .250 hitter in AAA to being starting major league quality.
Beckham -- .340/.421/.480
Mostly Mirage- I think he might have developed his game a little with better plate discipline but he's still got a ridiculously high BABIP. So maybe a better player than he's been but not a star or even a starter.
Aybar -- .174/.207/.205
Mirage- Aybar is bad but he's nowhere near this bad. He probably should have a batting average 50 points or so higher.
Folty -- 2.89 era 1.18 whip
Semi-Mirage- I expect Folty to be better than last year but he's not suddenly an ace. He'll have ace starts and he'll have terrible starts like young, talented pitchers often do. I think an ERA in the high 3's to low 4's is more reasonable.
Cervanka -- 2.19 era 1.14 whip
Real deal- Relievers are unpredictable from year to year. Cervanka is for real right now. Whether he carries it forward in his career is a different story.