Revised (August 20) Top 30 Braves Prospects (MLB.com)

rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
ON the heels of the Top 100 prospects, the team-by-team rankings have been posted on MLB.com. Agree with the sentiment that these lists don't mean much past the top five, but are good for casual fans to get acquianted with the next wave of young players and are grist for the message board mill. So, chatter away:

1. Cristian Pache (OF)
2. Shea Langeliers (C)
3. Drew Waters (OF)
4. Michael Harris (OF)
5. Kyle Muller (LHP) *This should answer the spec on his status on the Top 100 list. Harris was 98th.
6. Ryan Cusick (RHP) (2021 1st round draftee)
7. Tucker Davidson (LHP)
8. Braden Shewmake (SS)
9. Jared Shuster (LHP)
10. Spencer Strider (RHP)

11. Bryce Elder (RHP)
12. Freddy Tarnok (RHP)
13. Vaughn Grissom (SS)
14. Joey Estes (RHP)
15. Spencer Schwellenbach (SS/RHP) (2021 2nd round draftee; still awaiting his debut)
16. Cal Conley (SS) (2021 4th round draftee)
17. Jesse Franklin V (OF)
18. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP) (2021 7th round draftee)
19. Dylan Dodd (LHP) (2021 3rd round draftee)
20. Victor Vodnik (RHP)

21. Indigo Diaz (RHP)
22. Jasseel de la Cruz (RHP)
23. Darius Vines (RHP)
24. Trey Harris (OF)
25. Justin Dean (OF)
26. Ambioris Taravez (SS)
27. Daysbel Hernandez (RHP)
28. William Woods (RHP)
29. Luke Waddell (SS) (2021 5th round draftee)
30. Jared Johnson (RHP)
 
A couple of initial thoughts:

Vodnik was the only high school player picked in 2019 draft, but two trips to IL this year

No love for 6th round pick Malloy despite decent start (.294 in 11 games)

I think catchers Liam McGill (9th), Zebrowski (13th) and Tolve (17th) all have a chance to be this draft's Bryce Ball.
McGill hit .471 at little Bryant College then hit grand slam in pro debut. Was a transfer from Columbia where he hit .320 and .299 his last two full seasons.
Zebrowski had ridiculous stats at St. John's Fisher College (.500 average; 70 RBIs in 38 games? C'mon; why was he even pitched to?) Has hit .286 with five RBIs in five complex games.
Tolve -- rooting for a dark-horse pick here, I know -- hit .329 at Kennesaw but 52Ks in 51G. Started out with homer, five RBIs at Augusta, moved back to complex now.
 
Schwellenbach just had arm surgery and he may not debut until 2023 (or at least mid-2022), so I'm a bit puzzled by where he's ranked.

I thought Grissom and Estes might be a little higher given how well they've played in Augusta, but it is Low-A after all.
 
I don't get Davidson in the top 10. I think he's shown he's a swing starter/5 and has an injury. He's older. He should not be in our top 15. I do not see why he's ranked over Elder. I would think both would be very similar. Davidson has done more but has limited upside and is injured. The really high velocity is only in driveline videos.
 
I will be excited to see Tavarez in pro season action... sounds like the plan was for him to get comfortable the entire year at our complex in the Dominican Republic. My guess is we won't see him in actual pro ball games until next year.

I think Malloy is a real underrated dark horse. He's going to surprise some people. I'm also interested in these small school offensive catcher mashers we picked up. Seems like they are already having some success early.
 
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Russ2dollas said:
I don't get Davidson in the top 10. I think he's shown he's a swing starter/5 and has an injury. He's older. He should not be in our top 15. I do not see why he's ranked over Elder. I would think both would be very similar. Davidson has done more but has limited upside and is injured. The really high velocity is only in driveline videos.
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Maybe they were taking into account the success he had at the major league level this year
 
I like the top 5 and understand the reasoning behind Nos. 6 - 10. I'm normally not high on catchers unless they're just an unreal talent but I might put Shea as my No. 1 given his defense, strong hitting numbers and consistent improvements. He and Bill will be a great catching tandem for years to come. I'm still extremely high on Pache and see his recent adjustment as being pivotal - he's doing a great job at breaking his swing down, making compact load shifts (that's what she said), and getting the barrel to the ball quicker.

Also, Michael Harris will be atop this list in the next year or two.
 
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My thoughts when looking at this list are that even with the international sanctions, low draft position due to major league success, and graduating plenty of high end talent, we still have a very solid system that should at least be able to supplement the contention window as long as Acuna/Albies are here.
 
It looks like Lango was the only real positive this season as far as potential impact players go.

Pache flopped miserably, Waters continues to disappoint, Contreras has a hard time catching the ball, and it looks like maybe Harris was a bit overhyped with the "LHH Acuna" comments.

The system is pretty bad right now. Luckily AA was somehow able to rebuild the OF without giving up any of whatever prospect capital is still in the system.
 
NYCBrave said:
My thoughts when looking at this list are that even with the international sanctions, low draft position due to major league success, and graduating plenty of high end talent, we still have a very solid system that should at least be able to supplement the contention window as long as Acuna/Albies are here.
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If by "solid" you mean bottom 6, then sure.
 
NYCBrave said:
My thoughts when looking at this list are that even with the international sanctions, low draft position due to major league success, and graduating plenty of high end talent, we still have a very solid system that should at least be able to supplement the contention window as long as Acuna/Albies are here.
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I just don't see a lot of high-ceiling guys. Pache and Waters have hit plateaus. That dosen't mean they can't take the next step and if they do, it would clearly help. M. Harris II is further away, so it's too early to tell. Langeliers should be a solid contributor.

Part of it is drafting in the lower half of rounds and having a smaller bonus pool, but the debate rages as to whether they should take a few more tools-centric guys in the earlier rounds as opposed to waiting post-Round 10. Having Albies and Acuna slated to be around for an extended period lessens the pressure to produce additional potential core players, but the system really lacks pizzazz. Granted, we've had a lot of graduations and the international sanctions have decimated a talent stream that at least supplies greater depth.
 
Enscheff said:
If by "solid" you mean bottom 6, then sure.
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I haven't seen anyone rank us nearly that low. Look at the Phillies and Nationals (prior to trade deadline). Now those are two horrendous systems. We may not have star upside pieces, but we certainly have some pieces that could be useful while cheap and our core is expensive.
 
SL is really good, there just seem to be a bunch of catching prospects right now that people seem positive will hit. Mets have one. SL still seems like a guy people think will be league avg or so with the bat. His defense at C with a 100 wrc+ would still be super valuable, but it's not the ceiling of some of these guys.

I think people are way too off on Contreras. He was put forward as the main guy w/o any at bats above AA. He can hit based on what I saw last year. He's hitting in AAA. He can catch. They gave him this new stance to catch in and brand new pitchers. He is going to be good.

Wright not even being a back end guy really hurts.

Harris still looks like a potential impact guy, but it's potential. I think he showed this year he's not an Acuna. IF he was he'd of shot right up like those guys all do. Still tooled up and young. Good defender. Good arm. Good production.

Strider and Elder in different ways have been really good for the system.

I still think Waters and Pache are going to be 2+ WAR guys. Question will be if they can come close to their impact potential. Still young. Not going to be super stars but could still be good.

Braves lack true impact guys IMO unless you count Harris, Strider and Cusick. Strider and Cusick are unlikely to meet that potential, but it is there.

Feels like a middle of the road, 10-15 farm to me.

Still have guys like Acuna, Albies, Fried and Anderson who I think are impact guys less than 25. Riley may prove that too. I think Fried and Riley are really close to 25 if Max isn't there already.
 
Nerfherders said:
Franklin at 17 seems low.
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I think as a college guy most people don't care what he does until AA. I know he's less developed than some college guys b/c of injury and at bats at college, but I still am not buying in until AA.

That said, anyone 11-20 are pretty dang similar to me. I don't think I'd argue hard about any order of those guys.
 
Enscheff said:
If by "solid" you mean bottom 6, then sure.
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Not sure I'd go quite that far just yet, bur it's certainly not in the top half. Not exactly surprising you'd cut and run early on several of these guys, but you're certainly not alone there.

Pache and Waters both still have incredibly high ceilings, and they're both roughly a year and a half younger than Riley. Both have been rushed, and that's hurt their development. Pache's hot two-week stretch has now extended to three weeks, and although Waters' numbers have been disappointing overall, his OBP this month is .400 and he's 20/26 in SBs for the year, so he's shown he can run pretty successfully against Pitchers with tougher moves as he continues to climb the ladder.

This is Harris' first year of full season ball - while Chipper should never have said what he did, he's been pretty good. Shewmake's changes seem to have taken and he's got far more upside than most give him credit for.

With d'Arnaud extended, Contreras probably becomes a utility guy - playing all over the place to get his bat in the lineup. He suddenly becomes a really good DH option on the cheap in 2022 and could provide tons of flexibility.

There are still plenty of arms with pretty big upside - and more importantly time to develop.


These guys aren't going to come as fast as Acuna/Ozzie/Anderson did, but there's still a lot of talent in this system.
 
clvclv said:
Not sure I'd go quite that far just yet, bur it's certainly not in the top half. Not exactly surprising you'd cut and run early on several of these guys, but you're certainly not alone there.

Pache and Waters both still have incredibly high ceilings, and they're both roughly a year and a half younger than Riley. Both have been rushed, and that's hurt their development. Pache's hot two-week stretch has now extended to three weeks, and although Waters' numbers have been disappointing overall, his OBP this month is .400 and he's 20/26 in SBs for the year, so he's shown he can run pretty successfully against Pitchers with tougher moves as he continues to climb the ladder.

This is Harris' first year of full season ball - while Chipper should never have said what he did, he's been pretty good. Shewmake's changes seem to have taken and he's got far more upside than most give him credit for.

With d'Arnaud extended, Contreras probably becomes a utility guy - playing all over the place to get his bat in the lineup. He suddenly becomes a really good DH option on the cheap in 2022 and could provide tons of flexibility.

There are still plenty of arms with pretty big upside - and more importantly time to develop.


These guys aren't going to come as fast as Acuna/Ozzie/Anderson did, but there's still a lot of talent in this system.
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This is a good post. Thanks Clv.
 
clvclv said:
Not sure I'd go quite that far just yet, bur it's certainly not in the top half. Not exactly surprising you'd cut and run early on several of these guys, but you're certainly not alone there.

Pache and Waters both still have incredibly high ceilings, and they're both roughly a year and a half younger than Riley. Both have been rushed, and that's hurt their development. Pache's hot two-week stretch has now extended to three weeks, and although Waters' numbers have been disappointing overall, his OBP this month is .400 and he's 20/26 in SBs for the year, so he's shown he can run pretty successfully against Pitchers with tougher moves as he continues to climb the ladder.

This is Harris' first year of full season ball - while Chipper should never have said what he did, he's been pretty good. Shewmake's changes seem to have taken and he's got far more upside than most give him credit for.

With d'Arnaud extended, Contreras probably becomes a utility guy - playing all over the place to get his bat in the lineup. He suddenly becomes a really good DH option on the cheap in 2022 and could provide tons of flexibility.

There are still plenty of arms with pretty big upside - and more importantly time to develop.


These guys aren't going to come as fast as Acuna/Ozzie/Anderson did, but there's still a lot of talent in this system.
Click to expand...

I like Contreras and I think he can hit, but I don't see why you'd think he'd hit enough to be a bat somewhere other than catcher.

I agree Waters was rushed. But they may have felt he needed to get to AAA for his approach to be picked on enough for him to learn. Pache's been in the minors for a long time.

Everyone in your system isn't a star or awful. It does seem that way in the last 5 years or so with the braves. I guess Dansby has been our middle guy, but playing like a star now. Getting some lower cost guys who are good players would be a good outcome too.
 
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