Revised (August 20) Top 30 Braves Prospects (MLB.com)

Russ2dollas said:
I like Contreras and I think he can hit, but I don't see why you'd think he'd hit enough to be a bat somewhere other than catcher.

I agree Waters was rushed. But they may have felt he needed to get to AAA for his approach to be picked on enough for him to learn. Pache's been in the minors for a long time.

Everyone in your system isn't a star or awful. It does seem that way in the last 5 years or so with the braves. I guess Dansby has been our middle guy, but playing like a star now. Getting some lower cost guys who are good players would be a good outcome too.
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Getting him out from behind the plate will allow him to focus more on hitting. There's no questioning the fact that the toughest thing for a MLB player to do is perform offensively while handling those responsibilities. He's plenty athletic enough to handle playing 1B or LF defensively as a part-time guy, and he's consistently been referred to as a pretty special bat if you could get the weight of having to handle a staff off his shoulders. If he doesn't have to focus on anything other than hitting he's going to be a lot better than people think.
 
NYCBrave said:
I haven't seen anyone rank us nearly that low. Look at the Phillies and Nationals (prior to trade deadline). Now those are two horrendous systems. We may not have star upside pieces, but we certainly have some pieces that could be useful while cheap and our core is expensive.
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Well...here you go. This is a quantitative analysis based on historic prospect valuations, not some hemming and hawing by writers.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects...ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

This system is not good, no matter how much folks want to squint and say "yeah but what about...".

The closest thing they have to an impact MLB player right now is Lango and Pache who already had a significant crash and burn. The Nats just added 2 guys more valuable than anything the Braves have.
 
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Enscheff said:
Well...here you go. This is a quantitative analysis based on historic prospect valuations, not some hemming and hawing by writers.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects...ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

This system is not good, no matter how much folks want to squint and say "yeah but what about...".

The closest thing they have to an impact MLB player right now is Lango and Pache who already had a significant crash and burn. The Nats just added 2 guys more valuable than anything the Braves have.
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The nats also gave up one of the best players in the nl east
 
clvclv said:
Getting him out from behind the plate will allow him to focus more on hitting. There's no questioning the fact that the toughest thing for a MLB player to do is perform offensively while handling those responsibilities. He's plenty athletic enough to handle playing 1B or LF defensively as a part-time guy, and he's consistently been referred to as a pretty special bat if you could get the weight of having to handle a staff off his shoulders. If he doesn't have to focus on anything other than hitting he's going to be a lot better than people think.
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I just disagree. I don't see him as a guy who is going to have the 850+ OPS that you want at corner OF or 1B.

He's raking at AAA in a SSS, so I hope I'm wrong.

I think he's a 750-800 OPS guy. I'm not putting that guy at LF or 1B or DH. Plus bat at C, but good anywhere else he can play. Swing seems much more of a gap power guy than a loft for HR swing. Body does not look like a body that will age well or stay very agile.

I'd be happy to be wrong.
 
Enscheff said:
Well...here you go. This is a quantitative analysis based on historic prospect valuations, not some hemming and hawing by writers.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects...ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

This system is not good, no matter how much folks want to squint and say "yeah but what about...".

The closest thing they have to an impact MLB player right now is Lango and Pache who already had a significant crash and burn. The Nats just added 2 guys more valuable than anything the Braves have.
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I understand that you hold Fangraphs as your bible, and it goes without saying they are the industry standard. But their approach to ranking systems is a bit different than many other outlets. Where I've seen the Braves ranked typically post draft is 15-20. Not great by any means, but like I said, solid all things considered. Coming off of 3 straight division titles, international sanctions, and promoting young studs, we could easily be dead last, is all I'm saying.
 
clvclv said:
Getting him out from behind the plate will allow him to focus more on hitting. There's no questioning the fact that the toughest thing for a MLB player to do is perform offensively while handling those responsibilities. He's plenty athletic enough to handle playing 1B or LF defensively as a part-time guy, and he's consistently been referred to as a pretty special bat if you could get the weight of having to handle a staff off his shoulders. If he doesn't have to focus on anything other than hitting he's going to be a lot better than people think.
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I first thought this was a nonsense statement. Then I looked at some of his statcast metrics.

Average FB/LD exit velocity in 2021:
Acuna 97.9 (man he is good)
Joc 95.9
Soler 95.8
Freeman 95.8
Contreras 95.8
Riley 95.2

So Contreras truly does have legit middle of the order juice in that bat.

He ran into some serious K issues at the MLB level, but I remember his plate discipline being fine early before struggling later.

It's not outlandish to suggest he could be a corner guy if the catcher thing proves beyond his capabilities.
 
I believe Matt wisler, allard, and Wright were all top 100 guys at one time. I really wonder how much stock to put in these lists outside the top 25-30. Outside of that, I think it's a crap shoot.
 
Enscheff said:
I first thought this was a nonsense statement. Then I looked at some of his statcast metrics.

Average FB/LD exit velocity in 2021:
Acuna 97.9 (man he is good)
Joc 95.9
Soler 95.8
Freeman 95.8
Contreras 95.8
Riley 95.2

So Contreras truly does have legit middle of the order juice in that bat.

He ran into some serious K issues at the MLB level, but I remember his plate discipline being fine early before struggling later.

It's not outlandish to suggest he could be a corner guy if the catcher thing proves beyond his capabilities.
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Wow, could there be some SSS in that?
 
Enscheff said:
I first thought this was a nonsense statement. Then I looked at some of his statcast metrics.

Average FB/LD exit velocity in 2021:
Acuna 97.9 (man he is good)
Joc 95.9
Soler 95.8
Freeman 95.8
Contreras 95.8
Riley 95.2

So Contreras truly does have legit middle of the order juice in that bat.

He ran into some serious K issues at the MLB level, but I remember his plate discipline being fine early before struggling later.

It's not outlandish to suggest he could be a corner guy if the catcher thing proves beyond his capabilities.
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If the DH is here next season, Contreras should be our 3rd catcher while also filling in at LF/RF and 1B. That’s what the Dodgers and Rays would do.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I just disagree. I don't see him as a guy who is going to have the 850+ OPS that you want at corner OF or 1B.

He's raking at AAA in a SSS, so I hope I'm wrong.

I think he's a 750-800 OPS guy. I'm not putting that guy at LF or 1B or DH. Plus bat at C, but good anywhere else he can play. Swing seems much more of a gap power guy than a loft for HR swing. Body does not look like a body that will age well or stay very agile.

I'd be happy to be wrong.
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You realize that there are only 31 players in MLB with an OPS of .850 or higher in 2021, right? That's one per team - not one at 1B and 2 in the OF corners. If you break that list down and adjust that to reflect that the Reds have 4 (Winker, Votto, Castellanos, and India), the Dodgers have 4 (Muncy, Betts, Turner, and Will Smith), the Jays have 3 (Vlad Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, and Semien), Boston has 3 (Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez), the Braves have 2 (Freeman and Riley), the Giants have 2 (Crawford and Bryant), and the Astros have 2 (Alvarez and Tucker) there are 12 teams that don't have a single player with an .850 OPS (and those 12 DON'T include Pittsburgh or Baltimore).

Just how many of those guys do you think there are???
 
msstate7 said:
I believe Matt wisler, allard, and Wright were all top 100 guys at one time. I really wonder how much stock to put in these lists outside the top 25-30. Outside of that, I think it's a crap shoot.
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I don't think Allard was, but I'm having a difficult time looking that up. I know Wisler was and believe that Wright was as well. Baseball Reference used to have Prospect Rankings listed on each player's home page, but it looks like that information was removed.

I think after the first five guys on the list, you could turn the crank on the bingo cage and pull out a player's name and rank them in that manner. A couple of guys have fallen--thinking de la Cruz as the most obvious and probably biggest drop--and they've tossed in five 2021 draftees. Why Waddell over Malloy or Collins? Not that it isn't true, but I'd still like to know the reasoning.

I don't know if Baseball Prospectus still analyzes prospects this way, but they used to give a prospect two rankings: (1) potential ceiling and (2) percentage chance of reaching that ceiling. It incorporates risk/reward into the equation to some degree and I've always found that helpful.
 
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Russ2dollas said:
I like Contreras and I think he can hit, but I don't see why you'd think he'd hit enough to be a bat somewhere other than catcher.

I agree Waters was rushed. But they may have felt he needed to get to AAA for his approach to be picked on enough for him to learn. Pache's been in the minors for a long time.

Everyone in your system isn't a star or awful. It does seem that way in the last 5 years or so with the braves. I guess Dansby has been our middle guy, but playing like a star now. Getting some lower cost guys who are good players would be a good outcome too.
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Pache is just 22. He's been in the system a long time but that covid developmental year absolutely cost him. Even so, I didn't see the type of faceplant he had coming. He still has enough believers in him to believe he'll be very solid as a major leaguer. I'm one even if it's not with the Braves.
 
50PoundHead said:
Schwellenbach just had arm surgery and he may not debut until 2023 (or at least mid-2022), so I'm a bit puzzled by where he's ranked.

I thought Grissom and Estes might be a little higher given how well they've played in Augusta, but it is Low-A after all.
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Talking Chop had him awfully high too and I don't really get that even if healthy.
 
NYCBrave said:
I understand that you hold Fangraphs as your bible, and it goes without saying they are the industry standard. But their approach to ranking systems is a bit different than many other outlets. Where I've seen the Braves ranked typically post draft is 15-20. Not great by any means, but like I said, solid all things considered. Coming off of 3 straight division titles, international sanctions, and promoting young studs, we could easily be dead last, is all I'm saying.
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I'm not really sure that Eric Longehan or whatever is any more qualified to rate players or does a better job than any other service.

Fangraphs is a good site, though fading I think, but what they really do is present a certain consistent tone and presentation.

Not to any way say the Braves farm is any better than mediocre. I feel better about it than at start of season though.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm not really sure that Eric Longehan or whatever is any more qualified to rate players or does a better job than any other service.

Fangraphs is a good site, though fading I think, but what they really do is present a certain consistent tone and presentation.

Not to any way say the Braves farm is any better than mediocre. I feel better about it than at start of season though.
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Eric is pretty good. But honestly there isn't much of a difference between all the major outlets on prospects.

Fangraphs quality of their article content has gone way downhill. I hardly read anything there anymore. Still the best place to go for most stats with how easy their site is to use.
 
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