Roster moves for tuesday
- Thread starter bravesfanforlife88
- Start date
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Is it? He's still super young.
His offensive upside is almost all potential. He really has a big frame.
His best OPS in the minors is barely over 800. What do you expect it to be in MLB?
OcalaBrave
Spring Training Invitee
Lynn's prospect cost could be higher, but payroll will be more flexible. Braves get a bigger window.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
How? He’s only 21, and you’ve got to remember that he’s not some super prospect like Acuña and Albies. It’s perfectly normal for a player his age to need more development, regardless of potential. Look at Swanson. He should’ve never been brought up when he was, but it took him a couple of years to become a solid bat.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
You would DFA him to get him off the 40. He would get claimed so it would be a dumb move.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Right. It would be very dumb.
You are probably right. Pache has no place with Acuna back, and MAdams has no place with Markakis back.
Jackson may have tweaked his knee or something on that slide into home the other night anyways.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Then you pull him back and trade him. I'm not for just putting him on the street, but DFAs aren't irrevocable waivers. You keep the guy if he clears waivers, but you get the chance to trade him if he's claimed. I guess I've just had it with Toussaint. He looks like all sizzle, no steak.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/a...tArray=&start=2019&end=2020&rtype=mult>1=15
Riley looks better right now because he is in the middle of a local maxima in Z-Contact%...which jigsaws above and below his true talent level. Just like it does for all hitters.
I could buy that recent data suggests he has progressed away from the 60% lows he hit last year, and his new true talent Z-Contact% is closer to his season rate of 78.3%, rather than his career rate of ~75%.
So assuming that is his new true talent level due to real improvements, he is currently ranked #147 out of 174 MLB batters with 80+ PAs at making contact with pitches in the zone.
I could also buy that he has shown progress in the O-Swing% area, and that 35% is his true talent level right now. That ranks him #137 out of those same 174 MLB batters.
So if we believe 85 PAs (a sample size approaching usefulness), and believe Riley can make real improvements (I see no reason we can't believe that for a young guy with a history of making adjustments), Riley has improved in the areas he needed to improve.
If we look at his .240 BABIP, we can realize it is probably 50 points to the unlucky side. Then look at his 2020 xwOBA value of .311 vs his actual wOBA .271, we see even more evidence he has been unlucky so far.
Problem is, a .311 xwOBA is still below MLB average offensively, which isn't ideal from a corner position. Given better luck, Riley's 2020 line should probably look a lot like his luck-inflated 2019 line plus a little bit more OBP...something like .226/.300/.400. That .700 OPS would still be bad for a starting 3b on a contender.
If the Braves can get Seager for something reasonable, I hope they do so. However, they almost certainly need a SP more.
Riley looks better right now because he is in the middle of a local maxima in Z-Contact%...which jigsaws above and below his true talent level. Just like it does for all hitters.
I could buy that recent data suggests he has progressed away from the 60% lows he hit last year, and his new true talent Z-Contact% is closer to his season rate of 78.3%, rather than his career rate of ~75%.
So assuming that is his new true talent level due to real improvements, he is currently ranked #147 out of 174 MLB batters with 80+ PAs at making contact with pitches in the zone.
I could also buy that he has shown progress in the O-Swing% area, and that 35% is his true talent level right now. That ranks him #137 out of those same 174 MLB batters.
So if we believe 85 PAs (a sample size approaching usefulness), and believe Riley can make real improvements (I see no reason we can't believe that for a young guy with a history of making adjustments), Riley has improved in the areas he needed to improve.
If we look at his .240 BABIP, we can realize it is probably 50 points to the unlucky side. Then look at his 2020 xwOBA value of .311 vs his actual wOBA .271, we see even more evidence he has been unlucky so far.
Problem is, a .311 xwOBA is still below MLB average offensively, which isn't ideal from a corner position. Given better luck, Riley's 2020 line should probably look a lot like his luck-inflated 2019 line plus a little bit more OBP...something like .226/.300/.400. That .700 OPS would still be bad for a starting 3b on a contender.
If the Braves can get Seager for something reasonable, I hope they do so. However, they almost certainly need a SP more.
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OcalaBrave
Spring Training Invitee
If Riley is developing better plate discipline, does it stand to reason contact in the zone will follow? Seems like there'd be fewer defensive swings if he has a decent approach.
Folks tend to reason whatever matches their preconceived notion. Someone who wants to think Riley is improving enough to be the answer at 3B will draw correlations between almost anything, and call them reasonable.
What we know for a fact is that Riley was awful last year, and has seemingly improved in the areas he needed to improve. Despite those improvements, he is still a below average offensive performer at a position usually reserved for above average offensive performers.
What we don't know is how much more he will improve, and anyone who says something like, "I see him doing X, Y, Z, so I think he's going to keep getting better", is acting like an expert they most certainly aren't. Ignore them, and mock if desired.
It is certainly a valid stance to take that while Riley is a replacement level player, or a bit better, teams can win despite 1-2 bad players. Since the holes in the rotation are gaping, replacing a 0-1 win player who may still be improving is not a wise place to spend resources. I would agree with that, especially if the cost for someone like Seager is high. However, I have to think there are nearly free upgrades to be had at 3b, and one should be made.
What we know for a fact is that Riley was awful last year, and has seemingly improved in the areas he needed to improve. Despite those improvements, he is still a below average offensive performer at a position usually reserved for above average offensive performers.
What we don't know is how much more he will improve, and anyone who says something like, "I see him doing X, Y, Z, so I think he's going to keep getting better", is acting like an expert they most certainly aren't. Ignore them, and mock if desired.
It is certainly a valid stance to take that while Riley is a replacement level player, or a bit better, teams can win despite 1-2 bad players. Since the holes in the rotation are gaping, replacing a 0-1 win player who may still be improving is not a wise place to spend resources. I would agree with that, especially if the cost for someone like Seager is high. However, I have to think there are nearly free upgrades to be had at 3b, and one should be made.
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Enscheff ...you don’t need to go into detail to prove you do not like Riley. Heck, you are probably right lol (you usually are), but I just think he will turn out to be a very solid player in a few years...just probably not a star.
I would only trade him to to get back a 3rd baseman that can help us on our timeline. That player would need to be well above average to merit that.
I would only trade him to to get back a 3rd baseman that can help us on our timeline. That player would need to be well above average to merit that.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Here's my thing. Despite all of this analysis, he's still very young. We know what he is right now, but is there still a possibility of major improvement? If the answer is No, trade him immediately.
A big part of the reason I'd be for trying to push for a one-stop shop deal with Seattle - and we've got a ton of the types of guys who would be a perfect fit for them. Kids with upside that we simply can't wait for like Riley, Newk, Touki, and Wilson are "close", but just not going to reach whatever ceiling they might actually have if they're forced to keep learning at this level.
Assuming AA can absorb all the money Seager has coming to him for the sake of argument - would the four of them be enough to net Seager, Gonzales, and Walker? If that's close enough that adding a Ynoa/Weigel/De La Cruz (maybe even Davidson) level guy - or that would get them to take Ender's money back - don't you almost HAVE TO pull the trigger?
IIRC most of the talk about Grissom was that he's likely going to have to move off of SS, so he'd have at least 2 more full seasons worth of ABs to get his bat ready if Seager exercises his player option, and you'd still have Shewmake in case he doesn't.
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50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Enscheff has the data so I could be way off base, but my observation of Riley is in accord with what the scouting report on him was as he was coming up through the system and that was "slider speed bat." Like I said earlier in the season, there have been a number of guys who have had slider speed bats (Frank Thomas, Cecil Fielder among them) but pieced together solid careers because of some of their other attributes. Riley has to find a way to accommodate for his shortcomings in other areas. I'm not ready to give up on him because he is, as you way, young and relatively inexperienced. He is far (and I mean far) from a finished product.
It's all going to depend on how much the Braves need out of that position. If the core stays together and healthy and remains productive, the Braves can probably be a little more patient with Riley, especially because they should get better than average production out of the shortstop and catching positions through 2021.
Of course there is. Dude is 23 and has already made improvements exactly how he needed. Those improvements brought him from a sub-replacement level true talent player (< 0 WAR), to a replacement level player (0-1 WAR). Like it or not, reality is that below average offensive production at 3B is not an average player, and the Braves are trying to win now.
For years I've supported the comp for Riley as a RHH Jake Lamb, and I still think it's very reasonable to project him to have a few 2-3 win years at his peak, and then be pretty much done by his late 20s. That's nice, but not something a team should be holding a spot open for that future production. Again, a replacement level player at 3b is probably problem #3 or #4 for this team, so they should ride with Riley if there's no reasonably priced upgrades to be had at 3b.
You just compared Riley to a HoF player, and a guy with 300+ HRs who was widely considered to have the best raw power tool of his generation.
Probably not the best comps to make.