Roster moves for tuesday

[50PoundHead]

You just compared Riley to a HoF player, and a guy with 300+ HRs who was widely considered to have the best raw power tool of his generation.

Probably not the best comps to make.

Not comping. Just saying that there are guys who have made it work. There are lesser lights who have had decent careers after making adjustments. Those two guys just stand out as two who did it the best. I'm certainly not insinuating Riley is a HoFer-in-waiting.

 

[Garmel]

I'm not sure Riley can stick at third even if he keeps hitting. His defense at third has been bad this year and his range will continue to deteriorate as he ages. Good chance he becomes an outfielder in the near future. Maybe I'm jumping the gun with Riley's defense since he's still young but if we have an opportunity to upgrade third then let's go for it.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I think Riley is a good defensive player at third. Guess we will need some data to break that tie.

I think if Riley’s an everyday player he has to mash 1-2 of the 2-5 mistakes he will see a night. Hanging breaking ball. Fastball down the middle etc.

I’ve just seen him miss too many center cut fastballs. Even when dansby is slumping he seems to mash inside fastballs. I just don’t see anything like that from Riley. He still seems like a guess hitter to me.

 

[jpx7]

I'm thinking Toussaint gets the Newcomb/Foltynewicz treatment. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to the alternate site and I wouldn't be shocked if they flat-out DFA'd him. Folks are conjecturing about a deal with Seattle and if that has any legs at all, I'm buying Touki a gift certificate for Pike Place Market.

Then you pull him back and trade him. I'm not for just putting him on the street, but DFAs aren't irrevocable waivers. You keep the guy if he clears waivers, but you get the chance to trade him if he's claimed. I guess I've just had it with Toussaint. He looks like all sizzle, no steak.

That's funny, because Toussaint is one of the guys I'm most confident can be quite good with a few tweaks—in part because of that "sizzle". With a guy like Wright, the stuff—especially the fastball—seems a lot less than advertised ... and he can't get his control/command under wraps. With Toussaint, at least you know the stuff is there, if he can ever harness that control. He also simply hasn't had—unlike a guy like Newcomb—all that many chances to actually start at the major-league level; on top of that, for whatever reason, his numbers as a reliever have much substantially worse than they've been as a starter—which may be purely a product of sample-size, but which is why I was sad to see him come into the game last night, since it was a clear indication he wouldn't be taking his next turn in the rotation.

I'm a lot more down on Wright (stuff), Newcomb (chances), and Foltynewicz (wasting disease) right now than I am on Toussaint.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I wish we could compare Riley's stats to Josh Donalson's (that former MVP) age 23 stats but then JD doesnt have any age 23 stats. Guess we'll have to wait til Riley is 26 or so.

 

[Enscheff]

I wish we could compare Riley's stats to Josh Donalson's (that former MVP) age 23 stats but then JD doesnt have any age 23 stats. Guess we'll have to wait til Riley is 26 or so.

Ok, is Riley a candidate to alter his launch angle?

Or are they completely different cases?

But yeah, let’s compare Riley to an MVP....

This concept that extreme outliers are proof of anything other than they were extreme is a laughable argument for projecting rank and file MLB players. For every 1 JD there are 50 guys who flopped...but let’s pretend Riley is JD.

 

[Slippyjms]

Acuna is back and Anderson is up

Touki and Jackson optioned

 

[Russ2dollas]

Pache still up. Wonder if that means he'll play or if he's just up until Neck clears. Doesn't make a ton of sense because Neck and Adams should be linked, not Pache.

 

[clvclv]

Acuna is back and Anderson is up

Touki and Jackson optioned

Has to mean Ender never sees another AB against a LHP - can platoon he and Pache in CF, Duvall and Markakis in LF. *amn the defense just got a lot better - Ozuna sits while we're not hitting.

 

[MadduxFanII]

Enscheff will finally get Statcast data on Anderson's curveball. Ahab has caught his white whale.

 

[Slippyjms]

Pache still up. Wonder if that means he'll play or if he's just up until Neck clears. Doesn't make a ton of sense because Neck and Adams should be linked, not Pache.

I mean Pache’s only clear path to playing time now is taking over for Ender so unless something has changed their I doubt he’ll be seeing much action. It is interesting that a 40 man move wasn’t made. Does COVID IL take you off the 40 man? Could mean a DFA for Adams when Markakis returns.

 

[Slippyjms]

Also I’m wondering if with Acuna returning tonight if we’ll see Swanson in the 3 hole

 

[Russ2dollas]

I mean Pache’s only clear path to playing time now is taking over for Ender so unless something has changed their I doubt he’ll be seeing much action. It is interesting that a 40 man move wasn’t made. Does COVID IL take you off the 40 man? Could mean a DFA for Adams when Markakis returns.

Agree. I thought he would go down. Why waste service time if you don't play him? You now have two guys who can play CF in case Inciarte gets hurt.

I assume we had room on the 40 man b/c of DL/IL/COVID lists. I thought we'd have to make room too, but I guess not.

Still not sure how much Davidson and Weigel are sucking to not get a chance.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Also I’m wondering if with Acuna returning tonight if we’ll see Swanson in the 3 hole

I'd love to leave Swanson alone and put Acuna in the third hole. Not sure he or Snit will go for it. But the way FF walks, it would be nice to have Acuna behind him.

 

[OcalaBrave]

En you are missing the fun of this game...

23 year old 3b got 443 ABs. Hit .196 with a .373 SLG% and SO in 37% of his ABs. Went on to lead the league in SO 4 times and MLB 3 times.

Austin Riley is Mike Schmidt.

In all seriousness, Riley had a history in the minors of taking time to adjust to the competition and then catching fire and carrying that over to the next level when he got promoted. For instance, as a 19 year old he had a solid season in A. SO a bunch, but had 20 HR. At 20 he starts the next season in A+ and struggles, but then catches fire. He was so hot he gets promoted to AA and puts up a .900 OPS in AA despite having only a .718 at A+ at the time of his promotion. Comes out of the gate raking in AA at age 21 forcing his way to AAA. He continued raking for a month after his promotion, but the league adjusted and he had a sub .700 OPS in June and July. He adjusted with a .857 OPS in August. In 2019, he destroys AAA out of the gate and stay red hot upon being promoted, but MLB pitching adjusts and he is basically unplayable after mid June, but when he goes back to AAA he mashes. He's back in Atlanta to start this season and his July is unplayable, but his August shows significant improvement. The splits also show overall he has an .827 OPS in 2020 at home and a .484 on the road. None of this data shows us what he will develop into, but the trend lines indicate he is getting better.

By my count there are currently 9 MLB 3b with an OPS above .800 and only 7 of those get there with a SLG% above .500. Based upon Riley's home splits this season at age 23, he could add his name to that list.

 

[Slippyjms]

I'd love to leave Swanson alone and put Acuna in the third hole. Not sure he or Snit will go for it. But the way FF walks, it would be nice to have Acuna behind him.

The way Swanson is going right now I’d definitely like to keep him in the top 3 in the order but I also would rather give more PAs to Acuna and Freeman instead of Swanson. Also if someone is gonna come up with nobody on and 2 out I’d rather that be Swanson too.

That all being said with this being Snit I feel like we should all expect

Acuna RF
Swanson SS
Freeman 1B
Ozuna DH
d’Arnaud C
Duvall LF
Riley 3B
Camargo 2B
Inciarte CF

 

[DirkPiggler]

The way Swanson is going right now I’d definitely like to keep him in the top 3 in the order but I also would rather give more PAs to Acuna and Freeman instead of Swanson. Also if someone is gonna come up with nobody on and 2 out I’d rather that be Swanson too.

That all being said with this being Snit I feel like we should all expect

Acuna RF
Swanson SS
Freeman 1B
Ozuna DH
d’Arnaud C
Duvall LF
Riley 3B
Camargo 2B
Inciarte CF

Camargo needs some time off. He looks completely lost right now. Would prefer to see Hech or even Culberson get the start at 2B.

 

[Slippyjms]

Camargo needs some time off. He looks completely lost right now. Would prefer to see Hech or even Culberson get the start at 2B.

I wouldn’t be against giving Culberson a start. I think he’s gonna be DFA’d soon though. I mean as bad as Adams has been he’s at least getting ABs. Culberson can’t even get in the game to prove himself.

 

[NYCBrave]

I thought I had read Markakis would be back today also, but it hasn't been officially announced. Seems clear that is who Pache will go back down for.

 

[Enscheff]

En you are missing the fun of this game...

23 year old 3b got 443 ABs. Hit .196 with a .373 SLG% and SO in 37% of his ABs. Went on to lead the league in SO 4 times and MLB 3 times.

Austin Riley is Mike Schmidt.

In all seriousness, Riley had a history in the minors of taking time to adjust to the competition and then catching fire and carrying that over to the next level when he got promoted. For instance, as a 19 year old he had a solid season in A. SO a bunch, but had 20 HR. At 20 he starts the next season in A+ and struggles, but then catches fire. He was so hot he gets promoted to AA and puts up a .900 OPS in AA despite having only a .718 at A+ at the time of his promotion. Comes out of the gate raking in AA at age 21 forcing his way to AAA. He continued raking for a month after his promotion, but the league adjusted and he had a sub .700 OPS in June and July. He adjusted with a .857 OPS in August. In 2019, he destroys AAA out of the gate and stay red hot upon being promoted, but MLB pitching adjusts and he is basically unplayable after mid June, but when he goes back to AAA he mashes. He's back in Atlanta to start this season and his July is unplayable, but his August shows significant improvement. The splits also show overall he has an .827 OPS in 2020 at home and a .484 on the road. None of this data shows us what he will develop into, but the trend lines indicate he is getting better.

By my count there are currently 9 MLB 3b with an OPS above .800 and only 7 of those get there with a SLG% above .500. Based upon Riley's home splits this season at age 23, he could add his name to that list.

Yes, thank you, I am well aware of Riley's career arc to date. I too am an avid Braves fan.

I have no idea what that analysis proves...as if his age 23 home splits covering a handful of PAs are predictive of anything? Did I miss the sarcasm?

I'm confident I've pinpointed Riley's issue being his inability to make contact (low Z-Contact% is a fact), which is probably at least partially tied to his inability to make a decision on pitches quickly enough for his long swing (confused with "slider speed bat") to make consistent contact. This lack of timely decision making is also manifesting itself in a high O-Swing% because he doesn't know when not to swing. Missing pitches in the zone and swinging at pitches out of the zone is deadly for an MLB hitter...like literally the worst possible scenario.

Right now Riley is a pure guess hitter, because he has to guess to make contact. Right now, he is not a good hitter due to that fact. I have been the low man on Riley for a long time, and wouldn't hesitate to trade him for help elsewhere.

Can he get better reaction times? Can he shorten the swing? Can he get better at guessing? Can he do more damage when he does guess correctly? All of those are possible avenues for improvement for Riley.

How many hitters dramatically improve their Z-Contact% and O-Swing% from MLB-worst to playable in their mid-20s? I haven't found a single example of such a player.