Roy Clark May Be Returning To The Braves

Zito doesn't quite have all the assessments right.

Francoeur wasn't a "bust" in the Kommisk-like sense. He had two seasons of 100-plus RBIs and never missed a game dogging it was any kind of injury and threw out more than 10 baserunners every season and won a Gold Glove. He leveled off so quickly that he became, in some part, a victim of others' expectations, but he was traded at the right time.

James was terrific for two years. Anyone who has an 11-4 season is not a bust.

Boyer gave them a superb 2005 before he blew out his arm, and even worked in 76 games after the fact, albeit somewhat poorly.

Jones was traded, part of the Tex deal.

Otherwise, you were dead on.
 
zitothebrave said:
I have to disagree with your statements. How can you say Wren was a problem, but then say he inherited minor. If you want to say Wren's scouting department is a problem that's fine, but he either deserves no direct blame for it or some credit for Minor.

Our drafts from 2010-2014 have already produced 3 very good major league players. Gattis, Simmons, and Wood. We have 2 great pitchign prospects in the upper minors now with Hursh and Sims and would have a third if not for TINSTAPP (aka Graham's shoulder) We have some promising young bats in the lower minors.

I challenge the high level impact comment though. Look at our top 10 prospects in 2005 and 2006, which were are golden years for prospects

2005

Francoeur - Bust

Marte - Bust

McCann - Star

Davies - Bust

Lerew - Bust

Jake Stevens - DOn't think he made the majors.

Luis Hernandez - Bust

Kelly Johnson - Good

Salty - Good

Blaine BOyer - Bust

2006 (only gonna talk about new ones)

Andrus - probably just below star

Feliz - Good

Escobar - Good

Devine - Flamed out

Chuck James - Flamed out

Brandon Jones - Did he make it after he busted for us?

Eric Campbell - Bust

Beau Jones - Bust

The guys you listed as high level impact prospects were drafted from an 8 year sample with a minimum 7 year evaluation time. You're criticizing a 5 year sample with a maximum 4 year evaluation time. You're comparing apples to oranges. I'm not saying that Wren and co was amazing and a marvel. But I think they get too much ****. They completed their first task in 2 years, restock the upper minors after they were ravaged by JS and co since the ones up there doing well were on their way to graduation. They didn't get a chance to go after part 2.

The struggle the Braves have seemingly had in the Wren era they didn't in the JS era is in international signings, and I think a lot of that had to do with things outside Wren's control. Be it increase competition internationally, or new tighter rules.
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Couldn't agree more.

That said, I'm really happy with what they're doing with their scouting department now.
 
rico43 said:
Zito doesn't quite have all the assessments right.

Francoeur wasn't a "bust" in the Kommisk-like sense. He had two seasons of 100-plus RBIs and never missed a game dogging it was any kind of injury and threw out more than 10 baserunners every season and won a Gold Glove. He leveled off so quickly that he became, in some part, a victim of others' expectations, but he was traded at the right time.

James was terrific for two years. Anyone who has an 11-4 season is not a bust.

Boyer gave them a superb 2005 before he blew out his arm, and even worked in 76 games after the fact, albeit somewhat poorly.

Jones was traded, part of the Tex deal.

Otherwise, you were dead on.
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Francoeur wasn't a particularly good baseball player and was overrated, but--at least to me--it's hard to label a guy who got almost 5,000 major league plate appearances (over 2,000 of them with teams other than the Braves) a "bust."

Pitchers who developed arm problems heavily populate those prospect lists, which is why you always need a ton of pitching prospects.

I think the bottom line in the indictment against Wren/Demacio is that there currently are less than five players in the system with comparable ceilings to the players on those lists. And prospect lists are based on ceilings, not floors.

KB21 gets it right in his post.
 
rico43 said:
Zito doesn't quite have all the assessments right.

Francoeur wasn't a "bust" in the Kommisk-like sense. He had two seasons of 100-plus RBIs and never missed a game dogging it was any kind of injury and threw out more than 10 baserunners every season and won a Gold Glove. He leveled off so quickly that he became, in some part, a victim of others' expectations, but he was traded at the right time.

James was terrific for two years. Anyone who has an 11-4 season is not a bust.

Boyer gave them a superb 2005 before he blew out his arm, and even worked in 76 games after the fact, albeit somewhat poorly.

Jones was traded, part of the Tex deal.

Otherwise, you were dead on.
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Francoeur may not have been a bust in the traditional sense, but to me someone who's that highly regarded who produced 1 and a half worthwhile seasons for us and was traded for Ryan Church, is a bust. Even with Marte busting we still got Renteria, who got us Jurrjens.

James was terrific for one season, and even that season was smoke and mirrors (his FIP well cleared 5) and I think I said he flamed out cause of his shoulder injury.

Boyer was a bust to me. He was a well regarded starting pitcher who was moved to middle relief, that's a bust.

Jones was a throw in to the Tex deal, he wasn't anything special.

Don't get me wrong, we had good minor leagues back then and the artificial inflation we had let us make some killer deals. Which really makes Wren even more impressive as he has made killer deals without inflated value. Remember when we traded Capellan for an accomplished closer in Kolb. Granted, Kolb sucked massively for us, but we still got an accomplished closer for a guy who never really could hack it in the bigs cause of our rep.
 
50PoundHead said:
Francoeur wasn't a particularly good baseball player and was overrated, but--at least to me--it's hard to label a guy who got almost 5,000 major league plate appearances (over 2,000 of them with teams other than the Braves) a "bust."

Pitchers who developed arm problems heavily populate those prospect lists, which is why you always need a ton of pitching prospects.

I think the bottom line in the indictment against Wren/Demacio is that there currently are less than five players in the system with comparable ceilings to the players on those lists. And prospect lists are based on ceilings, not floors.

KB21 gets it right in his post.
Click to expand...

Looking at our current top 10 (courtesy of our own Rico) we have 6 guys with a very intriguing ceiling. Peraza, SIms, Hursh, Reyes, Davidson, and Albies. What we've missed out on lately is the top of the system talent. Our best prospects a sof late have been B+ type of players not A type. Sims and Peraza look to potentially change that. The system was hurt because we didn't draft especially well from 05-08 aside from a few guys who became offense and our minors were understocked with major league ready talent. Wren and co addressed that by taking guys who could be in the upper minors very fast and waiting for a call, guys like La Stella, Gosselin, Cunningham, Terds, Kubitza, Graham, Martin, etc. We have much better depth than we did 5 or 6 years ago.
 
zitothebrave said:
Francoeur may not have been a bust in the traditional sense, but to me someone who's that highly regarded who produced 1 and a half worthwhile seasons for us and was traded for Ryan Church, is a bust. Even with Marte busting we still got Renteria, who got us Jurrjens.
.
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In fairness by the time we traded Francouer his value had plummeted majorly.

If we had traded Francoeur after the 2006 campaign we might've gotten a fool's ransom for him.
 
zitothebrave said:
I have to disagree with your statements. How can you say Wren was a problem, but then say he inherited minor. If you want to say Wren's scouting department is a problem that's fine, but he either deserves no direct blame for it or some credit for Minor.

Our drafts from 2010-2014 have already produced 3 very good major league players. Gattis, Simmons, and Wood. We have 2 great pitchign prospects in the upper minors now with Hursh and Sims and would have a third if not for TINSTAPP (aka Graham's shoulder) We have some promising young bats in the lower minors.

I challenge the high level impact comment though. Look at our top 10 prospects in 2005 and 2006, which were are golden years for prospects

2005

Francoeur - Bust

Marte - Bust

McCann - Star

Davies - Bust

Lerew - Bust

Jake Stevens - DOn't think he made the majors.

Luis Hernandez - Bust

Kelly Johnson - Good

Salty - Good

Blaine BOyer - Bust

2006 (only gonna talk about new ones)

Andrus - probably just below star

Feliz - Good

Escobar - Good

Devine - Flamed out

Chuck James - Flamed out

Brandon Jones - Did he make it after he busted for us?

Eric Campbell - Bust

Beau Jones - Bust

The guys you listed as high level impact prospects were drafted from an 8 year sample with a minimum 7 year evaluation time. You're criticizing a 5 year sample with a maximum 4 year evaluation time. You're comparing apples to oranges. I'm not saying that Wren and co was amazing and a marvel. But I think they get too much ****. They completed their first task in 2 years, restock the upper minors after they were ravaged by JS and co since the ones up there doing well were on their way to graduation. They didn't get a chance to go after part 2.

The struggle the Braves have seemingly had in the Wren era they didn't in the JS era is in international signings, and I think a lot of that had to do with things outside Wren's control. Be it increase competition internationally, or new tighter rules.
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Well, for one, I didn't say he inherited Minor. I said Kimbrel and Minor were drafted when Roy Clark was the scouting director, and both prospects were scouted and signed by new scouting director Brian Bridges. When the Frank Wren got the job, he inherited a farm system that was rated as the 8th best in baseball. It is now in the 20s.

The precipitous decline is directly attributable to the change in philosophy the Braves have had when it comes to drafting. Too many limited college players and bull pen arms, not enough high upside high school players and in particular the lack of high level high school starting arms.
 
zitothebrave said:
Looking at our current top 10 (courtesy of our own Rico) we have 6 guys with a very intriguing ceiling. Peraza, SIms, Hursh, Reyes, Davidson, and Albies. What we've missed out on lately is the top of the system talent. Our best prospects a sof late have been B+ type of players not A type. Sims and Peraza look to potentially change that. The system was hurt because we didn't draft especially well from 05-08 aside from a few guys who became offense and our minors were understocked with major league ready talent. Wren and co addressed that by taking guys who could be in the upper minors very fast and waiting for a call, guys like La Stella, Gosselin, Cunningham, Terds, Kubitza, Graham, Martin, etc. We have much better depth than we did 5 or 6 years ago.
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Answer in two parts:

(1) I will be surprised if any of those guys get 2,000 PAs in the big leagues.

(2) And no we really don't. Outside of La Stella (and maybe Kubitza), the role of any of the offensive players you mention could easily be assumed by signing a minor league free agent. Graham has been hurt and we'll see if he reaches the bigs. Another small RH power pitcher, a pattern where DeMacio has hit gold (Kimbrel) and has had mixed results with otherwise. Wren traded a ton of minor league depth--rightly--for Bourn, Vazquez, and others, so the depth argument doesn't really wash. He traded depth and replaced it with depth--none of it of very high quality.

One of the big pro-Wren arguments is that he graduated a ton of guys he drafted. If that's the case, you really have to look at the guys on the 2005 and 2006 lists and realize that only 3 of them did not play in the big leagues.

And it really still boils down to this. You don't draft depth. You draft potential top end guys early and hope you develop them. You can get your depth all over the place. But just because you graduate a bunch of guys doesn't mean you should lower your sights.
 
How can you say that 50?

I would be shotcked if they get 2000 PA, but you need to have your depth guys as well as your starters.
 
How can I say what? It was pretty clear what I said and it was a follow up from a post I wrote a week or so ago. Clark built on helluva minor league system. We no longer have a helluva good system.
 
You think our 2012 farm system (2 years after clark left which still would have been populated by his HS and internationals) was that amazing?

2012 BA Top 10.

Julio - Stud
Viz - Wren trade
Delgado - Good
Simmons - Wren pick
Gilmartin - Wren pick
Salcedo - still hasn't made the bigs
Pastornicky - Wren trade IIRC
Spruill - Good
Bethancourt - just graduated as a prospect
Drury - I think was a wren pick.

So 2 and a half years after Clark's last draft where his HS kids should have eben in the upper minors (2008 and 2009 drafts) we see 3 Wren picks, a Wren trade, and maybe a Wren trade? I forget with Pastornicky not really gonna look it up. I think Clark gets brought to a higher platform because of his highs did really well in guys like Mac, Freddie, Julio, etc.
 
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