Run Differential

striker42

Well-known member
The Braves are now +81 in run differential, 5tg best in baseball and second in the NL. Last year we were -89.

Nats are +33, 10th best in baseball.

Phils are just +5, 16th in baseball.

The Phils are going to fade.
 
Yeah I'm not nearly as scared of Philly as I am of the Nats. If we can somehow win our next two games, I think I would prefer Philly to beat Washington twice to give us a 7 game lead over them and only a 3 game lead over Philly. Washington is going to make a push at some point, and a 7 game cushion against them is gonna be awfully luxurious post trade deadline.
 
Phills getting Machado would make them a good bit scarier. But he's about the only addition they could realistically make that should drastically affect their performance. The Phills getting someone like Moose or Beltre probably won't move the needle much for them.
 
Yeah i'm much more worried about Washington.

I think once they get Strasburg and others back, they'll get on a run. I think Philly is good but i'm not sure they'll keep this up all year but they also did much better in their June stretch than i thought they would so who knows.

I think they need a bat, but i'm not sure they have the resources for a Machado trade. I could see Beltre or Moose more likely since he wont cost as much.
 
The Nats’ bats have underperformed for the most part. If he can even remotely get it together, they’ll go on a big-time tear. The pitching is there, yes, even the bullpen.
 
I kind of like run diff as a relative strength stat, and yes, the Phillies should fade. But don't forget what they've done already is in the bank.
 
I kind of like run diff as a relative strength stat, and yes, the Phillies should fade. But don't forget what they've done already is in the bank.

Pretty much. Being +5 right now doesn't mean they will be the rest of the way. That said if they are +5 the rest of the way I seriously doubt they will be in contention.
 
The Braves are now +81 in run differential, 5tg best in baseball and second in the NL. Last year we were -89.

Nats are +33, 10th best in baseball.

Phils are just +5, 16th in baseball.

The Phils are going to fade.

Every predictive measure of team strength suggests the Braves are legit...now.

We are literally watching another case of a team being competitive in year 4. It would have been foolish to plan around this happening 4-5 months ago, but reality is that it is happening and plans need to be adjusted.

AA needs to make measured improvements at the deadline. The areas with room to improve are obvious, and the affordable solutions are plentiful.
 
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What the Phillies do at the deadline will probably effect a lot. But so will what we do, etc. Braves are easily the best team in the NL so far and should have at least twice the lead they have now. Yes, they have been that clutch this year. Seriously, I cannot be more impressed on how clutch they are. Even Swanson who hasn't hit as well as we'd like, he has still had some big hits when you need them. Culberson has been huge in the clutch department, he is the new Gattis or Conrad before him as far as that goes.
 
Every predictive measure of team strength suggests the Braves are legit...now.

We are literally watching another case of a team being competitive in year 4. It would have been foolish to plan around this happening 4-5 months ago, but reality is that it is happening and plans need to be adjusted.

AA needs to make measured improvements at the deadline. The areas with room to improve are obvious, and the affordable solutions are plentiful.

Its pretty crazy how fortunate we are in that regard. The two things we could use to improve the team are two things that seem to be in abundance cheaply.
 
Its pretty crazy how fortunate we are in that regard. The two things we could use to improve the team are two things that seem to be in abundance cheaply.

Absolutely.

Left handed situational relievers: Claudio, Avilan, Loup, Blevins, Diekman

Left side of the infield: Beltre, Donaldson, Solarte, Moose, Cabrera, Frazier, Flores, Dietrich

We won't have to break the bank to fill those needs. And we could probably get a high leverage reliever too if Viz is not healthy at the deadline.
 
Absolutely.

Left handed situational relievers: Claudio, Avilan, Loup, Blevins, Diekman

Left side of the infield: Beltre, Donaldson, Solarte, Moose, Cabrera, Frazier, Flores, Dietrich

We won't have to break the bank to fill those needs. And we could probably get a high leverage reliever too if Viz is not healthy at the deadline.

Now the question is how long do we wait? Most of the teams who have those players above are well out of it already.
 
Absolutely.

Left handed situational relievers: Claudio, Avilan, Loup, Blevins, Diekman

Left side of the infield: Beltre, Donaldson, Solarte, Moose, Cabrera, Frazier, Flores, Dietrich

We won't have to break the bank to fill those needs. And we could probably get a high leverage reliever too if Viz is not healthy at the deadline.

I want no part in Blevins but I agree with you on the others. Claudio and Beltre in one deal sounds best to me. I am not interested in Frazier at all, we are better off with Camargo at third. Even with Beltre I give him plenty of rest where he can help us in the playoffs. This way Camargo gets plenty of AB's playing some third and short, keep both fresh.

I wouldn't mind bringing back Avilan either if the price is right.
 
Now the question is how long do we wait? Most of the teams who have those players above are well out of it already.

Yeah. That's an interesting question. I think we are lucky in the sense it is a bit of a buyers market for what we are shopping for. We can afford to be patient and picky. At the same time, I think it has cost us here and there not having a situational lefty.

With respect to left side of the infield, I think there are some questions we need to answer so we can rank the players available:
1) Do we want a rental or someone we can keep for next year (my preference is the latter even though we will have to pay more in the way of prospects)
2) How important is positional versatility? I think it should get a fair amount of weight given how weak the rest of our bench is. Makes me favor guys like Cabrera, Dietrich, Flores and Solarte. The last 3 also are under team control beyond this year.
3) Do we want a lefty or righty hitter? I don't have a strong view here. I think Beltre fits in well with our lineup but I'm not sure I want someone like him who would displace Camargo. Cabrera and Solarte are switch hitters without strong splits. That's in their favor imo.
4) What is the cost? Is it likely to go down as we approach the deadline. Injuries can affect the market. For example, the Angels might be looking for a rental with Cozart out for the season.
 
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I want no part in Blevins but I agree with you on the others. Claudio and Beltre in one deal sounds best to me. I am not interested in Frazier at all, we are better off with Camargo at third. Even with Beltre I give him plenty of rest where he can help us in the playoffs. This way Camargo gets plenty of AB's playing some third and short, keep both fresh.

I wouldn't mind bringing back Avilan either if the price is right.

Avilan and Claudio are my first two choices for situational lefty in part because they will be under team control beyond 2018.
 
As far as the IFer is concerned, I want him to hit RHers well. The most cost effective option is to platoon Camargo with someone like Cabrera or Solarte. I couldn’t care less about controlling that player past this season.

Same thing with the LH BP arm. I don’t care about controlling a non-elite BP arm past this season, and would not be in favor of paying extra for that control.
 
I am wondering why anyone still wants Frazier, he had a good day today but that only got his OPS back to .705 and that is worse than Swanson. No way I trade and pay for that with our in-house options. Cabrera and Solarte make sense though, if the price is right. As does Claudio and Avilan. Plus I'd like Beltre if not too costly and he is willing to come here.
 
I am wondering why anyone still wants Frazier, he had a good day today but that only got his OPS back to .705 and that is worse than Swanson. No way I trade and pay for that with our in-house options. Cabrera and Solarte make sense though, if the price is right. As does Claudio and Avilan. Plus I'd like Beltre if not too costly and he is willing to come here.

you named the four who I think are the best fit--Solarte and Cabrera for the infield and Claudo and Avilan for the pen.
 
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