Scout.com Top 100 prospects list

[UNCBlue012]

Lol, they had their run??? I would gladly swap the last 10 years we've had, for the last 10 years the Royals have had. Not to mention, they're stacked for a good while on talent and are spending like 30+ more million than we are.

Not sure what is behind your irrational hate of Moore and the Royals is, but they've done a good job of rebuilding a franchise that was going nowhere with no talent before Moore took over.

Hell, I'd take more over Fredi three times a day and 50 times over that.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Right. Tell that to all those other teams who consistently pick in the first 10 of drafts regularly. It's simply not as easy as many people like to point out.

Between 1987 and 2008, only 39.1% of players drafted in the First Round had "productive careers" at the MLB level (meaning they contributed for at least 3 seasons). Just to make the numbers easy to round, 30 1st Round picks x 21 years = 630 players. 246 of the players taken in the First Round over that period (roughly 12 per season) had 3 year MLB careers - regardless of where they were picked. If you look at the success rates of the few teams that produced those kinds of players while consistently drafting late in those rounds and finding players like that in the later rounds (the Braves and Cardinals as two examples), there are FAR MORE "misses" than most people think.

(LINK - http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/one-in-six-draft-picks-will-click/)

That information looks round by round as a whole. The point I was making is that the Royals picked at the TOP of each round. Now, I don't know what the rates are on average for picks taken 1 through 5 in the first round as opposed to 1 through 30 of the first round, but would bet that it is significantly different. Are there busts on players taken 1-5? Sure, say hello to Mike Kelly. But the bust rate is likely much lower. And, since the Royals picked at the top of the first round, they most often picked at the top of the second round which would lead me to believe that the success rate for that area of pick in the second round is much closer to the success rate experienced by teams picking in the bottom of the first round or in the supplemental rounds.

And, since KC is a small market, they are open to the possibility of competitive balance picks.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Lol, they had their run??? I would gladly swap the last 10 years we've had, for the last 10 years the Royals have had. Not to mention, they're stacked for a good while on talent and are spending like 30+ more million than we are.

Not sure what is behind your irrational hate of Moore and the Royals is, but they've done a good job of rebuilding a franchise that was going nowhere with no talent before Moore took over.

I don't hate Moore or KC. They won a WS so obviously they did a good job. The point is that when given the opportunity to pick an impact player in the draft when they had one of the top picks, they didn't miss. They at least got a contributor if not a superstar. But now those picks are either getting old (Gordon), injured or expensive. Now they will have to rely on their ability to keep it going by supplementing the ML team from a pool of talent drawn not from the top five of the draft every year but from the bottom third in each round. And looking at their picks the last few years, their international success and failures, and their overall ability to sustain a payroll, I think their window is closing fast.

 

[Carp]

I don't hate Moore or KC. They won a WS so obviously they did a good job. The point is that when given the opportunity to pick an impact player in the draft when they had one of the top picks, they didn't miss. They at least got a contributor if not a superstar. But now those picks are either getting old (Gordon), injured or expensive. Now they will have to rely on their ability to keep it going by supplementing the ML team from a pool of talent drawn not from the top five of the draft every year but from the bottom third in each round. And looking at their picks the last few years, their international success and failures, and their overall ability to sustain a payroll, I think their window is closing fast.

Sorry, thought I was responding to Cajun there. He normally is the anti-Dayton Moore poster on here.

Still, I don't agree with the notion that their window is closing fast. They've rebuilt the franchise from the ground up, and they've got a pretty steady group of talent churning out on a yearly basis. I really admire their strategy on pitching. For whatever reason, they don't develop pitching well. So they've done a great job at identifying durable starters on the FA market at reasonable contracts. And of course, they've made a couple of shrewd trades for Shields and Cueto. But they have done a good job at bringing in durable/quality starters

 

[clvclv]

That information looks round by round as a whole. The point I was making is that the Royals picked at the TOP of each round. Now, I don't know what the rates are on average for picks taken 1 through 5 in the first round as opposed to 1 through 30 of the first round, but would bet that it is significantly different. Are there busts on players taken 1-5? Sure, say hello to Mike Kelly. But the bust rate is likely much lower. And, since the Royals picked at the top of the first round, they most often picked at the top of the second round which would lead me to believe that the success rate for that area of pick in the second round is much closer to the success rate experienced by teams picking in the bottom of the first round or in the supplemental rounds.

And, since KC is a small market, they are open to the possibility of competitive balance picks.

2006 Draft:
1.) Hochevar
2.) Greg Reynolds (COL)
3.) Longoria
4.) Brad Lincoln (PIT)
5.) Brandon Morrow (SEA)
6.) Andrew Miller (DET)
7.) Kershaw
8.) Robert Stubbs (CIN)
9.) William Rowell (BAL)
10.) Lincecum

2007
1.) David Price
2.) Moustakas
3.) Josh Vitters (CHC)
4.) Daniel Moskos (PIT)
5.) Matt Wieters (BAL)
6.) Ross Detweiler (WAS)
7.) Matt LaPorta (MIL)
8.) Casey Weathers (COL)
9.) Jarrod Parker (ARI)
10.) Madison Bumgarner (SFG)

Royals took Duffy in the Third Round and Holland in the Tenth Round.

2008
1.) Tim Beckham (TBR)
2.) Pedro Alvarez (PIT)
3.) Hosmer
4.) Brian Matusz (BAL)
5.) Buster Posey (SFG)
6.) Kyle Skipworth (FLA/MIA)
7.) Yonder Alonso (CIN)
8.) Gordon Beckham (CHW)
9.) Aaron Crow (WAS - did not sign)
10.) Jason Castro (HOU)

2009
1.) Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
2.) Dustin Ackley (SEA)
3.) Donovan Tate (SDP)
4.) Tony Sanchez (PIT)
5.) Matthew Hobgood (BAL)
6.) Zack Wheeler (SFG)
7.) Mike Minor
8.) Mike Leake (CIN)
9.) Jacob Turner (DET)
10.) Drew Storen (WAS)

Royals took Crow at #12

2010
1.) Bryce Harper (WAS)
2.) Jameson Taillon (PIT)
3.) Manny Machado (BAL)
4.) Christian Colon
5.) Drew Pomeranz (CLE)
6.) Barrett Loux (ARI)
7.) Matt Harvey (NYM)
8.) Delino DeShields (HOU)
9.) Karsten Whitson (SDP - did not sign)
10.) Michael Choice (OAK)

2011
1.) Gerritt Cole (PIT)
2.) Danny Hultzen (SEA)
3.) Trevor Bauer (ARI)
4.) Dylan Bundy (BAL)
5.) Starling
6.) Anthony Rendon (WAS)
7.) Archie Bradley (ARI)
8.) Francisco Lindor (CLE)
9.) Javier Baez (CHC)
10.) Cory Spangenberg (SDP)

2012
1.) Carlos Correa (HOU)
2.) Byron Buxton (MIN)
3.) Mike Zunino (SEA)
4.) Kevin Gausman (BAL)
5.) Zimmer
6.) Albert Almora (CHC)
7.) Max Fried (SDP)
8.) Mark Appel (PIT - did not sign)
9.) Andrew Heaney (FLA/MIA)
10.) David Dahl (COL)

2013
1.) Appel (HOU)
2.) Kris Bryant (CHC)
3.) Jonathon Gray (COL)
4.) Kohl Stewart (MIN)
5.) Clint Frazier (CLE)
6.) Collin Moran (FLA/MIA)
7.) Trey Ball (BOS)
8.) Dozier
9.) Austin Meadows (PIT)
10.) Phil Bickford (TOR - did not sign)

Royals took Manaea in the Supplemental Round.

2014
1.) Brady Aiken (HOU - did not sign)
2.) Tyler Kolek (FLA/MIA)
3.) Carlos Rodon (CHW)
4.) Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
5.) Nick Gordon (MIN)
6.) Alex Jackson (SEA)
7.) Aaron Nola (PHI)
8.) Kyle Freeland (COL)
9.) Jeff Hoffman (TOR)
10.) Michael Conforto (NYM)

Royals took Finnegan at #17.

2015
1.) Dansby Swanson (ARI)
2.) Alex Bregman (HOU)
3.) Brendan Rodgers (COL)
4.) Dillon Tate (TEX)
5.) Kyle Tucker (HOU)
6.) Tyler Jay (MIN)
7.) Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
8.) Carson Fulmer (CHW)
9.) Ian Happ (CHC)
10.) Cornelius Randolph (PHI)

Royals took Ashe Russell at #21.

So again I ask - who has been more successful at the top of the draft in the last 10 years??? DMGM has delivered more "productive players" while having fewer flops than anyone over that period.

 

[smootness]

2006 Draft:
1.) Hochevar
2.) Greg Reynolds (COL)
3.) Longoria
4.) Brad Lincoln (PIT)
5.) Brandon Morrow (SEA)
6.) Andrew Miller (DET)
7.) Kershaw
8.) Robert Stubbs (CIN)
9.) William Rowell (BAL)
10.) Lincecum

2007
1.) David Price
2.) Moustakas
3.) Josh Vitters (CHC)
4.) Daniel Moskos (PIT)
5.) Matt Wieters (BAL)
6.) Ross Detweiler (WAS)
7.) Matt LaPorta (MIL)
8.) Casey Weathers (COL)
9.) Jarrod Parker (ARI)
10.) Madison Bumgarner (SFG)

Royals took Duffy in the Third Round and Holland in the Tenth Round.

2008
1.) Tim Beckham (TBR)
2.) Pedro Alvarez (PIT)
3.) Hosmer
4.) Brian Matusz (BAL)
5.) Buster Posey (SFG)
6.) Kyle Skipworth (FLA/MIA)
7.) Yonder Alonso (CIN)
8.) Gordon Beckham (CHW)
9.) Aaron Crow (WAS - did not sign)
10.) Jason Castro (HOU)

2009
1.) Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
2.) Dustin Ackley (SEA)
3.) Donovan Tate (SDP)
4.) Tony Sanchez (PIT)
5.) Matthew Hobgood (BAL)
6.) Zack Wheeler (SFG)
7.) Mike Minor
8.) Mike Leake (CIN)
9.) Jacob Turner (DET)
10.) Drew Storen (WAS)

Royals took Crow at #12

2010
1.) Bryce Harper (WAS)
2.) Jameson Taillon (PIT)
3.) Manny Machado (BAL)
4.) Christian Colon
5.) Drew Pomeranz (CLE)
6.) Barrett Loux (ARI)
7.) Matt Harvey (NYM)
8.) Delino DeShields (HOU)
9.) Karsten Whitson (SDP - did not sign)
10.) Michael Choice (OAK)

2011
1.) Gerritt Cole (PIT)
2.) Danny Hultzen (SEA)
3.) Trevor Bauer (ARI)
4.) Dylan Bundy (BAL)
5.) Starling
6.) Anthony Rendon (WAS)
7.) Archie Bradley (ARI)
8.) Francisco Lindor (CLE)
9.) Javier Baez (CHC)
10.) Cory Spangenberg (SDP)

2012
1.) Carlos Correa (HOU)
2.) Byron Buxton (MIN)
3.) Mike Zunino (SEA)
4.) Kevin Gausman (BAL)
5.) Zimmer
6.) Albert Almora (CHC)
7.) Max Fried (SDP)
8.) Mark Appel (PIT - did not sign)
9.) Andrew Heaney (FLA/MIA)
10.) David Dahl (COL)

2013
1.) Appel (HOU)
2.) Kris Bryant (CHC)
3.) Jonathon Gray (COL)
4.) Kohl Stewart (MIN)
5.) Clint Frazier (CLE)
6.) Collin Moran (FLA/MIA)
7.) Trey Ball (BOS)
8.) Dozier
9.) Austin Meadows (PIT)
10.) Phil Bickford (TOR - did not sign)

Royals took Manaea in the Supplemental Round.

2014
1.) Brady Aiken (HOU - did not sign)
2.) Tyler Kolek (FLA/MIA)
3.) Carlos Rodon (CHW)
4.) Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
5.) Nick Gordon (MIN)
6.) Alex Jackson (SEA)
7.) Aaron Nola (PHI)
8.) Kyle Freeland (COL)
9.) Jeff Hoffman (TOR)
10.) Michael Conforto (NYM)

Royals took Finnegan at #17.

2015
1.) Dansby Swanson (ARI)
2.) Alex Bregman (HOU)
3.) Brendan Rodgers (COL)
4.) Dillon Tate (TEX)
5.) Kyle Tucker (HOU)
6.) Tyler Jay (MIN)
7.) Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
8.) Carson Fulmer (CHW)
9.) Ian Happ (CHC)
10.) Cornelius Randolph (PHI)

Royals took Ashe Russell at #21.

So again I ask - who has been more successful at the top of the draft in the last 10 years??? DMGM has delivered more "productive players" while having fewer flops than anyone over that period.

The Cubs and Nats blow them away with fewer picks.

And who else has picked at the top as often as the Royals did? They did a good job overall and a very good job of late, but it took a very long time to get that train rolling.

 

[chop2chip]

So again I ask - who has been more successful at the top of the draft in the last 10 years??? DMGM has delivered more "productive players" while having fewer flops than anyone over that period.

Honestly, that crop of players is pretty disappointing relative to where they were drafted, with the exception of Hosmer and Moose.

 

[Carp]

The Cubs and Nats blow them away with fewer picks.

And who else has picked at the top as often as the Royals did? They did a good job overall and a very good job of late, but it took a very long time to get that train rolling.

But with fewer dollars to spend and with basically no talent in the system 2007. Don't know that I'd say the Cubs blow them out of the water. Even still, Cubs rebuild took 5 years to reach fruition. The Royals took about 7 years to return to relevance. And the Nats lucked/sucked into 2 generational talents in Stras and Harper. Yes they've drafted well elsewise, but Harper and Stras required no special scouting knowledge to make those picks.

 

[clvclv]

The Cubs and Nats blow them away with fewer picks.

And who else has picked at the top as often as the Royals did? They did a good job overall and a very good job of late, but it took a very long time to get that train rolling.

You can't even say that when some of the Cubs' recent call-ups reach three years of experience. You can "guess" that Bryant and Schwarber will be, and you can say that Harper and Strasburg are better than whatever Royals' combination someone picks out without argument. Again, read the entire conversation. Baez to this point is a reserve middle infielder. That makes him no better than Colon. Holland has been FAR more successful than Storen - one could argue that Hochevar has been better lately. Moustakas has as good a track-record as Rendon.

A huge part of looking at the whole picture is examining the picks that weren't "slam-dunks" or superstars...

Cubs:
2006 - Tyler Colvin (#13)
2007 - Josh Vitters (#3)
2010 - Hayden Simpson (#16)

Gnats:
2006 - Chris Marrero (#15)
2007 - Detweiler (#6)

Don't tell me how good they "can be" if everything goes right - show me what they've proven.

The question is who has been better than Dayton, not who might be as successful. If the fallback is "look at how high those picks were, Washington had back-to-back #1 picks. DMGM had one in ten years. Those two teams have been the closest IMO as well, but it's a little too early to say that either has been "better".

 

[smootness]

But with fewer dollars to spend and with basically no talent in the system 2007. Don't know that I'd say the Cubs blow them out of the water. Even still, Cubs rebuild took 5 years to reach fruition. The Royals took about 7 years to return to relevance. And the Nats lucked/sucked into 2 generational talents in Stras and Harper. Yes they've drafted well elsewise, but Harper and Stras required no special scouting knowledge to make those picks.

Huh? I'm talking solely about the kind of talent they've drafted at the top of the draft in that time span. The players the Cubs and Nats drafted are far better as a whole than the group the Royals drafted.

 

[smootness]

You can't even say that when some of the Cubs' recent call-ups reach three years of experience. You can "guess" that Bryant and Schwarber will be, and you can say that Harper and Strasburg are better than whatever Royals' combination someone picks out without argument. Again, read the entire conversation. Baez to this point is a reserve middle infielder. That makes him no better than Colon. Holland has been FAR more successful than Storen - one could argue that Hochevar has been better lately. Moustakas has as good a track-record as Rendon.

A huge part of looking at the whole picture is examining the picks that weren't "slam-dunks" or superstars...

Cubs:
2006 - Tyler Colvin (#13)
2007 - Josh Vitters (#3)
2010 - Hayden Simpson (#16)

Gnats:
2006 - Chris Marrero (#15)
2007 - Detweiler (#6)

Don't tell me how good they "can be" if everything goes right - show me what they've proven.

The question is who has been better than Dayton, not who might be as successful. If the fallback is "look at how high those picks were, Washington had back-to-back #1 picks. DMGM had one in ten years. Those two teams have been the closest IMO as well, but it's a little too early to say that either has been "better".

If you want to hitch your wagon to the idea that Christian Colon = Javier Baez, then you can do that. I will take Harper, Strasburg, and Rendon over the Royals' entire group. And I will take Bryant, Schwarber, Baez, and Almora over the Royals' group also. Every day.

Also, Moustakas = 8.9 WAR in 661 career games; Rendon = 6.9 WAR in 331 career games, even while battling injuries. I'll take Rendon's talent in that battle.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Ok time to do this. Going to list players drafted who reached the majors or are top 100 or so prospects right now.

Royals 2007 draft

-------------------------

#2 - 3B Mike Moosetacos -

#96- LHP Danny Duffy - Was decent last year but still never thrown 150 innings in a season going into age 27 season.

#306 - CL Greg Holland - 4 great years as a reliever but imploded midseason last year. Not sure how much more value he has left. Still good value for pick 300.

#336- OF David Lough - career backup

#756- 1B Clint Robinson - Just now turning into a solid bench player

Braves 2007

---------------------------

#7 - OF Jason Heywood - Better than anyone DM ever drafted for the Royals

#78- 1B Freddie Freeman - Better than anyone DM ever drafted for the Royals

#108- SS Brandon Hicks

#138- RP Cory Gearrin

2008 Royals

-----------------------

#3 - 1B Eric Hosmer

#36 - SP Mike Montgomery -

#49 - 2B Johnny Giavotella

#145 - SP John Lamb

Braves 2008

---------------------------

#70 - SP Zeke Spruill

#96 - CL Craig Kimbrell

#220 - RHP Paul Clemens

#250- SP Brett Obertholtzer

#310 - RP JJ Hoover

Royals 2009

-----------------------

#12 - LHP Aaron Crow

#91 - 3B Wil Myers - Really loved him as a draft prospect

#122 - P Chris Dwyer

#152- RP Louis Coleman

Braves 2009

--------------------

#7 - DL Mike Minor

#87- P David Hale - I dont think its fair to judge him based off pitching in Colorado but dont want to give him credit for being as good as he has been for us.

2010 Royals

------------------------

#4- Util Christian Colon

Braves 2010

------------------------

#53 - OF Todd Cunningham

#70 - SS Andrelton Simmons

#164- INF Phil Gosselin

#194- OF The Terd Burglar

#344- RP Chase Shreve

#404- 3B Brandon Drury

#704 - C El Oso Blanco

2011 Royals

-------------------------------

#5 OF Bubba Starling - Not even a Royals top 10 prospect anymore

#606- Runner - Terrence Gore - still seeking first ML hit.

2011 Braves

------------------

#28- RP Sean Gilmartin

#85- SS Nick Ahmed

#115- 3BB Kyle Kubitza

#146- RP JR Graham

#236- P Cody Martin

#366- 2B Tommy La Stella

#536- P Gus Schlosser

2012 Royals

--------------------

#5 DL Kyle Zimmer

2012 Braves

-------------------------

#21- SP Lucas Simms

#85- SP Alex Wood - Better career so far than any starter DM drafted

#689- RP Shae Simmons -

2013 Royals

--------------------------

#34- DL Sean Manea

2013 Braves

-------------------------

#463- RP Matt Marksberry - LOL

I dont know that its fair to judge beyond this because only Brandon Finnegan has made it to the majors and who knows where he goes from here anyways. Go ahead and rank all those players by whatever standard you want and then tell me the Royals drafted better. I might have missed a player or two but its not even close to me.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Sorry, thought I was responding to Cajun there. He normally is the anti-Dayton Moore poster on here.

The Royals were my AL team because I viewed them as the AL Braves plus I root for teams that havent won in a long time. I wanted DM to be our GM but having since seen the kind of moves he has made I changed my mind. I think it goes deeper than Moore though. Its their whole player development system. I think a lot of players they had would have been better under a competent organization like the Braves. Its unfathomable that the Royals havent developed a better SP than Duffy or Ventura in a long time. Greinke developed himself but was before DM anyways. I am really at the point where I just write off any SP taken by the Royals. The only good hitters they even drafted were top 5 picks. We havent had a top 5 pick in 25 years and drafted better hitters in Heywood/Freeman. No ones signing Hosmer or Moosetacos for 20 million a year unless they have a big time breakout. Greatest farm system ever and thats all you develop? Maybe they should be trading their prospects for established players since they invariable turn into ****.

 

[smootness]

The Braves' drafts from 2008-2011 highlight my issue with 'making the majors' as the determination for the success of a draft pick.

We did get Minor, Kimbrel, and Simmons in that span, but each of those guys completely maximized his ability and still were limited in terms of overall impact. Outside of those guys, a lot of the ones who made the majors became pretty much as good as they were ever going to be...and they still had minimal impact on the major league level. Our strategy was to draft based on floor throughout the draft, not ceiling. And because of that, we drafted a ton of guys who made the majors and very, very few who were actually impact guys or even had the chance to become that.

I'd rather draft 2-3 stars and a bunch of guys who don't even make the majors than 25 guys who make the majors as basically bench players.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Yeah I agree I really hated our draft strategy for a while. Drafting for a players floor is retarded in the early rounds.

 

[Knucksie]

What'd they do? Just re-arrange the names from the BA list?

 

[yeezus]

What'd they do? Just re-arrange the names from the BA list?

Are you surprised to see a lot of the same guys on top prospects lists?