Scouting the FA BP arms

Enscheff said:
If you were going to sign an expensive player and a cheap player, why would you sign the cheap player first and risk not having that money available to win the bidding on the expensive player?

Whoever signs someone like Hunter is going to win the bidding by $1M-$2M dollars. By prematurely committing a couple million to Moylan they could very well miss out on a real upgrade for the BP.

I'm guessing the Braves are shopping in the discount basket for a BP arm because that's all they can afford. Hope I'm wrong.
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I️ don’t disagree. I’d go for the better player first. They may hold out till later and hope the price comes down some.
 
I disagree. If you can get someone on the cheap in the beginning of the free agent process that is a role player you do it.

As always to remember "showing interest" is very vague
 
Enscheff said:
xwOBA takes park factors out of the equation.

Basically, I'll take the guy who is on the Top 10 lists for most Ks, least BBs, and has a sub-.300 xwOBA who signs for the least money...preferably RHed. That leaves Morrow, Neshek, Hunter, and Smith on the edge.

Brandon Morrow is probably the arm I like most, but I think he will be too expensive. He also has injury issues in his recent past, so I would be hesitant to invest big money in him.

Give me Neshek on a 1 year deal, maybe with an option. He's an 8-9 K/9 guy, should be good for less than 2 BB/9, has the best xwOBA of all available BP arms, and shouldn't require a huge contract due to being advanced in age. Probably something like $7M for 1 year plus another $7M option with a $1M buyout.

I also like Tommy Hunter on a good value deal (~$4M with an option), with Joe Smith as Plan C.

I don't see the need for 2 BP arms in a system built around pitching prospects.
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My Top 3 choices were immediately signed by other teams. The only guy left is Plan C...Joe Smith.
 
Yeah. All the value guys got scooped up. If everyone was looking at them maybe they won’t be a value after all.

I’m hoping AA has a plan. The complete inactivity is odd and frustrating. He’s been known to be a value junky, thus he’s never been a free agent guy. He’s gotta fill holes somehow though.
 
Chico said:
Yeah. All the value guys got scooped up. If everyone was looking at them maybe they won’t be a value after all.

I’m hoping AA has a plan. The complete inactivity is odd and frustrating. He’s been known to be a value junky, thus he’s never been a free agent guy. He’s gotta fill holes somehow though.
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Did the value guys sign for good value or was it like the consensus sleepers at your fantasy draft?
 
Chico said:
Yeah. All the value guys got scooped up. If everyone was looking at them maybe they won’t be a value after all.

I’m hoping AA has a plan. The complete inactivity is odd and frustrating. He’s been known to be a value junky, thus he’s never been a free agent guy. He’s gotta fill holes somehow though.
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It's not like there's stuff happening all over the place - the market's slow everywhere except New York and Miami.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
We have enough pitching to fill out a competent MLB pen. We could use some experience though.
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This is the reason I want Addison Reed. He's not going to be a "value signing", but he's about as solid as it gets at the back end. He doesn't walk anybody (less than 2 per 9 IP), and has loads of closing experience in the event you want him to fill that role.

Joe Smith is going to fly under the radar as well, and while it appears that they're just looking for one pen arm, you could probably come really close to being able to get he AND Jake McGee for about the same amount of money per season. If they're not in on Reed I'd love to add McGee on a 3 year deal and Smith on a 2 year deal - our pen depth would suddenly become a strength.
 
Southcack77 said:
Did the value guys sign for good value or was it like the consensus sleepers at your fantasy draft?
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They didn't sign for very good value at all, making them no longer value signs...as Chico pointed out. I imagine teams were looking at the same things I looked at when they targeted those guys.

However, I didn't pick them because they were value signs. I picked them because I think they will be the best BP arms available this offseason. I said, "I'll take the guy who is on the Top 10 lists for most Ks, least BBs, and has a sub-.300 xwOBA who signs for the least money".

Morrow signed for 2/18 plus a $12M option with a $3M buyout, 2/21 minimum. Morrow was my #1, but that's way too much for the Braves, as predicted.

Neshek signed for 2/16 plus a $7M option with a $700k buyout. I wanted him on a 1/7 deal with a $7M option, so I think the Braves were wise to skip him for that kind of money.

Hunter got 2/18. I completely whiffed by wanting him for $4M...dumb. MLBTR had him at 2/12 and FG had him at about the same. They were also low, but I was stupidly low.

All that's left from my list is Plan C...Joe Smith. Maybe he's the value play from my list?

Maybe the Braves go for one of the guys I pegged as BP conversion candidates? Peralta was already grabbed for exactly that reason.

Maybe the Braves do the smart thing and simply wait for someone to be left without a team and scoop them up in January?
 
Wow. Swarzak signs ith the Mets for 2/14. It feels like a fantasy baseball drafts where there's a run on relievers way too early
 
Enscheff said:
My Top 3 choices were immediately signed by other teams. The only guy left is Plan C...Joe Smith.
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Now rumblings of Joe Smith signing with the Astros.

That's all 4 guys I wanted the Braves to target for their BP off the board as the first 5-6 BP guys signed.
 
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