Second ('Third') Trump Presidency Thread

sturg33 said:
Just summarizing a few pages worth of posts

1. Hammered? No. Drunk and fun? Yes. Always enjoy poking the ultra high iq

2. Trump has developed a cult... and many believe he can do no wrong. Thethe engages in that behavior. Passing a $2t spending bill was not some amazing strategic long term thing. It was swamp status quo

3. Thethe absolutely takes some well timed breaks... most recently going missing for a several days while markets were puking daily. To.his credit, he came back and posted the views of Adam Townsend, Charlie Kirk, and catturd faithfully

4. Sturg33 is consistent.
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1. I can just always tell when you're drunk and clearly I nailed it last night. Always been more of a smoker and observed my friends getting hammered and how they changed in more subtle ways.

2. Every popular politician develops a cult. People still wax poetic about Regan to this day. Trump has been an unbelievably successful president and thats what people love.

3. Markets were puking or just acting like markets? Should I post every day and check in with you? Happy to do that in the future.

4. Except when it comes to the reality of the 2020 election and Trump being hte best policy president of your lifetime (then later hammered almost all of his policies)
 
mqt said:
For someone as invested in geopolitical trends as you often are, it’s shocking that you haven’t picked up on the fact that the past few years have been a bad one to be an incumbent party in. Many fewer Americans are buying your vision than you think, and many more just thought Trump could make prices go down.
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The post Obama radicalization period changed everything. We are seeing youth political views change to an extent we haven't seen in quite some time.
 
thethe said:
1. I can just always tell when you're drunk and clearly I nailed it last night. Always been more of a smoker and observed my friends getting hammered and how they changed in more subtle ways.

2. Every popular politician develops a cult. People still wax poetic about Regan to this day. Trump has been an unbelievably successful president and thats what people love.

3. Markets were puking or just acting like markets? Should I post every day and check in with you? Happy to do that in the future.

4. Except when it comes to the reality of the 2020 election and Trump being hte best policy president of your lifetime (then later hammered almost all of his policies)
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Two quick notes:

1) Markets puking and markets doing what markets do is the same thing really. And the markets didn’t like Trump’s actions.

2) Sturg is consistent about those two things. It just doesn’t match what you believe.
 
mqt said:
Two quick notes:

1) Markets puking and markets doing what markets do is the same thing really. And the markets didn’t like Trump’s actions.

2) Sturg is consistent about those two things. It just doesn’t match what you believe.
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Odd markets went back up yesterday - Didn't see any relief on Tariffs announced.

What will be the rationalie when markets are at their highs in 2026 even with tariffs on china?
 
thethe said:
The post Obama radicalization period changed everything. We are seeing youth political views change to an extent we haven't seen in quite some time.
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I’ve contemplated this a lot actually because it’s an interesting new trend. I think there was a baseline expectation that the younger generations would always lean more progressive or be reliably liberal that was flawed and is worth examining beyond just guessing or dismissing as a glitch in the system. It could be that the next generation will become reliably conservative in ways we haven’t seen in a few generations, and I can’t help but wonder if that is more cyclical than previously expected.
 
thethe said:
Odd markets went back up yesterday - Didn't see any relief on Tariffs announced.

What will be the rationalie when markets are at their highs in 2026 even with tariffs on china?
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Probably quantitative easing and low interest rates (i.e., massive deficits and inflation)
 
mqt said:
I’ve contemplated this a lot actually because it’s an interesting new trend. I think there was a baseline expectation that the younger generations would always lean more progressive or be reliably liberal that was flawed and is worth examining beyond just guessing or dismissing as a glitch in the system. It could be that the next generation will become reliably conservative in ways we haven’t seen in a few generations, and I can’t help but wonder if that is more cyclical than previously expected.
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Its more of when a political party goes off the deep end like saying men can become women as well as a party selling out the middle class (both Democrats/Republicans to be fair) you'll see these types of movements.

The key will be post Trump/Vance we find champions that govern with the same principles in mind.
 
thethe said:
TO be clear you are projecting an increase in the rate of inflation and overall inflation for the remainder of 2025?
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Unless we hit a recession. But I promise you that I will not be celebrating 2.8% inflation instead of 3%

Besides, 2025/2026 are mostly reflective of the Biden budgets. And yes I think those were inflationary
 
thethe said:
Its more of when a political party goes off the deep end like saying men can become women as well as a party selling out the middle class (both Democrats/Republicans to be fair) you'll see these types of movements.

The key will be post Trump/Vance we find champions that govern with the same principles in mind.
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Still think you’re overstating the impact of the culture side when the “selling out the middle class” part is what is driving election results. Young people might agree with you on some of these issues, but if **** doesn’t improve, it’ll be quite easy for smart Dems to make the argument that you’re too focused on things that impact a small percentage of people, which used to be the conservative attack on social issues championed by Progressives.
 
sturg33 said:
Unless we hit a recession. But I promise you that I will not be celebrating 2.8% inflation instead of 3%

Besides, 2025/2026 are mostly reflective of the Biden budgets. And yes I think those were inflationary
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Appropriated Spend and Actual Spend are not the same thing.

The next 6 months will show the same services that a governemnt should provide (aware we disagree on what these things should be) can be done at a fraction of the cost when waste/fraud/abuse are removed. This period will also show that a massive reduction in governemnt workforce (figured you'd cheer this) will not impact services either.

A great run up to a new spending bill.
 
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mqt said:
Still think you’re overstating the impact of the culture side when the “selling out the middle class” part is what is driving election results. Young people might agree with you on some of these issues, but if **** doesn’t improve, it’ll be quite easy for smart Dems to make the argument that you’re too focused on things that impact a small percentage of people, which used to be the conservative attack on social issues championed by Progressives.
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**** will improve - Just like it did for the middle class in his first term until the globalists did not like what they saw and released their bioweapon.

Costs are already down for middle class families in Trumps first 2 months and its only going to get better.

People are going to end up wondering if Tariffs are actually helping costs (becuase they won't break it down at a line item level - They will just see more take home and more savings).
 
I also agree with this RDS simp influencer that Trumps approval ratings will continue to fall (they already are) and thethe will either tell us the polling is fake now or that we will.need to wait 12 months for the big epic turnaround

[Tw]1900872011754143847[/tw]
 
sturg33 said:
I also agree with this RDS simp influencer that Trumps approval ratings will continue to fall (they already are) and thethe will either tell us the polling is fake now or that we will.need to wait 12 months for the big epic turnaround

[Tw]1900872011754143847[/tw]
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Who is projecting a fall in Trumps approval rating?

How close were they on the 2024 election?

What are the most accurate pollsters saying?
 
thethe said:
And how close were Reuters and Q during hte 2024 election.

You're much smarter than this but again influenced by people online saying stupid things.
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I don't care im looking at the average trend.

A month ago he was positive and today he is not.
 
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