Second ('Third') Trump Presidency Thread
- Thread starter thethe
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zbhargrove
Well-known member
Dude is absolutely falling apart mentally
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Black immigrants (and their children) are much more economically successful, achieve higher educational attainment and are much more upwardly mobile than old stock blacks. They also have much lower crime rates, in some studies below the crime rates of native-born whites.
This indicates a few thangs:
1) America gives great opportunities to everyone, regardless of race.
2) There are elmements of old stock black culture that are roadblocks to success.
3) Chetty's work point to some aspects of that culture. Lack of fathers in a particular census block is a strong indicator of poor outcomes for children growing in that census block.
4) Chetty's work also looks at some quasi-randomized experiments where certain families were given vouchers to move out of such low opportunity areas. The results are very strongly favorable on outcomes for those children.
5) Immigrants (including black immigrants) are very choosy in avoiding certain aspects of American culture and in avoiding certain places to live. That choosiness serves them well.
This indicates a few thangs:
1) America gives great opportunities to everyone, regardless of race.
2) There are elmements of old stock black culture that are roadblocks to success.
3) Chetty's work point to some aspects of that culture. Lack of fathers in a particular census block is a strong indicator of poor outcomes for children growing in that census block.
4) Chetty's work also looks at some quasi-randomized experiments where certain families were given vouchers to move out of such low opportunity areas. The results are very strongly favorable on outcomes for those children.
5) Immigrants (including black immigrants) are very choosy in avoiding certain aspects of American culture and in avoiding certain places to live. That choosiness serves them well.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Primary Drivers of the Post-1960s Collapse
- Welfare policy incentives (Great Society programs): AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children) and expansions paid benefits primarily to single mothers, with effective "marriage penalties" (benefits often cut or reduced if a father was present or married). This replaced the economic role of husbands/fathers for low-income women. Moynihan and later analysts (e.g., Heritage, Brookings) documented how this fueled the rise: out-of-wedlock births and single motherhood surged exactly as welfare rolls expanded. Pre-1960s, no such system existed at scale, so economic necessity reinforced marriage.
- Cultural shifts: The 1960s sexual revolution, contraception/abortion availability, no-fault divorce (widespread by 1970s), and declining stigma around illegitimacy reduced "shotgun marriages." Brookings estimated ~60% of the Black rise (1965-1990) tied to fewer premarital conceptions ending in marriage. Welfare amplified this for the poor.
- Economic/urban factors secondary: Black male unemployment and urbanization played roles (noted in Moynihan), but families were stable pre-1960 despite worse conditions. Post-1960s job losses in manufacturing hit low-skill men harder, but policy/culture explain the timing and racial disparity better than economics alone.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Golden Age