Shane Greene to Atl being reported

tululush said:
I heard/read after the trade that when AA was asked who would be our closer now he responded, "I'll leave that up to Snitker to decide." Please tell me that is lip service. Greene has to be our closer, or at the very least the first person to go to and let him ride out that role as long as he's successful? Snit can't be stupid enough to share the closer's role between Greene and Jackson? Please, someone tell me?
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It is an interesting question. A number of considerations go into it. Greene has been closing this year (22 saves in 38 games pitched). Melancon has experience closing but this year has just 1 save in 43 games pitched. Martin has 4 saves in 38 games.

In terms of effectiveness, here are some 2019 numbers to chew on:

Greene 3.70 FIP 3.80 xFIP .282 xwOBA
Melancon 3.33 FIP 3.47 xFIP .299 xwOBA
Martin 4.01 FIP 2.93 xFIP .290 xwOBA

In terms of usage, Martin has pitched more than 1 inning twice, Melancon 7 times and Greene not at all this season.

Greene has pitched consecutive days 9 times (and twice pitched 3 straight days), Melancon 4 times, and Martin 8 times.

Martin has more loss of effectiveness than the other two when pitching consecutive days.

From this my recommendations would be to have Greene close, and to lean on Melancon more when you need a second inning.

Of our incumbents, Jackson, Newk and Tomlin can all give you multiple innings. Jackson is good for consecutive days too (but not after throwing 30 pitches).

Martin has not pitched much the past couple weeks (back issue). His three most recent appearances are July 26, July 21, July 13. Not a lot of work and he hasn't been as sharp in those 3 appearances. Might want to ease him into things with a couple low leverage appearances.
 
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The Tigers have selected the contract of outfielder Travis Demeritte from Triple-A Toledo, as per a team announcement. Righty Eduardo Jimenez has also been called up from Toledo.

Demeritte is set for his big league debut just a day after joining the Tigers. The 24-year-old was dealt to Detroit yesterday along with southpaw Joey Wentz in the trade that sent Shane Greene to the Braves.
 
tululush said:
I think Greene and Martin are. Not sure about Melancon, although he’s pitched very well the last month. When I say not sure, I mean I’m genuinely not sure.

I’m starting to really dislike Jackson, but his peripheral numbers suggest he’s been very unlucky. However, at a certain point you can’t ignore what’s happening out there, lucky or not.
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Jackson has a 35% k rate and a 65% ground ball rate. He has a .80 spread between xBA and BA, on ground balls which explains and confirms that big Babip. So yeah, he’s been pretty unlucky.
 
Southcack77 said:
Jackson has a 35% k rate and a 65% ground ball rate. He has a .80 spread between xBA and BA, on ground balls which explains and confirms that big Babip. So yeah, he’s been pretty unlucky.
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Jackson gets a lot of weak contact on his slider when it's on but that makes for all the infield hits, unless you have a Simmons at short instead of what we have that will continue. He also has been very lucky this year, see the Charlie clutch game and the Markakis catch game in S.D. where the Padres ran out of pinch hitters as he was falling apart. Charlie also saved a lead off double in a save vs Chicago on a great sliding catch. Those games he was lucky not to have blown saves.
 
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Thank we are going to like Greene... from DOB on Twitter:

Someone asked #Braves newcomer Shane Greene what his role would be. He didn’t hesitate with his reply: “I’ll be out there in the ninth.”
And yes, he exudes swagger. Grew up a Braves fan in Central Florida, favorite player: “Chipper Jones.”
 
Greene is a total redneck like the rest of us ('cept for cheff) ... of course we are gonna love his Waylon listening to, Copenhagen dippin' cocky ass...
 
cajunrevenge said:
Not surprised. I bet he becomes a really good prospect after he comes back. I think he has been damaged good for a while. Good to happen while still in the minors.
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Was it the numbers he put up after he was traded or the fact that he wasn't a Braves' prospect anymore that kept you from being surprised?

He was absolutely lights-out after the trade, and it's pretty tough to figure that his 37/4 K/BB Ratio in 25.2 IP signaled some obvious underlying injury, sorry.
 
clvclv said:
Was it the numbers he put up after he was traded or the fact that he wasn't a Braves' prospect anymore that kept you from being surprised?

He was absolutely lights-out after the trade, and it's pretty tough to figure that his 37/4 K/BB Ratio in 25.2 IP signaled some obvious underlying injury, sorry.
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Maybe it’s just because he’s a pitcher, and pitcher injuries should never really be surprising?
 
jpx7 said:
Maybe it’s just because he’s a pitcher, and pitcher injuries should never really be surprising?
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Agreed.

Shouldn't this mean you should NEVER spend big money on ANY Pitcher since he's inevitably going to get hurt during the contract?
 
jpx7 said:
Yes.

(Greg Maddux is the single exception.)
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Which is what makes watching these "genius GMs" continue to throw big dollars at them so interesting (and funny).

This is one of the reasons I'd be so interested in trying to work out Archer or Snell-type extensions with Soroka and Fried at this point. With their injury histories, is it really that reasonable to believe that they'd be completely unwilling to go ahead and pocket $50 million now with the ability to try to score big again at age 27 and 31 if they somehow manage to stay healthy?

With innings limits and pitch counts tightening by the day, the chances for ANY SP to put up monster seasons like Verlander/Scherzer/Cole/etc. have in their best years is disappearing fast - just as the chance to land 6-8 year deals at top of the market dollars is going to become less and less likely. If they're willing to gamble that type of money on the chance they WON'T miss significant time sometime in the next 3 years (particularly with their routines so compromised this season), best of luck to them - and I hope the arbitration system rewards them. There's very little chance most of us would do that with previously existing shoulder and elbow issues. IIRC, there was an article at one point that intimated that a Pitcher's FIRST TJS came with a reasonable expectation that he would be relatively healthy (at least his elbow would if all recommendations were followed) for 7 or so years. Fried's TJS came in August of 2014 so he's beginning to sneak up on the end of that period, and we're all aware of how (understandably) leery of shoulder concerns front offices are.
 
clvclv said:
Was it the numbers he put up after he was traded or the fact that he wasn't a Braves' prospect anymore that kept you from being surprised?

He was absolutely lights-out after the trade, and it's pretty tough to figure that his 37/4 K/BB Ratio in 25.2 IP signaled some obvious underlying injury, sorry.
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His velocity on his FB was inconsistent and he couldnt hit his previous peaks. I have thought he was a TJ candidate for a while and that it would probably be a good thing for him. I think he had a lot of wear and tear on the arm and once he gets fully recovered he will come back throwing 97.
 
The most predictive thing for TJ is being a pitcher. The next most predictive things are previous elbow issues (book TJ the moment you hear anything about forearm/elbow tightness/soreness/tingling), and sudden increases in velocity.

This is why folks shouldn't be so scared to deal these FV 50 arms for immediate help when a team is in contention. This is also why it is foolish to guarantee any cash to any pitcher for more than 2-3 years at a time beyond their 20s, at which point they are both declining and still a massive injury risk.

Smart GMs obviously know this, but the pressure to win now while they have a job outweighs the consequences 5+ years from now when they could very well be out of a job anyways.
 
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