Shanks Follows Up On His Heyward Article

I'm in between on this...I tend to agree that Heyward has not come close to the expectations put on him, but it may have been unfair to put them on him in the first place.

Heyward still has issues that he seems to jam himself on inside pitches and he can't reach the outside pitch.
 
Orphan Black said:
I'm in between on this...I tend to agree that Heyward has not come close to the expectations put on him, but it may have been unfair to put them on him in the first place.

Heyward still has issues that he seems to jam himself on inside pitches and he can't reach the outside pitch.
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It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season, and he sure isn't going to be doing it this season. His offense isn't worthy of the multi-year deal some would sign him to. Even if he has a great year next year, I would be hesitant to offer him a multi-year deal. I'd like to see him hit well in back to back seasons before committing to a big deal. He needs to prove that he's not a streaky hitter.
 
gtcway said:
It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season, and he sure isn't going to be doing it this season. His offense isn't worthy of the multi-year deal some would sign him to. Even if he has a great year next year, I would be hesitant to offer him a multi-year deal. I'd like to see him hit well in back to back seasons before committing to a big deal. He needs to prove that he's not a streaky hitter.
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The most frustrating part of his struggles is that he clearly has major issues with his hands before his swing. He has way too much movement and is never in a good position to hit. He can't hit an inside pitch hard at all. I'm confident that if he just stops with all the excess hand movement and simplifies his mechanics, he will be fine.
 
gtcway said:
It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season,
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Um...Is everyone just ignoring the monster year he had last season? I love how his walk % is good, his K's have gone way down and his LD% is at an all time high. Nothing but positive things. You can't guide a baseball to find holes. Truly the 23 year old has no upside.
 
gtcway said:
It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season, and he sure isn't going to be doing it this season. His offense isn't worthy of the multi-year deal some would sign him to. Even if he has a great year next year, I would be hesitant to offer him a multi-year deal. I'd like to see him hit well in back to back seasons before committing to a big deal. He needs to prove that he's not a streaky hitter.
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his last year surpassed his rookie season
 
BremanFan88 said:
Um...Is everyone just ignoring the monster year he had last season? I love how his walk % is good, his K's have gone way down and his LD% is at an all time high. Nothing but positive things. You can't guide a baseball to find holes. Truly the 23 year old has no upside.
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While Heyward is unlucky (someone with his speed should never have a BABIP of .250) the is a reason to be concerned with his production this year. It's his power. He is having a very un-Hetward power season.
 
I don't see how anyone can be comfortable with the year Heyward is having. I still feel he will be a good player but **** the guy has to start showing it more consistently.
 
The "Heyward is unlucky" line is far past its expiration date. It's almost August.

I think the camera guys and the production purposely try not to focus on Heyward's ugly bat gripping ticks but's so pronounced it's hard not to talk about it when you look at it. Joe Simpson must be on strict orders not to harp on it. Not only does he wear himself out re-gripping before the pitch but when the ball starts coming he completely re-grips again and goes to a totally different hand position.

Why can't he just grip it softly and get into that position to begin with???
 
I don't know whether Heyward will ever live up to the expectations we've pinned on him. I mean, come on. Your first Opening Day and you're catching the first pitch from Hank Aaron and driving a home run out in your first at-bat? The expectations went through the roof.

Whether he will be the next Aaron isn't clear, yet. But in looking for old video to see if his bat grip had changed since that rookie year, I found this video from ESPN's E:60. I don't know how I missed it, but it gives me a new perspective on Jason and a new reason to root for him.

 
Runnin said:
The "Heyward is unlucky" line is far past its expiration date. It's almost August.

I think the camera guys and the production purposely try not to focus on Heyward's ugly bat gripping ticks but's so pronounced it's hard not to talk about it when you look at it. Joe Simpson must be on strict orders not to harp on it. Not only does he wear himself out re-gripping before the pitch but when the ball starts coming he completely re-grips again and goes to a totally different hand position.

Why can't he just grip it softly and get into that position to begin with???
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So players can't be unlucky for extended periods of time?

Let me relay some facts to you, only Braves related

Of our regulars (guys with 100+ PA) Heyward has the 6th highest LD% only guys still on the team with higher are Freeman, Johnson, and Mac. Now remember 6th highest LD%. Of that same group, Heyward is 10th in BABIP. Ignoring that Heyward should be reaching safely on more grounders cause of his speed than Mac, Freeman or Johnson, ignoring that, guys who have high LD% usually have high BABIP like Freeman and Johnson. Heyward doesn't. That's pretty easy to construe as being unlucky. It's not like he's being like Simmons or Bossman who're hitting 20% Infield Flys. Sure there's reasons to be concerned with Heyward (power related) but there's also plenty of reasons to be OK with his offensive production knowing that he should have a higher BABIP and shoudl have more hits.
 
zitothebrave said:
So players can't be unlucky for extended periods of time?
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No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.
 
Runnin said:
No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.
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From a statistical point of view the more observations (at bats) the more likely the overall numbers reflect a players underlying abilities. However, even with large samples there will be a few players in either tail (the very unlucky and very lucky).
 
Runnin said:
No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.
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Well the good luck pulled Heyward's numbers from abysmal to league averageish. He's still on the bad luck side of things. For example, it's been over half a season and Chris Johnson still has a BABIP over .400. There's no way he stays that high in a larger sample, but he's there at this point, what's the explanation? Good luck. Heyward since coming back from his injury has a .737 OPS, not great by any stretch of the imagination but considering over that time he has a BABIP of .289 I think that's more of an indication of how his numbers should be on the year. Still concern because his power isn't there, if he had his iso from last year and his BABIP from last year this could be his line

.284/.356/.494

If he was doing that not a soul would complain. He's having 2 issues, one is bad luck other is lack of power, the latter is a real concern, his average isn't.
 
zitothebrave said:
Well the good luck pulled Heyward's numbers from abysmal to league averageish. He's still on the bad luck side of things. For example, it's been over half a season and Chris Johnson still has a BABIP over .400. There's no way he stays that high in a larger sample, but he's there at this point, what's the explanation? Good luck. Heyward since coming back from his injury has a .737 OPS, not great by any stretch of the imagination but considering over that time he has a BABIP of .289 I think that's more of an indication of how his numbers should be on the year. Still concern because his power isn't there, if he had his iso from last year and his BABIP from last year this could be his line

.284/.356/.494

If he was doing that not a soul would complain. He's having 2 issues, one is bad luck other is lack of power, the latter is a real concern, his average isn't.
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Dude,

His power didn't just evaporate. His lack of power is caused by something probably some type of bad habit or trying to muscle pitches with his arms. I don't know, I am no hitting coach. But, that same bad habit probably contributes to a low BABIP because he isn't hitting anything with any authority. I have it on good authority that the Turner Field crew is having to resod the area from home to the 2B because he has chopped the dirt out with those 10 hoppers to second.

Ok that last part was a fib. My point is, the power and poor contact are a product of him being not being in sync. Maybe those LD% are the choppers to 2nd. Maybe there is too much lift on em. Lets not act like he has just been slapping rockets around...because that isn't true.
 
Runnin said:
No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.
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Well, we've played ~3.5 months of baseball. Heyward missed ~ one month, and was excellent for ~ one month. So we are really only talking about being unlucky for ~ a month and a half, not "more than half of a season."
 
Tapate50 said:
Dude,

His power didn't just evaporate. His lack of power is caused by something probably some type of bad habit or trying to muscle pitches with his arms. I don't know, I am no hitting coach. But, that same bad habit probably contributes to a low BABIP because he isn't hitting anything with any authority. I have it on good authority that the Turner Field crew is having to resod the area from home to the 2B because he has chopped the dirt out with those 10 hoppers to second.

Ok that last part was a fib. My point is, the power and poor contact are a product of him being not being in sync. Maybe those LD% are the choppers to 2nd. Maybe there is too much lift on em. Lets not act like he has just been slapping rockets around...because that isn't true.
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I'm no economist, but the recession is caused by angel pee.

Heyward is hitting over 20% line drives. On line drives alone he should have about 35 hits or so plus his 7 homers that means his other 155 non infield fly balls resulted in 16 hits. Think about that number. If you do the same elementary math for say Chris Johnson and he has 47 hits or so on line drives plus 6 homers meaning on his other 159 AB that weren't IFFB he had 43 hits. Again think about that

Is Chris Johnson doing anything more spectacular than Heyward? No not really. Is his swing less "muscly" not really. Some guys have luck some years, some guys don't
 
I think Heyward's problem is that his hands seem to be way ahead of his hips. To me, and I don't watch as much as I used to, he saws himself off a lot. He's just out of sync. That would at least partially explain the decline in his power numbers.
 
zitothebrave said:
I'm no economist, but the recession is caused by angel pee.

Heyward is hitting over 20% line drives. On line drives alone he should have about 35 hits or so plus his 7 homers that means his other 155 non infield fly balls resulted in 16 hits. Think about that number. If you do the same elementary math for say Chris Johnson and he has 47 hits or so on line drives plus 6 homers meaning on his other 159 AB that weren't IFFB he had 43 hits. Again think about that

Is Chris Johnson doing anything more spectacular than Heyward? No not really. Is his swing less "muscly" not really. Some guys have luck some years, some guys don't
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So fake numbers + made up numbers = fake numbers we should be happy with

Got it. I think?

Johnson has been hitting the ball way better than Heyward. Heyward has NOT been hitting 1/5 balls as line drives. That just isn't accurate.
 
Tapate50 said:
So fake numbers + made up numbers = fake numbers we should be happy with

Got it. I think?

Johnson has been hitting the ball way better than Heyward. Heyward has NOT been hitting 1/5 balls as line drives. That just isn't accurate.
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I'd like to see your data refuting the data that was independently collected.
 
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