Sherman: Braves offered Heyward 80M after 2013

chop2chip said:
I don't necessarily believe that market rate = player worth. This is relying on the economic principle that wage = marginal revenue product (or the value that player contributes). It's fine and dandy, but has never been proven to be actually quantifiable. $/WAR is a good baseline to attempt to do that, but the mere fact that two versions of WAR exist for the general public (and likely 30 different version for each team) shows how incredibly difficult that process is. This isn't even accounting for the fact that different players provide different values to different markets (for example, Russell Martin is more valuable to Toronto than any other team because he's Canadian and Canadians are weirdly loyal to other Canadians).

The reality is that the "winner's curse" paradox essentially guarantees that all free agents are overpaid since typically only the team that signs that player values them that much. If I was a betting man, I would bet that the average free agent contract is going to be an overpay for that exact reason, meaning there's a really good chance Heyward gets paid a lot more than his actual worth.
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You're right that valuation has more to do with off-field value. Braves should value Heyward more than the average team as a local boy he should be looked at in a more positive tone for that.

And there is a reason different versions of WAR exist, and it's because WAR is a countable stat based off rate stats. It's usually a countable offensive stat plus a countable defensive stat. Then it's position and league adjusted which both use the same adjustment for that. In reality aside from pitchers the offensive numbers aren't too far off. Fangraphs uses the less sensational UZR and B-Ref uses DRS, that's probably th ebiggest given difference. By my simple calculations the overall RAR difference on offense between BRef and fangraphs on Heyward is about 1 per year, which isn't really massive.
 
I don't believe that we can pay Heyward that kind of money without some uptick in production. I know he is average , but if we sign him to market ... Average isn't good enough.

I'd rather sign someone to more money for more bat.

*as this team is currently constructed

I find it very interesting we are even having this discussion civilly because just a year or two back to question if Heyward was a superstar was basically blasphemy.
 
Here's the rub with Heyward, he's younger than your average FA. For position players, only 7 free agents will be under 30, the majority of them (5 out of 7) will be 29, Justin is 28, Jason is 26. He's the rare young free agent. The rare free agent you can sign to a 7 year deal and likely still be productive at the end of it. If Heyward was playing to his potential, he'd get 200+ million. I think the Ellsbury contract iwll be more realistic. Maybe a little lower, but it's so rare for a 26 year old free agent ot be out there.
 
CyYoung31 said:
I'd pay Simmons 20 million a year. Right now anyway.
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thewupk said:
Sure. If he's a league average bat and saving 25-30 runs per season with his glove then he will most certainly be worth that once his contract is up. Will the Braves pay that? Doubtful since the Braves are cheap. But he would be worth that and would get it once he's on the market.
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Fair enough.

I value defense alot, in all sports, but paying a guy top of the line money because they are an all-world defender but average offensively doesnt make much sense.
 
zitothebrave said:
You're right that valuation has more to do with off-field value. Braves should value Heyward more than the average team as a local boy he should be looked at in a more positive tone for that.

And there is a reason different versions of WAR exist, and it's because WAR is a countable stat based off rate stats. It's usually a countable offensive stat plus a countable defensive stat. Then it's position and league adjusted which both use the same adjustment for that. In reality aside from pitchers the offensive numbers aren't too far off. Fangraphs uses the less sensational UZR and B-Ref uses DRS, that's probably th ebiggest given difference. By my simple calculations the overall RAR difference on offense between BRef and fangraphs on Heyward is about 1 per year, which isn't really massive.
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So because he was a local player means we should pay him 150-200 mil when he's an average hitter and all-world defender?

And what happens if his defense falls off soon, you're paying 25+ mil and have an albratross contract on the books.
 
zitothebrave said:
Here's the rub with Heyward, he's younger than your average FA. For position players, only 7 free agents will be under 30, the majority of them (5 out of 7) will be 29, Justin is 28, Jason is 26. He's the rare young free agent. The rare free agent you can sign to a 7 year deal and likely still be productive at the end of it. If Heyward was playing to his potential, he'd get 200+ million. I think the Ellsbury contract iwll be more realistic. Maybe a little lower, but it's so rare for a 26 year old free agent ot be out there.
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I agree with you on that.

But i still dont pay someone an insane amount of money because of potential, and defense which can go away in 2-3 years or not be as good as it is now.
 
Heyward said:
Fair enough.

I value defense alot, in all sports, but paying a guy top of the line money because they are an all-world defender but average offensively doesnt make much sense.
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The thing is that's not top dollar. It's an insane amount for sure but not even close to top dollar anymore. We are in an era where the top players in baseball are getting 30 million a year and league average players past 30 are making 11-12 million a year.
 
thewupk said:
The thing is that's not top dollar. It's an insane amount for sure but not even close to top dollar anymore. We are in an era where the top players in baseball are getting 30 million a year and league average players past 30 are making 11-12 million a year.
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Yes, i know the inflation is baseball is stupid but still thats alot of money for an all-world defender and hitter who continues to be what he is.

I think he'll do better as the year goes on but we keep hearing out potential while some of yall seem to think we got rid of a top 10 player at the time.
 
thewupk said:
The thing is that's not top dollar. It's an insane amount for sure but not even close to top dollar anymore. We are in an era where the top players in baseball are getting 30 million a year and league average players past 30 are making 11-12 million a year.
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Well sure, if management doesn't freeze your payroll for a decade and a half. So... For most teams I agree. Not us.

Look what BJs deal did to us financially.
 
thewupk said:
Yeah our ownership stinks
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Truth.

If the Braves are going to pay a player $20 MM per year or more, that guy has to give them something both offensively and defensively, with heavy emphasis on the offense. Heyward is too one-dimensional for a team with our payroll limitations. That doesn't mean Heyward isn't worth what he's going to get - just that the Braves can't afford to pay that much for a defense-first guy.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Truth.

If the Braves are going to pay a player $20 MM per year or more, that guy has to give them something both offensively and defensively, with heavy emphasis on the offense. Heyward is too one-dimensional for a team with our payroll limitations. That doesn't mean Heyward isn't worth what he's going to get - just that the Braves can't afford to pay that much for a defense-first guy.
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I'd rather pay a really good hitter and average defensive player $20+ mil than an average hitter and really good defensive player. It's basically Freeman vs. Heyward. Freeman is clearly a more valuable player.
 
yeezus said:
this is a crap comparison. different era, positions, and skill levels along with the longevity that robinson and smith had that heyward hasn't yet.
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How is it crap? Smith and Robinson are examples are superstars that were elite defenders and meh offensively on the whole. The fact that these players were voted into the HOF means that baseball has valued defense a great deal in the past and continues to do so. And the fact that advanced defensive stats support their induction into the HOF also brings validity that advanced stats do work.

I'm not saying Heyward is either one of those. Longevity does play a huge role here and who knows how long Heyward will be where he is at with the glove. But if it is sustained I don't see you can say isn't to be considered a superstar. A run saved is just as important as a run created.
 
yeezus said:
I'd rather pay a really good hitter and average defensive player $20+ mil than an average hitter and really good defensive player. It's basically Freeman vs. Heyward. Freeman is clearly a more valuable player.
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I would agree with your first part. A really good hitter with average defense is more valuable than an averge hitter with really good defense. But that doesn't really apply to Heyward and Freeman. Since Freeman is a really good hitter with below avg defense while Heyward is an average hitter with elite defense. You might consider that semantics but it does add up. Freeman has never had an overall season as good as Heywards best.
 
thewupk said:
How is it crap?
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As I said: different era, different positions, longevity that is not comparable at the moment. ozzie's value as an out-of-this-world defensive SS is higher and clearly appreciated more. there's just too much difference to say, let's say last year's Heyward, is at Ozzie-level importance.
 
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