Should We Be Worried?

If you look at the team without Heyward, it's not a big shock. The starting staff is filled with youngsters and I think all of them have surpassed their max innings total for any year in their career. (Teheran is 30 innings over so far) It's unreasonable to expect none of these guys to have tired arms. That is the problem with the Hudson injury and why postseason teams typically have a vet or 2 in the rotation.

And really without Heyward, the lineup is not that strong. Freeman and McCann are really the only bats pitchers really fear. (and McCann has slowed down a bit) THere are just too many outs in the lineup on any given day.
 
Early in the season, pitchers were afraid of giving up HR's to the Braves and rightfully so. That fear is no longer there as the threat isn't there. Yep, too many outs. At this point, why even pitch to FF?

In other news, Garcia is making a push to be in the playoff rotation. Medlen, Garcia, Minor. Maybe not that scary, yet its the best we've got.
 
gilesfan said:
The starting staff is filled with youngsters and I think all of them have surpassed their max innings total for any year in their career. (Teheran is 30 innings over so far) It's unreasonable to expect none of these guys to have tired arms. That is the problem with the Hudson injury and why postseason teams typically have a vet or 2 in the rotation.
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Yeah. In a lot of ways this is the season Minor, Medlen and Teheran are getting blooded. They are pitching significantly more innings than they ever have. They will pitch some pressure games in the post-season. It will be good for them in the long run. But I think you have to be realistic about what you can expect from a young and inexperienced rotation.

People forget how young this team is. In terms of average batter age, we are second youngest to Houston. In terms of pitcher age, we're tied for third youngest, behind Miami and St. Louis. Combining the two, we are the second youngest to Houston. Not too many teams that are the youngest in their league win it all. Usually when you are this young, you are a rebuilding team.

This is why I was hoping for KC or Tampa to fall out of contention. I would have loved a James Shield or David Price to lead the rotation.
 
FWIW our pitching age is thrown off by a few vets. Hudson, Garcia, Downs, and Ayala aren't normal old, they're all 35+. St. Louis only has Westbrook and Choate in that extra old group. Odds of any much less multiple of the very old crew coming back for us aren't very high. Garcia is gone, maybe we'd keep him in AAA. Hudson is potentially gone depending on cost (would love to keep him) I assume Downs is gone, he makes a healthy chunk of change and I think I'd rather try to keep EOF or Venters even though there is a risk with those 2, they're more dominant than Downs, Ayala may be kept around if he'll sign for cheap.
 
I've always had extremely tempered expectations of how this team would do in the playoffs anyway. Although very fun, this has been one of the most frustrating seasons in recent memory. I still can't believe how many poor performances we've got across the board from our hitters. The Upton brothers have been disappointments to say the least (we were hoping for an MVP type season out of Justin, it's not even close), Uggla is the worst hitter in the league, and Heyward was a huge disappointment outside of that dominant stretch.

Our bullpen has been better than anyone expected even with the injuries, but recent injuries are taking their tole. Our rotation has been surprisingly steady, but we don't have the dominant power pitching that usually succeeds in the playoffs. We knew this going in.
 
I'd keep Garcia as a long man or AAA depth.

No guarantee Cristian Martinez comes back 100% after shoulder surgery, which is way riskier than TJ now.
 
If I've learned anything, unless Heyward is going to be the leadoff hitter going forward past this year, we've got to find someone to stabilize the top of the order this offseason. I know Bourn tailed off in the second half typically, but it's nice having that presence there. I've also accepted that with our luck, we're never going to be healthy come playoff time. So, having several good veterans will be big. If this young team can at least win the NLDS and experience some postseason success, it'll do them a world of good next year and beyond.
 
zitothebrave said:
FWIW our pitching age is thrown off by a few vets. Hudson, Garcia, Downs, and Ayala aren't normal old, they're all 35+. St. Louis only has Westbrook and Choate in that extra old group. Odds of any much less multiple of the very old crew coming back for us aren't very high. Garcia is gone, maybe we'd keep him in AAA. Hudson is potentially gone depending on cost (would love to keep him) I assume Downs is gone, he makes a healthy chunk of change and I think I'd rather try to keep EOF or Venters even though there is a risk with those 2, they're more dominant than Downs, Ayala may be kept around if he'll sign for cheap.
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Ayala has done a nice job for us. But he is also outperforming his peripherals. I'm not sure he can sustain this sort of performance into 2014. Besides, I think we have a pretty strong group from the right side for next year's pen. Kimbrel, Walden and Carpenter are givens. Varvaro, Gearrin, Martinez (if we bring him back), Hale and Martin can compete for the remaining one or two spots.

The left side of the pen is a little bit more up in the air. Avilan will be back. Venters should be back in May or June. I would also see if we can bring back EOF. There is a little bit of an issue with starting the year with just one lefty. We've seen how Avilan has been overused this year, especially during the periods when he has been the only lefty in the pen. The way that Fredi manages the pen, I think optimally you want three lefties, though preferably no more than one LOOGY.

We also have the option of using Wood in the pen. If we bring back Hudson and the other four (Minor, Medlen, Teheran, Beachy) come out of spring training healthy, we have a decision to make with Wood. Most teams end up using 7 or 8 starters, so I'm happy to have six good ones coming out of spring training. The question then would be do you put Wood in the pen or in the AAA rotation. You can always send him to AAA to get his arm stretched out if there is a need. Putting him in the pen allows you to have a second lefty during the period when Venters and maybe EOF are still in rehab.
 
Next year will be typical Braves team IMO. Anywhere of 6-12 new faces coming out of spring training.

Heyward is not the long term answer at leadoff. A waste of talent IMO. Needs to be down in the order. 5 hole suit anyone else.

Pretty sure McCann is gone.

Hope Uggla is gone.

Is it time to trade Kimbrel? Value is at its peak.

If Justin Upton cant be used in the lineup where best suited, who/what would you trade him for.

Unfortunately all we can do about BJ is pray he finds his way back to productivity.

Not a whole lot of fixing required for the pitching staff.
 
This is probably a comparison that few will agree with, but even as early as mid season of Heyward's rookie year I thought he was a supersized version of Kenny Lofton (his size cutting down on speed) rather than a power hitter. His swing and the way that he spanks the ball is more indicative of a top of the order hitter. Now, he is a large man and does have big power, but I think most will agree that he isn't the typical power hitter.

I'm fine with him as a leadoff hitter if he continues to thrive.
 
yeezus said:
If we lose, it's because playoffs are a crapshoot.
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Everybody knows that you've got to play your best in October so it's not exactly a crapshoot. This team has had more than one good run this year so I'm confident they have another one it them. Our young pitching is definitely a concern as much as the anemic offense.
 
Bdawg2309 said:
i highly doubt heyward is the difference between first round exit and WS title
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He absolutely is.

He's arguably the best defensive right fielder in baseball, gets on base at a good clip, has good,power. He's a five tool player.

Don't think he comes back strong if he does come back at all, but he's the difference.
 
Next season, I would just focus on getting rid of Uggla and replacing him with a leadoff type hitter.

Leadoff type - 2B
JUpton - RF
Freeman - 1B
Gattis - C
Heyward - RF
CJohnson - 3B
BJ Upton - CF
Simmons - SS

I HIGHLY doubt BJ repeats the season he has had this year. Other than that, the lineup is strong.
 
The Upton brothers have really struggled with timing this season. I mean, BJ can get a 2-0 fastball down the pipe and is late on it. Justin at least will concentrate on driving the ball oppo when he is having trouble catching up. But it is weird that JUp has had only two stretches the entire season where he pulled the ball with authority.
 
yeezus said:
Damn you guys are annoying. Yes we're cold. Every single team goes cold. Remember when we swept the Cards and what their fans were saying? Just calm down. Kimbrel blew his first save in ages. If we lose, it's because playoffs are a crapshoot. There's nothing to "worry" about.
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Fantastic post.

Make the play-offs. Then you have roughly a 1/4 shot of making the WS and a 1/8 shot of winning the whole thing. May as well toss everything else out the window and enjoy the spectacle.
 
Dunit24 said:
Next season, I would just focus on getting rid of Uggla and replacing him with a leadoff type hitter.

Leadoff type - 2B
JUpton - RF
Freeman - 1B
Gattis - C
Heyward - RF
CJohnson - 3B
BJ Upton - CF
Simmons - SS

I HIGHLY doubt BJ repeats the season he has had this year. Other than that, the lineup is strong.
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The 2b leadoff is a Pipedream. Only 6 qualified 2b have an obp over .350. Only Scutaro and Zobrist are outside shots of being acquired. LA Stella is a better option than most realistic 2B
 
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