Simmons dealt to Angels for two top pitchers, Aybar

rico43 said:
I am relieved that, the more time passes since this deal went down, the more reasoned thinking is finding a voice. I hated the way Simmons regressed as a hitter and he didn't seem to be interested in fixing his swing at all.
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I'm neutral on the trade but this year Simmons looked like he was working on and having some success with his approach at the plate. Of course his power was down but he was making a lot of contact and getting hits.
 
zbhargrove said:
Since when has Simmons ever been anywhere close to a decent hitter besides maybe his first 60 at-bats in the majors? This was a great trade. Newcomb is a special type of pitching prospect.
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Second half of 2013 he had a .472 slugging% and he finished the year with 17 HR and 50 combined extra base hits. This was coming off the good 160 at bats he had to finish the year in Atlanta in 2012 so it was looking like his poor first half was the aberration not the reality. We've now had 2 full seasons where he fell flat on his face at the plate. Not sure we could still reasonably accept that he will get better with more experience. I would still put my money on him having an Ozzie like career and we just made the same mistake the Padres did.
 
As time passes, I'm fine with the Simmons for Newcomb part. It's that some of you are trying to spin Aybar into something positive for this team that really pisses me off. You can't stand the possibility that the front office might have made a huge mistake and that of all the moves they've made since the end of the 2014 season, there are some glaring inconsistencies.
 
bravesnumberone said:
As time passes, I'm fine with the Simmons for Newcomb part. It's that some of you are trying to spin Aybar into something positive for this team that really pisses me off. You can't stand the possibility that the front office might have made a huge mistake and that of all the moves they've made since the end of the 2014 season, there are some glaring inconsistencies.
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Aybar is a good SS. According to ESPN Aybar was 10th in the majors in WAR for qualifying SS. And that's considered a down year based on his past 5 seasons. In 2014 he was 4th in the majors ahead of Simmons. That has value, especially considering that there are many teams seeking a SS right now. Braves could potentially turn that value into something that might help us beyond this season. Those are the facts.

Now, is replacing Simmons with Aybar going to help us win more games? Absolutely not barring major injury. But he does have some significant value.
 
Unless Newcomb turns into an ace, which is extremely unlikely as precious few prospects ever do, then we have **** the bed on this trade.
 
This will all depend on how Albies does bc without him in our system this trade never happens. They don't want Aybar long term that's just the way they're spinning it. To me this trade is about Newcomb and Albies. In the NL with the pitcher hitting you can't have a light hitting catcher and ss to, that's basically 3 outs in a row.
 
skillet said:
Unless Newcomb turns into an ace, which is extremely unlikely as precious few prospects ever do, then we have **** the bed on this trade.
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He needs to generate a surplus value of about 6-7 WAR in his pre-free agency years to match the expected surplus value from Simmons during the remaining years of his contract.
 
Hudson2 said:
This will all depend on how Albies does bc without him in our system this trade never happens. They don't want Aybar long term that's just the way they're spinning it. To me this trade is about Newcomb and Albies. In the NL with the pitcher hitting you can't have a light hitting catcher and ss to, that's basically 3 outs in a row.
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We should also keep on eye on Castro as a possible bridge between Aybar and Albies. Castro could also end up as a platoon partner at second.
 
Hudson2 said:
This will all depend on how Albies does bc without him in our system this trade never happens. They don't want Aybar long term that's just the way they're spinning it. To me this trade is about Newcomb and Albies. In the NL with the pitcher hitting you can't have a light hitting catcher and ss to, that's basically 3 outs in a row.
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I agree with you about Albies, but Oz could have shifted over to 2nd and formed an awesome double play combo with Simba, and we already have 700 pitching prospects in our system and assuredly will take another with our 3rd selection. If the trade had been for two high end, high ceiling position prospects, I would be fine with this trade. But I'm so sick of trading for goddamned pitchers every single time, while our offense was the laughing stock of baseball this year, and our farm system is already severely pitching heavy.
 
nsacpi said:
We should also keep on eye on Castro as a possible bridge between Aybar and Albies. Castro could also end up as a platoon partner at second.
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I agree bc i believe Aybar will be flipped to. We won't offer him a QO and this year is looking to be meaningless anyways so we might as well. Castro didn't look bad at all and they apparently really like him.
 
Just catching up on some Simmons post-mortem reading and found this article with an embedded spreadsheet that forecasts surplus value of all involved in the trade. The best part is you can edit the spreadsheet to change any of the assumptions to see how those changes impact the net result. I found the default assumptions on WAR to be tilted int he Braves favor, but it's kind of a "choose your own adventure" type of thing for those interested.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2015/11/13/9727014/andrelton-simmons-trade-braves-angels/in/9490239
 
dak said:
Just catching up on some Simmons post-mortem reading and found this article with an embedded spreadsheet that forecasts surplus value of all involved in the trade. The best part is you can edit the spreadsheet to change any of the assumptions to see how those changes impact the net result. I found the default assumptions on WAR to be tilted int he Braves favor, but it's kind of a "choose your own adventure" type of thing for those interested.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2015/11/13/9727014/andrelton-simmons-trade-braves-angels/in/9490239
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The numbers for Newcomb look optimistic to me. Not crazy. But not fully in line with the bust rate for prospects ranked about where he is. Here is a list of pitching prospects at 15-25 on BA's Top 100 list from 2000 to 2005.

Matt Riley
Josh Beckett
AJ Burnett
Brad Penney
Wilfredo Rodriguez
Chin-hui Tsao
Juan Cruz
Jerome Williams
Bobby Bradley
Chris George
Dennis Tankersley
Nick Neugebauer
John Rauch
Carlos Hernandez
Ty Howington
Adam Wainwright
Jeremy Bonderman
John Van Benschoten
Sean Burnett
Cole Hamels
Dustin McGowan
Gavin Floyd
Adam Miller
Chad Billingsley
Jeff Niemann
Jeff Francis
Jose Capellan

Some of the guys on the list have gone on to great careers. A majority have been busts. Just to compare with one from the above, Jeff Niemann had a career WAR of 6.5, half of what is being assumed in the spreadsheet for Newcomb's first six years.

And the numbers for Ellis are unrealistic for a prospect of his caliber.
 
nsacpi said:
The numbers for Newcomb look optimistic to me. Not crazy. But not fully in line with the bust rate for prospects ranked about where he is. Here is a list of pitching prospects at 15-25 on BA's Top 100 list from 2000 to 2005.

Matt Riley

Josh Beckett

AJ Burnett

Brad Penney

Wilfredo Rodriguez

Chin-hui Tsao

Juan Cruz

Jerome Williams

Bobby Bradley

Chris George

Dennis Tankersley

Nick Neugebauer

John Rauch

Carlos Hernandez

Ty Howington

Adam Wainwright

Jeremy Bonderman

John Van Benschoten

Sean Burnett

Cole Hamels

Dustin McGowan

Gavin Floyd

Adam Miller

Chad Billingsley

Jeff Niemann

Jeff Francis

Jose Capellan

Some of the guys on the list have gone on to great careers. A majority have been busts.

And the numbers for Ellis are unrealistic for a prospect of his caliber.
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I suspose this is why the Braves keep stockpiling arms. A couple have to make it, right?
 
thewupk said:
I suspose this is why the Braves keep stockpiling arms. A couple have to make it, right?
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Out of the 27 I listed, the real value is concentrated in just four. Wainwright, Beckett, Burnett and Hamels. There are some others who have been quite useful players. And a bunch of busts.

If Wisler, Newcomb or any of the others we have traded for turns out to be in the class of a Wainwright or Hamels, it will have been worth it. Otherwise not.
 
nsacpi said:
The numbers for Newcomb look optimistic to me. Not crazy.
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Agreed. I dialed Simmons up to 0.5 WAR each of the first couple years, dropped Newcomb a combined 2 WAR over the first 3 years, and dropped Ellis down to a bust by just giving him a combined 2 WAR over his first 4 years before being non-tendered. With those changes, the surplus value is a wash.
 
dak said:
Agreed. I dialed Simmons up to 0.5 WAR each of the first couple years, dropped Newcomb a combined 2 WAR over the first 3 years, and dropped Ellis down to a bust by just giving him a combined 2 WAR over his first 4 years before being non-tendered. With those changes, the surplus value is a wash.
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That's pretty much how I see it.

There is no doubt we now have a very strong group of pitching prospects. I like the ones we've drafted (Allard, Soroka, Sims and a couple other under-the-radar types) quite a bit. Among the ones we've traded for, Wisler and Newcomb are the ones I like (with Gant being the best of the sleeper candidates).
 
I think Fried and Newcomb are the two with the highest ceiling among those included in the big trades. Obviously Touki is in that group as well. I put the ceiling of all 3 of those guys ahead of Wisler's, but Wisler definitely has a chance to become a solid #2-3.
 
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