MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
I kind of wonder if this is more a Kenley preference and Snitker is just taking the bullet for it.
Snit post-game quote.
- Thread starter The Tariff King
- Start date
If the score was 6-3 that's a bit different than 6-5. We were having good at bats and hittint the ball good. Obvious to anyone watching we had the momentum swinging our way. But yet at 6-5 score still he punts.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
And that's fine if that's the case... but use at least one of our better relievers in a one run game... not Jackson freaking Stephens
I wondered that too. But then again he had Iglesias and Minter available and still went with Jackson.
It's probably illustrative to look at the win probabilities when certain moves were made instead of whatever people think they saw based on a late comeback vs a mop up pitcher...
Bottom 7
Grossman 3 run bomb: 27% win prob
Acuna walks: 29.9% win prob
Acuna once again wastes a baserunner by trying to steal: 24.7% win prob
Top 8
At this point the Braves have a 1 in 4 chance of winning this game. Snit brings in Lee to face 2 LHH. I have no problem with this move.
Lee retires Mccann: 29.7% win prob
Bottom 8
Diaz comes in and predictably shuts the Braves down. "Momentum" stopped.
Diaz retires Olson: 15.8% win prob
Top 9
The Braves have a 1 in 6 chance on paper of winning this game, but realistically much worse considering Diaz is coming out for the bottom of the 9th and will most likely completely shut the Braves offense down again.
Stephens and Tarnok then effectively ended the game.
Bottom 9
Mets understand they are 99.4% favorites to win this game, so they bring in a lower leverage arm, as they should have.
A bit of life from the Braves: 10.3% win prob
Acuna's fly caught, game over.
At no point was there a BP choice to be made when the win prob was better than 1 in 4, and worse than 1 in 6 when Stephens came in. Folks may like to talk about momentum, but Diaz shut down any momentum the Braves may have had, and he was going to shut them down in the 9th if required.
Bottom 7
Grossman 3 run bomb: 27% win prob
Acuna walks: 29.9% win prob
Acuna once again wastes a baserunner by trying to steal: 24.7% win prob
Top 8
At this point the Braves have a 1 in 4 chance of winning this game. Snit brings in Lee to face 2 LHH. I have no problem with this move.
Lee retires Mccann: 29.7% win prob
Bottom 8
Diaz comes in and predictably shuts the Braves down. "Momentum" stopped.
Diaz retires Olson: 15.8% win prob
Top 9
The Braves have a 1 in 6 chance on paper of winning this game, but realistically much worse considering Diaz is coming out for the bottom of the 9th and will most likely completely shut the Braves offense down again.
Stephens and Tarnok then effectively ended the game.
Bottom 9
Mets understand they are 99.4% favorites to win this game, so they bring in a lower leverage arm, as they should have.
A bit of life from the Braves: 10.3% win prob
Acuna's fly caught, game over.
At no point was there a BP choice to be made when the win prob was better than 1 in 4, and worse than 1 in 6 when Stephens came in. Folks may like to talk about momentum, but Diaz shut down any momentum the Braves may have had, and he was going to shut them down in the 9th if required.
Last edited:
Diaz pitching two innings would have likely made him unavailable tomorrow no? Or on a shorter leash.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Are you saying that a shift in probability from 16% to 0.6% isn’t a significant decrease?
That’s not even getting into the fact that forcing Diaz to pitch another inning helps the Braves chances the next day.
striker42
Well-known member
I'm fine limiting Jansen's innings. But Minter and Iglesias shouldn't have the same limits on them. The issue last night wasn't not using Jansen, it was not using Minter or Iglesias.
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
If I were the manager, I would have rolled with Iglesias or Minter. Minter seems to be getting some extra rest lately, so none of us have been in the clubhouse to know why that might be other than the fact he's been in 53 games and we'll probably have to ride him hard down the stretch and in the playoffs. Still, Iglesias was there.
But still, this fantasy that someone was going to square up Diaz is silly. And the idea that Showalter wouldn't have brought him back today if he went two innings last night or that he might magically struggle is equally silly. Yes, he would have thrown two innings, but it's all about the stress he deals with in those pitches. It took no stress for him to blow through Swanson, Riley, and Olson. And he wouldn't have had a single bit of trouble with Rosario, Contreras, and Harris.
The game was lost when Odorizzi threw three meat balls, when he was left in to keep sucking for an extra inning, and when Ronald decided he was going to try to beat the Mets by himself and killed the rally.
But still, this fantasy that someone was going to square up Diaz is silly. And the idea that Showalter wouldn't have brought him back today if he went two innings last night or that he might magically struggle is equally silly. Yes, he would have thrown two innings, but it's all about the stress he deals with in those pitches. It took no stress for him to blow through Swanson, Riley, and Olson. And he wouldn't have had a single bit of trouble with Rosario, Contreras, and Harris.
The game was lost when Odorizzi threw three meat balls, when he was left in to keep sucking for an extra inning, and when Ronald decided he was going to try to beat the Mets by himself and killed the rally.
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Just dumbassery that we'll have to continue to live with. I continue to be amazed at how few players on the team know how to run the bases.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Minter or Iglesias was definitely the better move being only down 1 run. And had we been down several runs, I would have run out Tarnok.
Doesn't matter we are facing the most dominant closer in the game. Only being down 1 run, a bloop and a blast wins it. Or you make him unavailable for tonights game where deGrom is on a pitch limit.
The Mets bullpen outside of Diaz is where you beat them.
Doesn't matter we are facing the most dominant closer in the game. Only being down 1 run, a bloop and a blast wins it. Or you make him unavailable for tonights game where deGrom is on a pitch limit.
The Mets bullpen outside of Diaz is where you beat them.
One point that's been completely left out of this discussion so far...
Snitker wasn't even in the dugout during the late innings - none of those moves were his call. He was thrown out in the 4th before Odorizzi was even taken out.
I'm one of the last people to ever defend the way he handles pen decisions, but *amn - y'all even want to criticize him for the ones he DIDN'T have a say in.
Just sayin'.
Snitker wasn't even in the dugout during the late innings - none of those moves were his call. He was thrown out in the 4th before Odorizzi was even taken out.
I'm one of the last people to ever defend the way he handles pen decisions, but *amn - y'all even want to criticize him for the ones he DIDN'T have a say in.
Just sayin'.
LOL
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I said it at 5 this morning
I didn’t say that at all.
What I said was that using your best BP arms when you have a 16% chance to win isn’t the obvious call many of you are claiming it is.
I’m also saying that relying on things like “momentum” is a very dinosaur way of managing a game, especially when Diaz is a momentum destroyer.
I’ll also say that somehow burning a well rested Diaz because he had to throw 12 more pitches to easily retire the bottom of the order is a pretty weak reason to burn your own high leverage guys.
In a playoff game where I want to capitalize on a 16% chance to win a game, sure. On a regular season game? It’s not such a definite yes.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Any idea how much of a % winning improvement Acuna being on 2nd vs 1st is there?
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
For the record, I wasn’t one of the ones talking about momentum. I don’t believe momentum exists in baseball.
And I would agree with you if it weren’t for the fact that winning the division is a real advantage this year and that game had a fairly significant impact on the race.
Last edited:
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
The manager is still making the decisions from the tunnel after they get ejected. This is common knowledge.