Snitker?

I think they'll probably go ahead with Snitker. I won't hate it. He's done a tremendous job, but I'd like to see them bring a few guys in from outside the organization and have a real search. That said, if it's not Snitker, I'd like it to be someone other than the Bud Black type.
 
bravesnumberone said:
I think they'll probably go ahead with Snitker. I won't hate it. He's done a tremendous job, but I'd like to see them bring a few guys in from outside the organization and have a real search. That said, if it's not Snitker, I'd like it to be someone other than the Bud Black type.
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What do we need to know about Black that makes him a bad candidate?
 
Enscheff said:
It was the Padres. I'm looking for a little more in depth analysis than that, but thanks for your contribution to the collective knowledge base.
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I mean, if a guy has managed 1 winning team in 9 tries, I think the onus is on explaining why he's good.

There may very well be reasons that he is actually a very good manager. But I'm not hiring a guy with that record just because no one can tell me why he's bad. I need some evidence going in the other direction first.

ETA: Technically he actually managed 2 winning teams in his 8 full years as manager. But one of those years, the year he won NL MOY, was actually the worst collapse in Padres history. They went on a 10-game losing streak entering September, went 12-16 in September, and lost a 6.5-game division lead. He never made the postseason there.

ETA2: He's -6 in Pythagorean wins but +15 in WAR wins. So it's tough to gauge, but I haven't seen anything that would suggest he's great.
 
smootness said:
I mean, if a guy has managed 1 winning team in 9 tries, I think the onus is on explaining why he's good.

There may very well be reasons that he is actually a very good manager. But I'm not hiring a guy with that record just because no one can tell me why he's bad. I need some evidence going in the other direction first.

ETA: Technically he actually managed 2 winning teams in his 8 full years as manager. But one of those years, the year he won NL MOY, was actually the worst collapse in Padres history. They went on a 10-game losing streak entering September, went 12-16 in September, and lost a 6.5-game division lead. He never made the postseason there.
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That's why I'm asking. I know very little about Bud Black, but when he was fired there was immediate speculation that he was a strong candidate to be the next Braves manager.

Is he a good clubhouse guy like Snitker seems to be? Is he a good tactical mind like Maddon? Or is he just an established manager that would end up being a safe hire?

For what it's worth, I would like to see Dave Martinez given serious consideration. He has served as bench coach to the best manager in the game, who is running the best team in the game about as efficiently as humanly possible. I would like to see more of that "high information" decision making utilized in Atlanta over the low information crap that results in decisions like batting Adonis Garcia in the #2 slot.
 
Enscheff said:
That's why I'm asking. I know very little about Bud Black, but when he was fired there was immediate speculation that he was a strong candidate to be the next Braves manager.

Is he a good clubhouse guy like Snitker seems to be? Is he a good tactical mind like Maddon? Or is he just an established manager that would end up being a safe hire?

For what it's worth, I would like to see Dave Martinez given serious consideration. He has served as bench coach to the best manager in the game, who is running the best team in the game about as efficiently as humanly possible. I would like to see more of that "high information" decision making utilized in Atlanta over the low information crap that results in decisions like batting Adonis Garcia in the #2 slot.
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If you're looking for someone who's not going to do weird things, Maddon is not your guy. He tinkers like crazy and is very quick to pull pitchers. He's also batted guys like John Jaso (the year he had a sub-.300 OBP) and BJ Upton at the top of his lineup.

He gets a lot of hype as some kind of advanced sabermetric guru, but he's really not. He's good for a team's clubhouse, but his moves are very old-school. He also is negative in both Pythagorean wins and WAR wins in his career. He actually rates as a truly poor manager by the advanced analytics.
 
smootness said:
If you're looking for someone who's not going to do weird things, Maddon is not your guy. He tinkers like crazy and is very quick to pull pitchers. He's also batted guys like John Jaso (the year he had a sub-.300 OBP) and BJ Upton at the top of his lineup.

He gets a lot of hype as some kind of advanced sabermetric guru, but he's really not. He's good for a team's clubhouse, but his moves are very old-school. He also is negative in both Pythagorean wins and WAR wins in his career. He actually rates as a truly poor manager by the advanced analytics.
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By the advanced analytics? I am unaware of any metrics used to rate managers.

Or are you asserting we can assign credit for teams over/under performing their expected win values to the manager? Where has that been shown to be a reproducible skill of a manager? Everything I have read attributes performances like the Royals of the last couple years and the Rangers this year to luck and/or a lock down top heavy BP that can win more close games than is normally expected.
 
Enscheff said:
By the advanced analytics? I am unaware of any metrics used to rate managers.

Or are you asserting we can assign credit for teams over/under performing their expected win values to the manager? Where has that been shown to be a reproducible skill of a manager? Everything I have read attributes performances like the Royals of the last couple years and the Rangers this year to luck and/or a lock down top heavy BP that can win more close games than is normally expected.
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I am asserting that people do this. I wasn't trying to validate it, but it's there, and it's useful information.

If it was all attributable to luck, then you wouldn't see managers consistently exceeding or falling short of their expected wins...yet they do.
 
smootness said:
I am asserting that people do this. I wasn't trying to validate it, but it's there, and it's useful information.

If it was all attributable to luck, then you wouldn't see managers consistently exceeding or falling short of their expected wins...yet they do.
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Consistently? Again, where have you seen this analysis done? Or did you do it yourself in your head?
 
Enscheff said:
That's why I'm asking. I know very little about Bud Black, but when he was fired there was immediate speculation that he was a strong candidate to be the next Braves manager.

Is he a good clubhouse guy like Snitker seems to be? Is he a good tactical mind like Maddon? Or is he just an established manager that would end up being a safe hire?

For what it's worth, I would like to see Dave Martinez given serious consideration. He has served as bench coach to the best manager in the game, who is running the best team in the game about as efficiently as humanly possible. I would like to see more of that "high information" decision making utilized in Atlanta over the low information crap that results in decisions like batting Adonis Garcia in the #2 slot.
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There was a study done a few years back that rated Bud Black among the best at bullpen management and also getting more out of relievers for the Padres than these relievers had done previously. I'd certainly agree with those that saw him as good at managing a bullpen as his track record showed that (even though many times he had very little to work with). I know Fredi couldn't do anything like that even with great bullpens. So between them there is a night and day difference IMO.
 
Enscheff said:
Consistently? Again, where have you seen this analysis done? Or did you do it yourself in your head?
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Huh? They do keep track of both Pythagorean and WAR wins over expected...and there are managers who consistently outperform or underperform expectations.
 
smootness said:
Huh? They do keep track of both Pythagorean and WAR wins over expected...and there are managers who consistently outperform or underperform expectations.
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Ok, keeping a running tally of something and performing an analysis to determine if there is a statistical correlation between two things are completely different excercises. Since you don't know the difference I'll take that as you have no idea.

As a general rule, if the article just adds things up and provides a ranking, it likely isn't doing anything with any statistical significance. If they run regression and/or check for correlation and mention an r squared value, it is probably statistically relevant.

Here's an article that shows managers don't "consistently" do anything, meaning there is little correlation. It's the best one I could find with minimal searching:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/statsp...nd-the-pythagorean-theorem/amp/?client=safari

And here's one that shows how going over/under the Pythagorean record is pretty random for those that don't understand what "R squared" means:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/17/5504652/manager-pythagorean-wins
 
Enscheff said:
Ok, keeping a running tally of something and performing an analysis to determine if there is a statistical correlation between two things are completely different excercises. Since you don't know the difference I'll take that as you have no idea.

As a general rule, if the article just adds things up and provides a ranking, it likely isn't doing anything with any statistical significance. If they run regression and/or check for correlation and mention an r squared value, it is probably statistically relevant.

Here's an article that shows managers don't "consistently" do anything, meaning there is little correlation. It's the best one I could find with minimal searching:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/statsp...nd-the-pythagorean-theorem/amp/?client=safari

And here's one that shows how going over/under the Pythagorean record is pretty random for those that don't understand what "R squared" means:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/17/5504652/manager-pythagorean-wins
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Hahaha I know what regression analysis and r-squared are, you tool. I didn't know that analysis had been done.

I never implied win expectancies were a great tool, and it looks like perhaps they are not real useful at all. It's interesting that neither of those studies looked at win expectancy according to WAR.

But the first study assumes experience is a good thing and that managers who manager for longer will manage more good teams, thus manage more teams who win 1-run games, etc. But if that's the case, why is a guy like Maddox who's been around and managed good teams so low, especially in WAR win expectancy? It's interesting to me, and neither of those articles convinced me it means nothing.

As usual, your input is a simple regurgitation of something you've read about things that you think sound intelligent like regression and r-squared with little actual thinking for yourself.
 
According to MLBTraderumors, we have already interviewed Bo Porter, TP, Eddie Perez, and Snitker for the managers job next season. Of the 4, the Braves came away impressed with TP....Braves still plan to interview a few candidates from outside the organization including Don Wakamatsu, Boston's bench coach, Bud Black. and Ron Gardenhire
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
According to MLBTraderumors, we have already interviewed Bo Porter, TP, Eddie Perez, and Snitker for the managers job next season. Of the 4, the Braves came away impressed with TP....Braves still plan to interview a few candidates from outside the organization including Don Wakamatsu, Boston's bench coach, Bud Black. and Ron Gardenhire
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god....I hope the Braves go external and for the most part clean house with the coaching staff.
 
The one guy that better not get the job is TP. I was really impressed with Snit...but I want to do our due diligence and meet with a bunch of candidates outside the organization.
 
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