nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The thread on Fredi nominated for manager of the year inspired me to do some basic math on bullpen usage the past three seasons. I generally think Fredi is a good manager but I'm going to nit-pick a bit with respect to one of his choices when it came to bullpen management.
I'm going to use data on relief pitcher appearances. If someone prefers innings pitched by relievers feel free to supplement.
By my count, Braves relievers appeared in 475 games in 2013, 470 games in 2012 and 510 games in 2011.
Assuming you have seven relief slots (which can obviously be filled by more than one player over a full season), that works out to 68 appearances per bullpen slot in 2013, 67 in 2012, and 73 in 2011.
Now obviously these are not exact because there are times the team might carry more or fewer than 7 relievers (especially when the rosters expand in September), but it gives you a basic idea.
My view of the ideal is that you want to distribute the load as evenly as possible up until fairly late in the season when you might have to ride the guys who are pitching well harder. That works out to 70 or so appearances per pen member (or slot). Obviously, there should be some common sense variances. Your long relief guys will have fewer appearances but more innings. And maybe your very best relievers a little more than the others (I'm thinking here your top 3 guys in the 70-75 game range and your lesser guys 60-65).
This all presumes that your starters make it possible. In 2011 the starters did not pitch well, especially down the stretch, and we were in a lot of extra inning games, which led to some very high appearances numbers for Kimbrel (79), Venters (85) and EOF (78). I think we all agree we should avoid that kind of usage if at all possible.
The way the game has evolved I think it is important that the manager have confidence in at least 6 of the guys out in the pen. Otherwise, you are going to have excessive usage of the ones he does have confidence in. The second point I would stress (and no manager will ever come out and put it so indelicately) is that you need someone who is the "sacrificial lamb" out there in the pen. Someone you ride hard at particular points in the season, who you don't care whether he is still pitching or not in September and October. Sacrificial lamb is the right term because his role is to ensure the more valuable arms are still healthy come September and October.
I'll close by saying that this past season Fredi chose the wrong guy to be the sacrificial lamb. Cory Gearrin pitched 30 out of our first 54 games. In other words, through the first third of the season he was on a pace to appear in 90 games. He started breaking down in June and went on the DL with shoulder tendinitis in early July. He did not return to pitch in either the majors or minors.
Gearrin is not the greatest pitcher out there. But he is a very effective groundball pitcher against right handed hitters. I would have loved to have him available to pitch to guys like Puig, Hanley Ramirez and Uribe. This is not just ex post wisdom on my part. I made the point during the weeks when Fredi was overusing him that I would hate to see him not available when the games really matter.
Who should have been the sacrificial lamb. I would say Anthony Varvaro should have been the guy. During those first 54 games when Gearrin was used 30 times, Varvaro made 21 appearances, though to be fair he was used more often in a multi-inning role. As it turned out, Varvaro stayed healthy and was left off the post-season roster.
Am I nitpicking in focusing on these two fairly obscure relief pitchers. Maybe. But I'm convinced that a manager has to have an idea in April and May of which pitchers he wants healthy and effective come September and October, and which ones he is willing to sacrifice. Many things contributed to our losing to the Dodgers. The little things really do add up and make a difference. Enough so that we should be obsessive about things like who is being overworked in April and May.
I'm going to use data on relief pitcher appearances. If someone prefers innings pitched by relievers feel free to supplement.
By my count, Braves relievers appeared in 475 games in 2013, 470 games in 2012 and 510 games in 2011.
Assuming you have seven relief slots (which can obviously be filled by more than one player over a full season), that works out to 68 appearances per bullpen slot in 2013, 67 in 2012, and 73 in 2011.
Now obviously these are not exact because there are times the team might carry more or fewer than 7 relievers (especially when the rosters expand in September), but it gives you a basic idea.
My view of the ideal is that you want to distribute the load as evenly as possible up until fairly late in the season when you might have to ride the guys who are pitching well harder. That works out to 70 or so appearances per pen member (or slot). Obviously, there should be some common sense variances. Your long relief guys will have fewer appearances but more innings. And maybe your very best relievers a little more than the others (I'm thinking here your top 3 guys in the 70-75 game range and your lesser guys 60-65).
This all presumes that your starters make it possible. In 2011 the starters did not pitch well, especially down the stretch, and we were in a lot of extra inning games, which led to some very high appearances numbers for Kimbrel (79), Venters (85) and EOF (78). I think we all agree we should avoid that kind of usage if at all possible.
The way the game has evolved I think it is important that the manager have confidence in at least 6 of the guys out in the pen. Otherwise, you are going to have excessive usage of the ones he does have confidence in. The second point I would stress (and no manager will ever come out and put it so indelicately) is that you need someone who is the "sacrificial lamb" out there in the pen. Someone you ride hard at particular points in the season, who you don't care whether he is still pitching or not in September and October. Sacrificial lamb is the right term because his role is to ensure the more valuable arms are still healthy come September and October.
I'll close by saying that this past season Fredi chose the wrong guy to be the sacrificial lamb. Cory Gearrin pitched 30 out of our first 54 games. In other words, through the first third of the season he was on a pace to appear in 90 games. He started breaking down in June and went on the DL with shoulder tendinitis in early July. He did not return to pitch in either the majors or minors.
Gearrin is not the greatest pitcher out there. But he is a very effective groundball pitcher against right handed hitters. I would have loved to have him available to pitch to guys like Puig, Hanley Ramirez and Uribe. This is not just ex post wisdom on my part. I made the point during the weeks when Fredi was overusing him that I would hate to see him not available when the games really matter.
Who should have been the sacrificial lamb. I would say Anthony Varvaro should have been the guy. During those first 54 games when Gearrin was used 30 times, Varvaro made 21 appearances, though to be fair he was used more often in a multi-inning role. As it turned out, Varvaro stayed healthy and was left off the post-season roster.
Am I nitpicking in focusing on these two fairly obscure relief pitchers. Maybe. But I'm convinced that a manager has to have an idea in April and May of which pitchers he wants healthy and effective come September and October, and which ones he is willing to sacrifice. Many things contributed to our losing to the Dodgers. The little things really do add up and make a difference. Enough so that we should be obsessive about things like who is being overworked in April and May.
