Some perspective on what Ozzy is doing

P

Preacher

Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Just wanted to add some perspective on what Ozzy is doing at AA; its ridiculous and it doesn't seem like prospect guru's are really talking about it that much, considering the performance and his age.

Albies is currently hitting .370/.440/.505 in 184 ABs.

Going back to 2005 - here are the best seasons that batters have put together in the Southern League in BA/OBP/SLG and their age when they did it.

Batting Average / 2005-2016

1. Ozzie Albies .370 (2016/19 years old)
2. Dave Sappelt .361 (2010/23 years old)
3. Angel Salome .360 (2008/22 years old)
3. Scott Van Slyke .348 (2011/25 years old)
4. Brandon Guyer .344 (2010/24 years old)
5. Tyler Kuhn .341 (2011/24 years old)
5. Moises Sierra .341 (2016/27 years old)

Ozzie's OBP of .440 would rank;

2016 #1 - next closest .419
2015 #1 - next closest .416
2014 #1 - next closest .405
2013 #1 - next closest .420
2012 #1 - next closest .416
2011 #1 - next closest .435
2010 #1 - next closest .411
2009 #2 - Ezequiel Carrera .441 OBP / 22 years old
2008 #1 - next closest .419
2007 #1 - next closest .433
2006 #1 - next closest .408
2005 #2 - Jermey Hermida .457 OBP / 21 years old

Ozzie's SLG% of .505 would rank

2016 #4 - highest .547
2015 #2 - highest .531
2014 #3 - highest .556
2013 #1 - next closest .497
2012 #4 - highest .563
2011 #8 - highest .626
2010 #3 - highest .588
2009 #3 - highest .521
2008 #9 - highest .580
2007 #4 - highest .565
2006 #3 - highest .547
2005 #7 - highest .582

Obviously Albies spent some time in AAA, so his sample size is a little bit smaller here, but we are still approaching 200 ABs and even if there's some regression, what he's done on this level AT HIS AGE; is unprecedented as a hitter. Also keep in mind that many of the other leaders on these lists are not only much older, but also play more offensive positions like OF/1B.

He's a stud.
 
The only caveat I will say is that his OBP and SLG are fueled by a 425 BABIP. Not to say what he's doing isn't impressive but it is important to keep that in mind.
 
Albies is a great prospect, but I think I would be more excited if he would have played well in AAA. Still, he will be fine.
 
I see Albies as Altuve without the 15-20 HR pop. I think it is unrealistic to expect Albies to develop the same kind of power Altuve managed to grow into.

Neither walk much and rely on an elite hit tool coupled with plus speed to reach base at a high rate. Hopefully he is the top of the lineup asset the Braves can count on until 2022 or later.
 
thewupk said:
The only caveat I will say is that his OBP and SLG are fueled by a 425 BABIP. Not to say what he's doing isn't impressive but it is important to keep that in mind.
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Sure, but he's certainly not the only guy in the last decade of AA baseball to get some luck from the BABIP gods -- and there's an element of skill in BABIP, his speed and his ability to make hard contact both make a higher than average BABIP sustainable for him.
 
Albies is an unbelievable hitter. I've thought the same thing about him. People respect him, but he should be a legit top prospect with his bat IMO.
 
gilesfan said:
Albies is a great prospect, but I think I would be more excited if he would have played well in AAA. Still, he will be fine.
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And we would be even more excited if he was playing well at the MLB level. The post was about his age relative to AA players. Nobody (or nearly nobody) plays this well in AA at 19, so it follows nobody plays this well at AAA at 19 either.
 
Preacher said:
Sure, but he's certainly not the only guy in the last decade of AA baseball to get some luck from the BABIP gods -- and there's an element of skill in BABIP, his speed and his ability to make hard contact both make a higher than average BABIP sustainable for him.
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I'd agree with that. But again it's still only like 200 PA's. He spent more time in AAA this year where his BABIP wasn't nearly as beneficial to him. Again it's something to keep in mind. Posting him having a super high OBP and SLG suggests he's a walk machine with a ton of power. That isn't the case.
 
Preacher said:
Sure, but he's certainly not the only guy in the last decade of AA baseball to get some luck from the BABIP gods -- and there's an element of skill in BABIP, his speed and his ability to make hard contact both make a higher than average BABIP sustainable for him.
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Agree with this. BABIP is not all about luck. It tells me he is hitting the ball with authority and has a lot of speed. Those things don't disappear. It certainly won't be .425 in the majors, but i suspect it will still be high because of his skill set.
 
Albies has a pretty decent walk rate based on his age. It woudln't surprise me to see it tick up a bit over the next few years. The differences between him and Altuve are that Albies probably doesn't hit for as much power or steals as many bases. But, he would provide more value at SS.
 
mfree80 said:
Agree with this. BABIP is not all about luck. It tells me he is hitting the ball with authority and has a lot of speed. Those things don't disappear. It certainly won't be .425 in the majors, but i suspect it will still be high because of his skill set.
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Just for comparisons sake, Hamilton has a .296 career BABIP. Altuve is .335. I think .330/.340 is the highest you could project considering the better defense/fields in the major leagues. Still, that gives him a chance at a .300 BA.
 
gilesfan said:
Just for comparisons sake, Hamilton has a .296 career BABIP. Altuve is .335. I think .330/.340 is the highest you could project considering the better defense/fields in the major leagues. Still, that gives him a chance at a .300 BA.
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I don't have sources, but I've always heard scouts throw around .285-.295 avg was a pretty likely scenario for a hitter like him. I'd LOVE that.
 
thewupk said:
Yeah. A line of ~290/350/40 would be fantastic for a middle infielder. Take that all day.
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It would be fine, but everyone should be disappointed if that's what Albies becomes. He has the tools to be a. .800 OPS guy that is in the discussion for batting titles (meaning a few seasons with BAs of .320+).
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I don't have sources, but I've always heard scouts throw around .285-.295 avg was a pretty likely scenario for a hitter like him. I'd LOVE that.
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Yup totally agree, although I could see a higher BA...

You get that with the bat and potentially + defense at 2B? That's very valuable.
 
Enscheff said:
It would be fine, but everyone should be disappointed if that's what Albies becomes. He has the tools to be a. .800 OPS guy that is in the discussion for batting titles (meaning a few seasons with BAs of .320+).
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I mean I could see that being his ceiling. But I for one won't be disappointment in a player if he's merely good and not great despite the given hype.
 
Enscheff said:
It would be fine, but everyone should be disappointed if that's what Albies becomes. He has the tools to be a. .800 OPS guy that is in the discussion for batting titles (meaning a few seasons with BAs of .320+).
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People get disappointed because they expect every prospect to end up in the top 10% or higher of his peer group in terms of development. Would you be disappointed if Oz ended up being a Furcal? a Betemit?
 
I don't think he will develop the power like Altuve either but if I remember correctly, the consensus was that Altuve wouldn't develop power like he has, either. Doesn't make it any more realistic for Albies, but never say never I guess
 
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