Some Red State/Blue State Indicia
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
acesfull86
Well-known member
Once their school board phases out the word “chief” and the healing can finally begin, I’m sure the SF population will rebound.
msstate7
Well-known member
The problem is they'll move to a red state and vote the same way
chop2chip
Well-known member
I imagine much of this is the corporate exodus. Tesla, Apple, Facebook, etc. all built huge campuses in Texas and North Carolina. Matt Taibbi had an amazing article on this last week.
sturg33
I
Corporations leaving is a tell, too
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/08/2020-census-shrinking-counties-voted-trump.html
Given what we already knew about Trump’s base of support, it seemed likely that most of these emptying counties voted Republican in the last election. But how many, exactly? Mark Muro of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings ran the numbers for me.* He found that, in the 1,636 counties that shrank during the 2010s, the former president won a majority of votes in 90 percent of them. (Muro’s team had to exclude Alaska from its numbers because of a technical glitch.) If a corner of America is depopulating, it is almost certainly part of Trump country.
This is not to say that Trump country on the whole is in decline. The former president only received about 19 percent of his 74 million votes from counties with shrinking populations, according to Muro and his team’s analysis. Overall, the counties where he won added 7.8 million people during the previous decade. But Biden counties nearly doubled that total, expanding by 14.9 million individuals. Blue America is driving America’s population growth.
Given what we already knew about Trump’s base of support, it seemed likely that most of these emptying counties voted Republican in the last election. But how many, exactly? Mark Muro of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings ran the numbers for me.* He found that, in the 1,636 counties that shrank during the 2010s, the former president won a majority of votes in 90 percent of them. (Muro’s team had to exclude Alaska from its numbers because of a technical glitch.) If a corner of America is depopulating, it is almost certainly part of Trump country.
This is not to say that Trump country on the whole is in decline. The former president only received about 19 percent of his 74 million votes from counties with shrinking populations, according to Muro and his team’s analysis. Overall, the counties where he won added 7.8 million people during the previous decade. But Biden counties nearly doubled that total, expanding by 14.9 million individuals. Blue America is driving America’s population growth.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The breakdown between blue and red within Texas is especially interesting. Georgia too.
To look at presidential vote margins in a couple random counties.
Gwinnett: +60K for GOP in 2000, +79K for GOP in 2004, +29K for GOP in 2008, +27K for GOP in 2012, +20K for Dems in 2016, +85K for Dems in 2020
That's a killer trend in a very fast growing county. Maybe it won't be so bad when very poorly chosen one is not on the ticket.
Bexar:+30K for GOP in 2000, +50K for GOP in 2004, +29K for Dems in 2008, +23K for Dems in 2012, +79K for Dems in 2016, +140K for Dems in 2020
Counties like Gwinnett and Bexar are where the population growth (what remains of it in this country) is happening. I'm sure there is a very poorly chosen one effect that exaggerates the trends against the GOP in the past two elections.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Reflection is always a good thing. Data and analysis even better.
San Francisco population according to census data: 1980 679K, 1990 724K, 2000 777K, 2010 804K, 2020 874K. This growth has occurred in spite of an extremely restrictive building permitting process. It wasn't trying to grow like sunbelt cities. In fact its policies throughout this period can be characterized as anti-growth.
The last two years something happened. It is pretty obvious what. A pandemic. Plus the widespread adoption of work from home practices. Especially widespread in the tech industry. Especially widespread in Silicon Valley and the rest of Northern California. Why live in an expensive area close to the office if you no longer have to go there.
San Francisco has had a dysfunctional school board and city council for a very long time. For decades. It has had a big homeless population for decades. A big population of teenage runaways for decades. Insanely restrictive permitting processes for new housing for decades. And it's population grew throughout that time because of its charms and the growth spawned by Silicon Valley. So it will have to figure out how to reinvent itself after the pandemic and widespread adoption of working from home practices. Perhaps it will conclude that a smaller population works better for it.
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chop2chip
Well-known member
Yes. A far more important one, IMO.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/cal...historic-97point5-billion-budget-surplus.html
I think this is a tell too. Tax revenues have been very strong. Obviously the reliance on tax revenues from capital gains (and in particular IPOs) will bite somewhere down the line. But a budget surplus of almost $100 billion is something every other state would kill for.
I think this is a tell too. Tax revenues have been very strong. Obviously the reliance on tax revenues from capital gains (and in particular IPOs) will bite somewhere down the line. But a budget surplus of almost $100 billion is something every other state would kill for.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
In a strange way California on the one hand and Texas and Florida on the other should be happy they have each other. California (especially Northern California) is ambivalent about additional population growth. Florida and Texas welcome it and make policy to attract it. The people who choose to remain in California are happy to get richer while their neighbors move out. NIMBYism is stronger there than anywhere else. Those who have it made are not too anxious to share the spoils. It is not an attractive mindset (there are towns in Marin County that tear down highway signs so outsiders won't be able to find them). But it is what it is.
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