He’s getting good results off a sometimes 90 Mph fastball and there is a good chance that’s smoke and mirrors.
My guess is the period you carved out will be about his best stretch of the season and his era will be closer to 4.5 than his current 4.0.
I have no Interest in paying him 12 m next year but no helping that now, probably.
He's throwing the fastball much less and relying more on his offspeed pitches and location. He's not just getting by with it either. He's made some good hitting teams look foolish.
And he's outpitched his FIP by over a half a run over his career. No reason to expect that to change anytime soon. From a stats standpoint, he aligns with career averages except for walks.
He's an asset at this time as a middle of the rotation pitcher. Currently tied for the team lead in quality starts with 7. If we decided to trade him right now, teams would easily take him and his contract. On the trade market there isn't exactly an overbundance of quality pitchers that are as durable as he is. It would be dumb for us to trade him during a playoff race. Our chances of replacing his production are slim. I'm all for trading him in the offseason and finding a veteran option on a shorter deal.