Spring Training '17

nsacpi said:
I'm just curious
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I understand that but guys like stras and Jose should be grouped in that because they made it to the bigs then shortly there after went down. I would prefer to not have a guy with elbow issues but there is proof that pitchers can come back and have effective careers tells me that it is not the end all he all. I really don't care when it happened personally. Btw, I am not meaning to sound like an ass. Just stating my opinion.
 
thewupk said:
It's questioned because of is age relative to his competition along with his injury past. He has talent but those are big deals to many people. It's very valid imo. He's either going to overcome it or not. If he does then his natural talent will vault him to up the lists. And people pile on thethe because he has a track record of doing this with many prospects.
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I know thethe does, but it doesn't make it right every time. I also think your right that his age and history do play into his ranking. still would rather have him than a lot of guys ranked higher. So I guess I would call him under rated then. Which is my point. I don't think thethe was wrong in suggesting it.
 
thewupk said:
No but surgery that early in a players career doesn't bode well for the future.
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I am going to speak ignorantly here but I would think the majority of tjs have happened in the last four years. So that data is still being compiled. Plus I have a feeling the surgery has advanced a little since it's inaugural run. Again I haven't pulled wiki numbers. But I am betting I am right.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I know thethe does, but it doesn't make it right every time. I also think your right that his age and history do play into his ranking. still would rather have him than a lot of guys ranked higher. So I guess I would call him under rated then. Which is my point. I don't think thethe was wrong in suggesting it.
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I wouldn't necessarily call him underrated. Most people see that he has tremendous upside but he does have big flags that keep him from being ranked high or at all. That's normal.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I am going to speak ignorantly here but I would think the majority of tjs have happened in the last four years. So that data is still being compiled. Plus I have a feeling the surgery has advanced a little since it's inaugural run. Again I haven't pulled wiki numbers. But I am betting I am right.
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I guess time will tell on that. I'm also willing to bet the stressing of velocity and the TJS soon after is not good for long term benefits of a pitcher. It will become a viscous cycle.
 
I don't really care if he's underrated or not. He clearly has the potential to be really good, and the risk just means we need to try to get him to the majors as quickly as we can to use him for as long as he's got.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I understand that but guys like stras and Jose should be grouped in that because they made it to the bigs then shortly there after went down. I would prefer to not have a guy with elbow issues but there is proof that pitchers can come back and have effective careers tells me that it is not the end all he all. I really don't care when it happened personally. Btw, I am not meaning to sound like an ass. Just stating my opinion.
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Most pitchers can come back from one TJ. Most pitchers can not come back from a 2nd TJ. The biggest predictor of a future TJ is a prior TJ.

If you know a pitcher only has 1 TJ recovery in his career, I think it is perfectly logical not to acquire guys that have already used up their 1 TJ.

Not exactly something that requires any analysis to understand. All you need is the ability to arrive at logical conclusions when presented a few facts. But hey, this is a board where when someone was told, "Asset Type A is more risky and less valuable than Asset Type B", his conclusion was, "then it's a good thing we stocked up on Asset Type B!!", so who knows what kind of "logic" some folks apply to the facts they are given.
 
Enscheff said:
Most pitchers can come back from one TJ. Most pitchers can not come back from a 2nd TJ. The biggest predictor of a future TJ is a prior TJ.

If you know a pitcher only has 1 TJ recovery in his career, I think it is perfectly logical not to acquire guys that have already used up their 1 TJ.

Not exactly something that requires any analysis to understand. All you need is the ability to arrive at logical conclusions when presented a few facts. But hey, this is a board where when someone was told, "Asset Type A is more risky and less valuable than Asset Type B", his conclusion was, "then it's a good thing we stocked up on Asset Type B!!", so who knows what kind of "logic" some folks apply to the facts they are given.
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I don't think there is enough statistical data to say anything about TJS definitively.. I could easily say that it is better to get a guy who gets his TJS out of the way earlier in his career vs a guy who makes it to the majors and then goes down while you have service time accumulating. There is not enough evidence that one TJS leads to another TJS at some point. It doesn't take any analytical giant to say 'recovery time while not accruing service time is better than going on the 40 man roster and losing 2 years of service time due to TJS'

in fact the Braves had the luxury of letting Fried fully recover vs rushing him back because they needed him being a part of the team. Sorry, I don't see your point here.
 
be kind of bummed if both JoRam and Roe suck this spring and don't make the team. I was hoping one of them would be good until Juneish and net something back.
 
Enscheff said:
Most pitchers can come back from one TJ. Most pitchers can not come back from a 2nd TJ. The biggest predictor of a future TJ is a prior TJ.

If you know a pitcher only has 1 TJ recovery in his career, I think it is perfectly logical not to acquire guys that have already used up their 1 TJ.

Not exactly something that requires any analysis to understand. All you need is the ability to arrive at logical conclusions when presented a few facts. But hey, this is a board where when someone was told, "Asset Type A is more risky and less valuable than Asset Type B", his conclusion was, "then it's a good thing we stocked up on Asset Type B!!", so who knows what kind of "logic" some folks apply to the facts they are given.
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You're oversimplifying the issue here. While you're right, a player who has had one TJS is more likely to have another TJS than a player who hasn't had one, the rate of repeat surgeries is still only 10% (according to this article). If the Braves found that teams following your logic regarding TJS were discounting their TJS pitchers disproportionately to that 10% rate in trades, it would actually make sense to take advantage of that market inefficiency. There are certainly criticisms you can make about how they determine what would be a "disproportionate" discount, but I don't think it's as cut and dried as you're making it out to be.
 
thewupk said:
No but surgery that early in a players career doesn't bode well for the future.
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But the consideration isn't really the prospects likelihood of pitching injury free to his mid 30s. The analysis is the likelihood of his pitching well through arbitration years, plus a reasonable extension, which a tj veteran might be more willing to do.

I'm not sure the braves should care whether Fried might have second tj at 31.

That's where your stats might need refining. Seems like an area where a broad stat might be of less use than a narrow one.
 
I'd rather have a player like Fried that is young and cheap having TJ then paying for a high price ace that hasn't and then a year into the deal him have to have it.
 
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