Spring Training 2015

If Jace DOES bat #1 in front of Young and still manages a .350+ OBP, Young might break the sac record.
 
Dalyn said:
If Jace DOES bat #1 in front of Young and still manages a .350+ OBP, Young might break the sac record.
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I'd prefer to give Jace a shot at leading off because he takes so many close pitches, that should lead to more walks batting first. But batting second in front of you know who might make for a lot of called third strikes instead. However, he should also see more pitches to hit batting second than first. Plus I just don't think much of Young leading off given his track record doing so. So I am ready and willing to try anyone that could do better.
 
Braves1976 said:
I agree, Russell track record speaks for itself. It seems dak has been reading Bowman too much lately. Every ST we have these overreactions from Bowman and co. over ST performances.

If we went by ST performance instead of track record on Varvaro the previous two ST's then we'd DFA'd him two years ago. That is just one example and a good one since Varvaro not only pitched badly in ST for us but also had velocity issues.

That said, I am fine with trading Russell at some point but I wouldn't just give him away nor pay him money to go away.
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We are definitely on the same page that Spring Training performance should be used cautiously. It means more than nothing though. I think there is a legitimate chance he is released. I don't believe he has any trade value given his contract. He is competing to be the long man out of the bullpen and slated to make $2,425,000. His Steamer projections for ERA and FIP are 3.96 and 4.14, respectively. I think the decision comes down to how the club evaluates Cody Martin in a long relief role, and how the overall health and effectiveness looks on Minor and Folty over the next week. Releasing Russell and using Martin as the long man saves $1.3m.
 
BTW, I know Kurcz hasn't looked great this ST but I like his potential. He has good stuff and some pitches to be at least what we gave up for him (Varvaro) down the road.
 
Braves1976 said:
I'd prefer to give Jace a shot at leading off because he takes so many close pitches, that should lead to more walks batting first. But batting second in front of you know who might make for a lot of called third strikes instead. However, he should also see more pitches to hit batting second than first. Plus I just don't think much of Young leading off given his track record doing so. So I am ready and willing to try anyone that could do better.
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If Young is at the top, I would have him batting #2 behind Jace, but I'd rather not have him at the top.
 
dak said:
We are definitely on the same page that Spring Training performance should be used cautiously. It means more than nothing though. I think there is a legitimate chance he is released. I don't believe he has any trade value given his contract. He is competing to be the long man out of the bullpen and slated to make $2,425,000. His Steamer projections for ERA and FIP are 3.96 and 4.14, respectively. I think the decision comes down to how the club evaluates Cody Martin in a long relief role, and how the overall health and effectiveness looks on Minor and Folty over the next week. Releasing Russell and using Martin as the long man saves $1.3m.
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If Russell doesn't win a spot in the rotation, I think he will be our top lefty in the pen.
 
dak said:
We are definitely on the same page that Spring Training performance should be used cautiously. It means more than nothing though. I think there is a legitimate chance he is released. I don't believe he has any trade value given his contract. He is competing to be the long man out of the bullpen and slated to make $2,425,000. His Steamer projections for ERA and FIP are 3.96 and 4.14, respectively. I think the decision comes down to how the club evaluates Cody Martin in a long relief role, and how the overall health and effectiveness looks on Minor and Folty over the next week. Releasing Russell and using Martin as the long man saves $1.3m.
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It can mean more than nothing but not always, it depends on the situation. Bumgarner is 0-3 with a crazy high ERA, etc., for the Giants this ST. Does that mean anything? Regarding Steamer, what did they project for Russell last year when he put up a 2.97 ERA (or the previous three years for that matter)? Heavy steps how you use Steamer projections is my point. Russell has enough of a track record that unless there is some kind of health issue I wouldn't worry about him. Further, I don't think his contract is so high to completely kill his trade value either. Though I doubt this is the best time to try to trade him. If we were going to trade him before the season we should've before ST. Now it makes sense to wait till someone comes calling with a good offer IMO.
 
Braves1976 said:
It can mean more than nothing but not always, it depends on the situation. Bumgarner is 0-3 with a crazy high ERA, etc., for the Giants this ST. Does that mean anything? Regarding Steamer, what did they project for Russell last year when he put up a 2.97 ERA (or the previous three years for that matter)? Heavy steps how you use Steamer projections is my point. Russell has enough of a track record that unless there is some kind of health issue I wouldn't worry about him. Further, I don't think his contract is so high to completely kill his trade value either. Though I doubt this is the best time to try to trade him. If we were going to trade him before the season we should've before ST. Now it makes sense to wait till someone comes calling with a good offer IMO.
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Russell definitely has trade value. He's one I would shop at the deadline along with Minor if both have a decent first half.
 
Braves1976 said:
Agreed.
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Would also focus on utilizing Johnson almost exclusively against lefties and play off his success in that department (almost a guarantee if used correctly) and group him with Minor at the deadline. Lots of value in a young lefty starter and someone who can stand at third base and knock the **** out of lefties.
 
Dalyn said:
Would also focus on utilizing Johnson almost exclusively against lefties and play off his success in that department (almost a guarantee if used correctly) and group him with Minor at the deadline. Lots of value in a young lefty starter and someone who can stand at third base and knock the **** out of lefties.
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I have been suggesting using CJ almost exclusively against lefties myself and if we sign Olivera it would be crazy not to do so, IMO. But it is starting to sound less and less likely we'll end up with Olivera. If so, I think we'll see CJ starting a lot vs righties too at least to start the season. Whatever the case, I hope CJ can get off to a good start where we can trade him.
 
Braves1976 said:
I have been suggesting using CJ almost exclusively against lefties myself and if we sign Olivera it would be crazy not to do so, IMO. But it is starting to sound less and less likely we'll end up with Olivera. If so, I think we'll see CJ starting a lot vs righties too at least to start the season. Whatever the case, I hope CJ can get off to a good start where we can trade him.
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Yeah. Agreed. I like Johnson a lot, despite his almost complete failure last year (he was a monster vs LHP, so not a complete failure), but he has no future with this team. If he regains any trade value, I would unload him.
 
BTW, am I the only one concerned about how our pitchers numbers are going to look if we go mostly with a Markakis-EYJ-Gomes outfield? Talk about no range and not even a true CFer either. We have too many fly ball pitchers to go with such an outfield IMO. Gomes should only start vs lefties and a select few righties (such as those he's had prior success) and should be replaced for defense regularly when we have leads in games.
 
Braves1976 said:
BTW, am I the only one concerned about how our pitchers numbers are going to look if we go mostly with a Markakis-EYJ-Gomes outfield? Talk about no range and not even a true CFer either. We have too many fly ball pitchers to go with such an outfield IMO. Gomes should only start vs lefties and a select few righties (such as those he's had prior success) and should be replaced for defense regularly when we have leads in games.
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Wouldn't surprise me if we ended up with terrible pitching and a good offense.
 
Dalyn said:
Russell definitely has trade value. He's one I would shop at the deadline along with Minor if both have a decent first half.
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Respectfully guys, I don't think its likely we could trade Russell for anything of value at this point. I also don't think the Braves or the league view him as an effective LH specialist.

Here's Russell's slash line against LHH: 275 / 351 / 455 in 2014; 235 / 280 / 410 for his career.

For sake of comparison, here's Outman: 167 / 269 / 339 in 2014; 183 / 254 / 283 for his career.

Outman was DFA'd and passed through waivers twice last year.
 
dak said:
Respectfully guys, I don't think its likely we could trade Russell for anything of value at this point. I also don't think the Braves or the league view him as an effective LH specialist.

Here's Russell's slash line against LHH: 275 / 351 / 455 in 2015; 235 / 280 / 410 for his career.

For sake of comparison, here's Outman: 167 / 269 / 339 in 2015; 183 / 254 / 283 for his career.

Outman was DFA'd and passed through waivers twice last year.
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I didn't say lefty specialist (even though his career numbers are very good against them), and Russell is a much better overall pitcher than Outman. It isn't even all that close. Outman is a true lefty specialist.
 
dak said:
Respectfully guys, I don't think its likely we could trade Russell for anything of value at this point. I also don't think the Braves or the league view him as an effective LH specialist.

Here's Russell's slash line against LHH: 275 / 351 / 455 in 2015; 235 / 280 / 410 for his career.

For sake of comparison, here's Outman: 167 / 269 / 339 in 2015; 183 / 254 / 283 for his career.

Outman was DFA'd and passed through waivers twice last year.
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Outman also has been pretty terrible vs righties (RHH have an .851 OPS against him for his career) unlike Russell who did great against them last year. So Outman is a true lefty specialist you bring in for one out vs a tough lefty to get out of a jam. Russell is the type of lefty that has had success vs them for his career but not so much last year, though I'd say he made up for that pretty good doing so well against righties last year. Russell ability to get out both makes him someone that can pitch a full inning or two without a concern about facing righties. Further, he could have a great season if he can continue what he did last year vs righties while getting back to his career norm vs lefties.
 
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