Spring Training 2015

JohnAdcox said:
If Peterson and Smith both play like they did this spring (I know, I know) and Peraza has the AAA season most of us expect, you could very possibly get by with just LF, and concentrate on the pen and maybe an ace. I’m not even certain the latter is strictly necessary.

Please note that I am not even going to try to could the number of Ifs in that paragraph.
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The interesting thing will be how fast Albies comes along because that will give the organization flexibility to trade someone at the major league level. We are not far away. While the minor systems doesn't have "studs" ther eare a lot of options and with prospects I would almost rather that since so many fail.
 
thethe said:
Simmons/Freeman by themselves will be good for 25-30 homeruns a year.
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Really? Simmons has a career high of 17 and hit 7 all of last year. Freeman has a career high of 23 and hit 18 last year.

I think 10-15 for Simmons and 20-25 for Freeman is more accurate.

Apparently, you meant Simmons/Freeman combined will be good for 25-30. ok.
 
thethe said:
Simmons/Freeman by themselves will be good for 25-30 homeruns a year.
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Was a joke... but let's play.

Peterson - 1

Peraza - 1

Simmons - 8

Freeman - 22

Markakis - 9

Bethancourt - 7

BJ - 10

So that's 58 with one spots left... Since we're unwilling/unable to spend money on any offense, you might get 70 out of that team.
 
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sturg33 said:
Was a joke... but let's play.

Peterson - 1
Peraza - 1
Simmons - 8
Freeman - 22
Markakis - 9
Bethancourt - 7
BJ - 10

So that's 58 with one spots left... Since we're unwilling/unable to spend money on any offense, you might get 70 out of that team.
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IF Ruiz works out he projects to a 15-20 HR guy. I think CB could be a 15HR guy. But other than that I think you're on target with the guys. I'm ok with hitting the least home runs in the game as long as guys are getting on base and having tough AB's.
 
JohnAdcox said:
If Peterson and Smith both play like they did this spring (I know, I know) and Peraza has the AAA season most of us expect, you could very possibly get by with just LF, and concentrate on the pen and maybe an ace. I’m not even certain the latter is strictly necessary.

Please note that I am not even going to try to could the number of Ifs in that paragraph.
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I know I am an optimist. I really prefer it that way.

I really like this way of thinking as opposed to the kind of "Sky is Falling" talk we have been hearing for the past few months.
 
mfree80 said:
I know I am an optimist. I really prefer it that way.

I really like this way of thinking as opposed to the kind of "Sky is Falling" talk we have been hearing for the past few months.
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I'd say that I try to be realistic but hopeful. But even with me predicting around 76 wins this year, I cannot give up on '16 because a lot can happen between now and then. Plus it was hard enough for me to accept what has gone on this off-season and all the spin about it. I don't want to go through anything like this again, esp. not for the next two years or more. So I just have to hope Peterson continues to impress, Peraza and Smith both work out, and whatever else needed to win again in 2016 fall into place.
 
gilesfan said:
Im sorry, but I don't think you could be more wrong on the Rays. (managers don't work miracles either). Obviously health is a concern for them, but I believe all those guys are projected back at worst in the first part of the season. I also think Brad Boxberger is their closer, not Grant Balfour.

If the Rays get 115 ish starts from Cobb, Archer, Odorizzi, Smyly, Moore, they will have one of the top staffs int he American League.

As for position players (remember the Rays probably have the best defense in baseball; maybe by a longshot:

C- Rivera>Bethancourt
1B- Freeman>Loney
2B- Franklin/Forsyth ~Peterson/Callaspo
SS- Cabrera < Simmons
3B- Longoria > Johnson
LF- Jennings> Gomes/KJ (how could you possibly call these guys even?)
CF- Kiermaier>EY/Upton (how could you possibly calls these guys even?)
RF- Souza < Markakis (bc of bad spring. But, I think Souza could be a breakout player this year and one of only 3 players I think that BP projects as a 20/20 man)

The Rays also have a pretty deep bench/DH with Forsythe, Dejesus, Guyer, Jaso

Now, if Cobb and Smyly miss 2/3 months, that could really change things.

I believe last year the Rays had the worst cluster luck in the majors.
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Rivera's had a full season worth of ABs at the MLB level, and has hit .228/.279/.328/.637 with 15 HRs. I can imagine he's going to provide more pop than Bethancourt but I have trouble imagining he'll wind up being substantially better, and if Bethancourt does struggle Pierzynski offers more offense than that.

For all the promise Jennings had he's yet to deliver very much, and it's tough to cry sample size - he's now had almost 1,800 ABs at the MLB level and sports a career line of .248/.327/.401/.728. His SB numbers have declined, and he's never hit more than 14 HRs in a season. Gomes has put up a .244/.335/.442/.777 line overall. You think it's really asking that much to believe that platooning him couldn't offer at least similar numbers to Jennings? Remember, his career year so far has been .259/.356/.449/.805 (in 63 games when he was first called up and he's trended downward ever since).

I do think Kiermaier has the potential to outproduce our CFs (but he has to deliver) and do agree that Souza has the kind of upside you're talking about, but we're talking about inexperienced players that could easily go either way.

They'll unload DeJesus the minute they get the chance, and I'm not sure we shouldn't go get him to play CF instead of EY.

Moore isn't expected back until June (and will take time to get back into the swing of things even then). Smyly was great after they got him, but that was after integrating a new pitch - why not give Miller the same benefit of the doubt if you're going on second half results or small sample sizes?

Career High IP

Archer - 194.2
Odorizzi - 168
Cobb - 166.1
Smyly - 153

I don't think it's out of the question to imagine that given a healthy return from Minor that we couldn't get similar results out of the top 4 spots in our rotation that they hope to IF they can keep everyone healthy while pushing them past their career-highs in IP as well.

I'm with everyone else who doesn't expect big things from this year's team - I just don't think we're quite as bad as some people hope. If lots of things don't go right for them, Philadelphia, Colorado, Texas, Tampa, San Francisco, Houston, Minnesota, and Arizona could all be worse.
 
Fredi is wondering why y'all are so worried about offense and scoring runs? You know....when you have good pitching, you don't need hitting but when you have hitting and no pitching, you need more hitting. It's not rocket science. You get a guy on here and there, bunt em over a base or two, and score here and there on a wild pitch, balk, whatever you can get, not every pitch a pitcher throws is a strike. Sometimes you don't score and don't win, in which in that case, you tip your cap and look forward to going out there tomorrow and seeing what they got.
 
clvclv said:
Rivera's had a full season worth of ABs at the MLB level, and has hit .228/.279/.328/.637 with 15 HRs. I can imagine he's going to provide more pop than Bethancourt but I have trouble imagining he'll wind up being substantially better, and if Bethancourt does struggle Pierzynski offers more offense than that.

For all the promise Jennings had he's yet to deliver very much, and it's tough to cry sample size - he's now had almost 1,800 ABs at the MLB level and sports a career line of .248/.327/.401/.728. His SB numbers have declined, and he's never hit more than 14 HRs in a season. Gomes has put up a .244/.335/.442/.777 line overall. You think it's really asking that much to believe that platooning him couldn't offer at least similar numbers to Jennings? Remember, his career year so far has been .259/.356/.449/.805 (in 63 games when he was first called up and he's trended downward ever since).

I do think Kiermaier has the potential to outproduce our CFs (but he has to deliver) and do agree that Souza has the kind of upside you're talking about, but we're talking about inexperienced players that could easily go either way.

They'll unload DeJesus the minute they get the chance, and I'm not sure we shouldn't go get him to play CF instead of EY.

Moore isn't expected back until June (and will take time to get back into the swing of things even then). Smyly was great after they got him, but that was after integrating a new pitch - why not give Miller the same benefit of the doubt if you're going on second half results or small sample sizes?

Career High IP

Archer - 194.2
Odorizzi - 168
Cobb - 166.1
Smyly - 153

I don't think it's out of the question to imagine that given a healthy return from Minor that we couldn't get similar results out of the top 4 spots in our rotation that they hope to IF they can keep everyone healthy while pushing them past their career-highs in IP as well.

I'm with everyone else who doesn't expect big things from this year's team - I just don't think we're quite as bad as some people hope. If lots of things don't go right for them, Philadelphia, Colorado, Texas, Tampa, San Francisco, Houston, Minnesota, and Arizona could all be worse.
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Rivera is a much better defensive catcher than Pier and probably slightly better than Bethancourt. He's also played most of his games in SD and Sea so will he's not a good hitter, he may not be embarrassing bad either.

Jennings is another good defensive player. He's about a 3-3.5 win player. I don't think Gomes/KJ put up a 3 win season.

Kiermaier will be better than our center fielders without hitting a lick as he's a borderline gold glove center fielder.

Smyyly has a career ERA of 3.26 with an FIP of 3.45 and xFIP of 3.65 in the AL playing in front of an awful Tigers defense. Miller has a career 3.33 ERA with a 4.03 FIP and 4.08 xFIP in the National League.

BP projects the Rays to score 694 runs and give up 638. It projects the Braves to score 577 and give up 654. Offensively, they might be close to equal, though I would give the Rays the edge because they don't have as many black holes in the lineup as we do. But, they are far better defensively. And their pitching staff is deep.

The teams you list outside of SF and TB have a good chance of being worse than us.
 
sturg33 said:
No we don't. With the pay increases to Freeman, Teheran, and Simmons - not to mention all the arb guys... they basically wash the money coming off the books.
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Extra money coming in from tv deal. Jim Johnson, Gomes, Uggla, KJ, Pierzirski (sp), Wandy, and others I'm sure in missing. That's at least 25 million in freed up money next yr.

So yes, indeed, we have enough money to make some moves if we want to.
 
gilesfan said:
We have some future pieces, but I don't see competitiveness in 2015 or 2016.....(maybe 2017 with some significant changes)

Realistically, we have 2 pieces that we know are long term cornerstone players for the future. Freeman and Simmons. (I still take Simmons even with his offensive issues)

That leaves 6 other players. There are no Heyward/Freeman level prospects in the upper levels right now, but there are some guys that project to be solid contributors. I think Jose Peraza is a step below that Heyward/Freeman level, but is still likely a long term cornerstone player. Not sure how much we get from him in 2016, but maybe we do get above average production from him in 2017/back half of 16.

So that leaves 5 (ignoring good, but not great prospects like Smith, Ruiz, etc. as well as guys in A ball that it is really too early to tell or to project for any success in the next 2 years)

C- This spot is a huge question mark. Its probably his job for the next 2 years, but its questionable if he's a starting catcher on a contending team.

3B- Jace Peterson has looked good in the spring. Still questions about whether he's a major league regular and if so, if hes a starter on a playoff caliber team.

LF/CF/RF- I include RF because we certainly need an upgrade there, but obviously we are just with Markakis. He is likely the RF for the next 2-3 years at least. That is one position where we are hampered on the ability to upgrade. Left field and center field are clearly positions we need to upgrade.

If you are going to tell me we have a chance to compete in 2016, we are going to have to have a big free agent signing and the majority of our high minor/major league prospects are going to have to be productive players (Peraza/Bethancourt/Peterson)

Right now, we likely have 2 above average position players.
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Despite your disdain for Markakis, he should be a positive contributor, at least offensively for the foreseeable future. And again, you don't need stars at every position. We find 2-3 more players who are average-above average at their position, and this team will be competitive.
 
Carp said:
Extra money coming in from tv deal. Jim Johnson, Gomes, Uggla, KJ, Pierzirski (sp), Wandy, and others I'm sure in missing. That's at least 25 million in freed up money next yr.

So yes, indeed, we have enough money to make some moves if we want to.
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No without a budget increase
 
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