Spring Training Thread

The last time Arcia played SS with any regularity was 2020, and he was roughly average defensively. To be honest, his 2022 season was nearly identical in value to both his offensive and defensive output. If he can manage that production over 140-150 games at SS, that would make him a 1.5 - 2 win player. Do we really expect Grissom/Shewmake to be better than that?

As much I would rather give the young guys a shot, Arcia is probably the better choice
I would just rather have a better reserve player than Adrianza.
 
striker42 said:
There's a very, very real chance he's replacement level this year. His defense has been his only real value in his career and that has steadily eroded to the point he's been below average the past two years. He's never been much of a hitter and still isn't.

He's bad.
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I don't think you've looked at his stats at all. He's never been known as a defensive wiz. Always more of an average defensive player. And while he's had some pretty awful offensive seasons, he's also had 3 seasons of being roughly a league average hitter, including his most recent season.

He likely won't wow anyone, but there's a better than decent shot he's a 1.5 - 2 Win SS this year.
 
So…does he have an injury or does he not? They were “worried” about a potential injury a couple weeks ago so they decide to option him now? Doesn’t make any sense.
 
So let me get this straight. A guy who has 2 war over like 6 seasons is the guy everyone thinks will get 1.5 -2 wins in just one season... Is this Camargo all over again?!?!?

He is by definition a zero win player. in fact I just googled WAR and they had a pic of Arcia as a starting point to being average..
 
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bravesfanMatt said:
So let me get this straight. A guy who has 2 war over like 6 seasons is the guy everyone thinks will get 1.5 -2 wins in just one season... Is this Camargo all over again?!?!?

He is by definition a zero win player. in fact I just googled WAR and they had a pic of Arcia as a starting point to being average..
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He put up 0.7 in 68 games last year, that's on the 1.5 pace
 
Carp said:
The last time Arcia played SS with any regularity was 2020, and he was roughly average defensively. To be honest, his 2022 season was nearly identical in value to both his offensive and defensive output. If he can manage that production over 140-150 games at SS, that would make him a 1.5 - 2 win player. Do we really expect Grissom/Shewmake to be better than that?

As much I would rather give the young guys a shot, Arcia is probably the better choice
I would just rather have a better reserve player than Adrianza.
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Over the last 4 years, Arcia has had 1,058 PAs and played over 2,000 innings in the field. His total WAR over that time is 0.1. Over the last 4 years, Arcia has been replacement level. To suddenly expect him to be a 2 win player, especially now that his defense has eroded, is unreasonable.

You can't just project his stats from last year over a full season. There are a lot of guys who can put up great stats when used in the right situations but would be an enormous drag if they started every day. Look at Arcia's RC+ by month. In only two months did he get over 50 PAs, those were June and July when he got a lot of PT with Albies out. Those two months Arcia's RC+ took a nose dive to 82 and 62 respectively. In every other month when he was used more situationally, he had an RC+ of over 100.

Arcia is a perfectly respectable reserve infielder (provided his defense doesn't degrade any more). As a starter he's overmatched.
 
I lost my crap last season over the FF to Olson transition, and in the end, the braves still won 100 games. I learned my lesson... AA is SLIGHTLY (haha) smarter than me, and he for sure knows what he's doing. Freaking out over who starts the season at SS when the choices are anything but clear cut seems over the top for even me.
 
msstate7 said:
I lost my crap last season over the FF to Olson transition, and in the end, the braves still won 100 games. I learned my lesson... AA is SLIGHTLY (haha) smarter than me, and he for sure knows what he's doing. Freaking out over who starts the season at SS when the choices are anything but clear cut seems over the top for even me.
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I don't think anyone is panicking that this dooms the Braves season.. just not the move I would have gone with (given the factors known to us at this time).. AA is not immune from making bad decisions, those bad decisions don't make him a bad GM.. just a bad decision.

And I still think Twitner had more to do with this than AA.. Fringe guys are on the field eval... Twit is probably the final say in those type guys.
 
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bravesfanMatt said:
I don't think anyone is panicking that this dooms the Braves season.. just not the move I would have gone with (given the factors known to us at this time).. AA is not immune from making bad decisions, those bad decisions don't make him a bad GM.. just a bad decision.
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But we don't know if it's a bad decision. I think the braves had every intention of using Grissom at SS this season... see the wash blurbs put out. I think they're scared of his lack of range like I am.

If AA made a mistake, the mistake was most likely counting on Grissom/Arcia coming into the season rather than starting Arcia out the gate imo

ETA... and I bet you our pitchers that count on ground balls aren't thrilled with a lack of range at ss
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I don't think anyone is panicking that this dooms the Braves season.. just not the move I would have gone with (given the factors known to us at this time).. AA is not immune from making bad decisions, those bad decisions don't make him a bad GM.. just a bad decision.
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I think the fact that this is a pretty puzzling decision draws more attention to it. Grissom is just as likely as Arcia to be a 2 win player this year, maybe more so. And Grissom definitely has the potential to do more than that. Grissom also has a chance to be a major piece for the Braves moving forward while Arcia definitely isn't.

Even if they went with Shewmake you could point to defense as a reason. He's probably the best defensively of the three.

With Arcia, the only reason this makes sense is manipulating service time. Such decisions usually draw notice.
 
msstate7 said:
But we don't know if it's a bad decision. I think the braves had every intention of using Grissom at SS this season... see the wash blurbs put out. I think they're scared of his lack of range like I am.

If AA made a mistake, the mistake was most likely counting on Grissom/Arcia coming into the season rather than starting Arcia out the gate imo

ETA... and I bet you our pitchers that count on ground balls aren't thrilled with a lack of range at ss
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But it's not like Arcia is a whiz with a glove. He's below average as well. If defense was the defining factor, you pick Shewmake. Sure he might get the bat knocked out of his hands but Arcia isn't likely to do much better.
 
striker42 said:
I think the fact that this is a pretty puzzling decision draws more attention to it. Grissom is just as likely as Arcia to be a 2 win player this year, maybe more so. And Grissom definitely has the potential to do more than that. Grissom also has a chance to be a major piece for the Braves moving forward while Arcia definitely isn't.

Even if they went with Shewmake you could point to defense as a reason. He's probably the best defensively of the three.

With Arcia, the only reason this makes sense is manipulating service time. Such decisions usually draw notice.
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Service time for who though? Shewmake isn't worth that unless he's completely blown up (very unlikely), and Grissom got time last year
 
CyYoung31 said:
So…does he have an injury or does he not? They were “worried” about a potential injury a couple weeks ago so they decide to option him now? Doesn’t make any sense.
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Doesn't make sense to let him play short and steal bases yesterday. I mean it's only Peter Gammons saying this. Dude is like 100 years old.
 
msstate7 said:
Service time for who though? Shewmake isn't worth that unless he's completely blown up (very unlikely), and Grissom got time last year
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yeah, service time doesn't make sense.. Griss would have to be down till almost July and Shew will win ROY when he gets a chance so it doesn't matter when they bring him up.
 
striker42 said:
With Arcia, the only reason this makes sense is manipulating service time. Such decisions usually draw notice.
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By "service time manipulation", are you intending to say there is no reason to keep Grissom and Shewmake in the minors other than extending player control? I just can't get there. Both of them need more development time before they should be counted on for a significant role in MLB. Grissom's bat was so cold at the end of last year he was basically unplayable. Prior to Spring training many people on here had decided Shewmake was a complete bust.

Arcia is a $1.3 million place holder. He had the everyday 2b job last year and proved he isn't an everyday player. Expecting him to be an everyday SS the entire year is crazy. Simply hope to get some production out of him for the first 45-60 days of the year and allow Grissom and Shewmake to get 100+ PA in AAA. Then give one (or both) of them an audition to figure out whether a trade is necessary at the deadline.

The Braves used to have really hyped prospects that didn't pan out. Now they have under the radar guys that seemingly come out of nowhere. This is way more fun.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I don't think anyone is panicking that this dooms the Braves season.. just not the move I would have gone with (given the factors known to us at this time).. AA is not immune from making bad decisions, those bad decisions don't make him a bad GM.. just a bad decision.

And I still think Twitner had more to do with this than AA.. Fringe guys are on the field eval... Twit is probably the final say in those type guys.
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In an earlier era with ten-man pitching staffs and long benches, managers would often keep a 25th guy whose basic job was being an extra coach and maybe getting 50-100 ABs and play a few hundred innings around the IF/OF. In an era driven more by analytics and shorter benches, that rarely, if ever, happens anymore. There may be some service time issues (and now apparently a possible injury) that may have influenced the final roster construction, but I don't imagine Snitker gets a major say on who goes north. Don't take this as an all-out defense of Snitker, who certainly has his warts.
 
Does a player really gain anything from 100 PA in AAA? I mean, I would think consistent reps at SS and regular playing time would benefit both. So, to me, it would make more sense to have one in the Majors and one in AAA, so both are playing regular. Instead, we will get to watch Arcia be amazingly underwhelming and the 2 guys we hope will be the future SS have to split time at SS and 2nd base. I get the 'safe' move, but the Braves are where they are because they didn't play it safe and let the rookies run the show.
 
msstate7 said:
Service time for who though? Shewmake isn't worth that unless he's completely blown up (very unlikely), and Grissom got time last year
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I could see the Braves manipulating Shewmake's service time. The front office is probably higher on him than they should be. They did spend a first round pick on him. So I could see them thinking he could be a glove first answer at SS (even if I disagree with this analysis). I doubt this would be service time manipulation to get an extra year of control (he'll already be past 30 before becoming a FA) and more likely to have to do with arbitration. If they could avoid him becoming a Super 2 player then he wouldn't be arb eligible until 2027. So extending the amount of time Shewmake is cheap is something I could see happening.

With Grissom, he'd have to be down for about 2 months to extend control over him another year. That extra year could be important with Grissom. I could easily see the Braves reasoning that giving him 2 months in the minors to work on defense is a good use of time if it means an additional year of control.
 
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