AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
Any of the two shots landed yet? Air Traffic Control stating they are seeing UFO's coming from the stadium.
Stanton
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Stanton is the real Rocket Man.
Hudson2
Well-known member
Freddie's numbers would be insane hitting in front of Stanton. He loves to work out and stay in shape so hel'll age better than somebody like Kemp will. If the Braves wanna generate a huge buzz for the stadium next year Stanton is the way to go no doubt. And he'd mainly only cost money. That would leave us prospects to go after Fulmer.
chop2chip
Well-known member
For a 70 win team (that for most of the year was extremely boring to watch), 31K per game isn't that bad.
I'm worried about next season though. Seems like the narrative surrounding the team is a lot less optimistic than it was a year ago.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
the payroll constraint is one reason the might spend prospects to get Archer or Fulmer
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think Stanton could be had relatively cheaply to a team willing to take other contracts. As I've said before, the Marlins stand to enter 2018 with a payroll in the $145M range if they do nothing. They have made public statements that the payroll should be in the $75M range.
The FO is in a unique time and position in that they are new and will be expected to make moves and being new will give them a certain amount of good will; the Marlins really have no long time local loyal fanbase of any note anyway; getting the payroll to $75M likely insures profitability even if no one shows at the park. Trading Stanton alone doesn't get them where they want to be. They have a couple of contracts that aren't moveable under any circumstances - Chen (worst contract in baseball) and Volquez (TJ- may have insurance).
If the Braves were to build an offer like: Stanton ($25M), Prado ($13.5M), Ziegler ($9M), Tazawa ($7M) for Kemp ($18M), Camargo, Fried, Riley and Wentz
The Prado contract plus Tazawa is pretty much a wash for Kemp. So your getting Stanton (but taking on his short and long term salary obligation PLUS Ziegler's for Camargo, Fried, Riley and Wentz - not zero talent return but certainly less than they could get for Stanton by himself with them paying part of what he is owed (you have to remember that while some team in the offseason may be willing to take his whole contract any team could have claimed him this season through waivers and didn't).
The Braves would effectively be taking on $36.5M in payroll after netting out Kemp. But, Colon's number coming off, Garcia's, and Dickey's alone take away about $26M of that (Garcia's number figured at half of his 2017 number). If you fina a taker for most of Markakis's salary then you are at net neutral.
You've added the big draw that you want/need in Stanton.
You've brought in a veteran presence for 3B who could platoon a little with Ruiz if necessary.
You've added two BP arms who can at least be middle relief of a sorts (Braves aren't going to play at the Wade Davis level anyway)
You've rid yourself of Kemp.
The Marlins shed a huge amount of short and long term payroll. They don't want Kemp I'm sure, but unless the Braves payroll is going up, then he has to be in the deal. If the Braves payroll has the room AND the Marlins won't accept Kemp as part of the package, I probably still do the deal but cut the return going the other way even further.
Another way I was thinking would be to make it bigger: Stanton, Prado, Tazawa, Zeigler, Gordon, Realmuto for Kemp, Swanson, Camargo, Fried and Wentz. I would slide Albies over to short and let Flowers go. But that deals probably too big for anyone to get their head around.
The FO is in a unique time and position in that they are new and will be expected to make moves and being new will give them a certain amount of good will; the Marlins really have no long time local loyal fanbase of any note anyway; getting the payroll to $75M likely insures profitability even if no one shows at the park. Trading Stanton alone doesn't get them where they want to be. They have a couple of contracts that aren't moveable under any circumstances - Chen (worst contract in baseball) and Volquez (TJ- may have insurance).
If the Braves were to build an offer like: Stanton ($25M), Prado ($13.5M), Ziegler ($9M), Tazawa ($7M) for Kemp ($18M), Camargo, Fried, Riley and Wentz
The Prado contract plus Tazawa is pretty much a wash for Kemp. So your getting Stanton (but taking on his short and long term salary obligation PLUS Ziegler's for Camargo, Fried, Riley and Wentz - not zero talent return but certainly less than they could get for Stanton by himself with them paying part of what he is owed (you have to remember that while some team in the offseason may be willing to take his whole contract any team could have claimed him this season through waivers and didn't).
The Braves would effectively be taking on $36.5M in payroll after netting out Kemp. But, Colon's number coming off, Garcia's, and Dickey's alone take away about $26M of that (Garcia's number figured at half of his 2017 number). If you fina a taker for most of Markakis's salary then you are at net neutral.
You've added the big draw that you want/need in Stanton.
You've brought in a veteran presence for 3B who could platoon a little with Ruiz if necessary.
You've added two BP arms who can at least be middle relief of a sorts (Braves aren't going to play at the Wade Davis level anyway)
You've rid yourself of Kemp.
The Marlins shed a huge amount of short and long term payroll. They don't want Kemp I'm sure, but unless the Braves payroll is going up, then he has to be in the deal. If the Braves payroll has the room AND the Marlins won't accept Kemp as part of the package, I probably still do the deal but cut the return going the other way even further.
Another way I was thinking would be to make it bigger: Stanton, Prado, Tazawa, Zeigler, Gordon, Realmuto for Kemp, Swanson, Camargo, Fried and Wentz. I would slide Albies over to short and let Flowers go. But that deals probably too big for anyone to get their head around.
LOL...Come on man, at least keep a shred of realism in these crazy trade proposals.
The Marlins aren't going to cut payroll by swapping Stanton for Kemp. There will be a dozen offers out there for Stanton that don't require the Marlins to take another bad contract back. They could very well shackle a bad contract to Stanton, but that just makes it even more unlikely for the Braves to acquire him.
The Braves could do something crazy this offseason like trade for Stanton, but they will pay dearly for it. The desperation to save their jobs could cause the current FO to do some things that seriously short circuit the long term benefits of the rebuild. Here's to hoping they aren't that desperate.
The Marlins aren't going to cut payroll by swapping Stanton for Kemp. There will be a dozen offers out there for Stanton that don't require the Marlins to take another bad contract back. They could very well shackle a bad contract to Stanton, but that just makes it even more unlikely for the Braves to acquire him.
The Braves could do something crazy this offseason like trade for Stanton, but they will pay dearly for it. The desperation to save their jobs could cause the current FO to do some things that seriously short circuit the long term benefits of the rebuild. Here's to hoping they aren't that desperate.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Whose narrative, I guess is the question.
This season's results were pretty much as projected and there is no evidence that anyone is finding the returns from the farm to be disappointing.
Let's keep in mind that outside sources didn't expect the braves in the playoffs any time soon.
I'd be willing to bet neither pitcher is traded this offseason.
For some reason the Cards are linked to JD Martinez over and over. If they sign him I could see the Braves trading for one of the Cards' cheap extra OFers. I would prefer Piscotty. It would require a pitching prospect we would hate to lose, who would then go on to be Waino for the Cards.
Southcack77
Well-known member
My guess is that it wouldn't be one of the Braves favorite prospects but it could be someone that came back to haunt.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think a "crazy" trade is possible when you look at the situation as a whole.
IF the Marlins only needed to shed Stanton's contract to be where they need to be then sure they dangle him for best available, make the move and move on.
But that's not where they are. Shedding Stanton is just a piece of what they would need to do. If you take the others in my proposed trade, they have no ability to trade any of them for anything and couldn't give them away without paying money which goes against their need.
A healthy Prado has some value and maybe would bring back nothing but 100% salary relief in a stand alone trade if teams knew he was healthy. Since they don't know that, there is no way they move him without paying part of his contract.
The same for Zeigler and Tazawa.
Paying money to get teams to take part of a contract just doesn't work for them if they are really trying to shed down to $75M.
I guess they could try to tag some of the dead weight to Yelich and/or Ozuna but I still think they would have to trade Stanton to get where they want to go.
They are in a bad spot unless they are willing to step the payroll down over several years and lose money along the way. If they are willing to do that then all bets are off.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think you may be taking this part too seriously.
The Giants and Cardinals can BOTH eat that entire contract without needing to send a bad contract back and are MUCH more likely to send better prospects back than the Braves would. San Francisco just cleared Cain's money, meaning Stanton would only add $5 million to their payroll next season, and $6 million in 2019 and 2020. At that point, he becomes a 7 year/$218 million player IF he doesn't opt out. Pence's money ($18.5 million per) comes off following next season and they already control MadBum through 2019 and are supposedly working on locking him up for good. The Cardinals clear Wainright's $19.5 million per following next season and have ready replacements for him, clear Zach Duke's $5.5 million this winter that would make trading for Stanton cheaper through his opt-out date than signing J. D. Martinez or J-Up this winter, and could send Piscotty back to fill an OF spot on the cheap while the Marlins get huge hauls for Yelich and Osuna.
It would make all the sense in the world for the Giants to offer Christian Arroyo and Tyler Beede while taking on ALL the money and the Cardinals to offer Piscotty OR Harrison Bader OR Magneuris Sierra, Tyler O'Neill, and Sandy Alcantara and take on ALL the money to trump them.
You guys love to talk in absolutes - there is absolutely no chance Giancarlo Stanton becomes a Brave unless he opts out when he can and the Braves outbid everybody for him. Anybody care to run the numbers on what the chances they do that are if they pass on doing that for Harper or Machado???
They may shackle Stanton to another bad contract. In fact, they may shackle bad contracts to other players like Yelich and Ozuna as well. That's at least plausible.
They are not going to take Kemp, or any other bad contract, in exchange for Stanton to help another team make things work out. They are not going to take on a dead weight contract that will require them to pare down payroll even more in 2018.
The only reason the Braves did silly swaps of bad contracts was to free up money for the magical 2017 season. Other teams don't operate that way...the Marlins want to clear payroll now...not in 2020 when Kemp's deal expires.
It isn't happening. If the Braves want Stanton they will have to pony up. Clearing Kemp will be a separate transaction.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
As I said before, that may be right. They won't take Kemp back under ANY circumstances. If that is the case then they will get less back for him OR they will have to be willing to live with not moving the other bad pieces.
I think they could easily find a taker or Stanton if they said, yeah, we're willing to eat $30M of his salary but we want....probably an Eaton/Sale type return. But they don't appear willing to send any money in a Stanton move.
I think they might be able to find a team that will take all of Stanton's contract but they aren't likely to be willing to send much of anything in return, certainly not an Eaton/Sale like return. If this was going to happen why did no team claim him through waivers?
I don't think they will be able to find a team willing to take all of Stanton's contract plus other bad contracts PLUS send significant talent in exchange. That's a dream scenario and Dave Stewart is out of baseball.
It's always possible that what they've been telling the media is not true, that they want to get the payroll to $75M. But, I don't see the advantage to that. It just puts teams in mind to wait you out when talking trade. If you truly don't care about reaching $75M anytime soon then you say something along the lines of " we need to get the payroll in a more manageable position but we have a little time to work through that and are under no pressure to make bad baseball moves in effort to lower payroll." They haven't done that. They may come back and do that because the realize that saying you are a wounded animal isn't really a good basis for negotiation but that won't change the reality of it.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
The Giants don't have any prospects worth much of anything and why would Stanton want to go there (he has a no trade). They could take the whole contract but so could the Braves.
The Cards farm isn't a ton better but they are probably a more likely destination.
The Yankees should be the biggest threat since they have talent, money and could market a "new twin towers" with Stanton and Judge mashing in the same OF. But I think Jeter probably doesn't want to come off looking like the Yankees b*tch his first major transaction. But, I also don't think Jeter will want to see Stanton going to Boston unless he has no choice.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Maybe. But why say it publicly. There is no upside if it isn't true.