Stanton

Horsehide Harry said:
I think Stanton could be had relatively cheaply to a team willing to take other contracts. As I've said before, the Marlins stand to enter 2018 with a payroll in the $145M range if they do nothing. They have made public statements that the payroll should be in the $75M range.

The FO is in a unique time and position in that they are new and will be expected to make moves and being new will give them a certain amount of good will; the Marlins really have no long time local loyal fanbase of any note anyway; getting the payroll to $75M likely insures profitability even if no one shows at the park. Trading Stanton alone doesn't get them where they want to be. They have a couple of contracts that aren't moveable under any circumstances - Chen (worst contract in baseball) and Volquez (TJ- may have insurance).

If the Braves were to build an offer like: Stanton ($25M), Prado ($13.5M), Ziegler ($9M), Tazawa ($7M) for Kemp ($18M), Camargo, Fried, Riley and Wentz

The Prado contract plus Tazawa is pretty much a wash for Kemp. So your getting Stanton (but taking on his short and long term salary obligation PLUS Ziegler's for Camargo, Fried, Riley and Wentz - not zero talent return but certainly less than they could get for Stanton by himself with them paying part of what he is owed (you have to remember that while some team in the offseason may be willing to take his whole contract any team could have claimed him this season through waivers and didn't).

The Braves would effectively be taking on $36.5M in payroll after netting out Kemp. But, Colon's number coming off, Garcia's, and Dickey's alone take away about $26M of that (Garcia's number figured at half of his 2017 number). If you fina a taker for most of Markakis's salary then you are at net neutral.

You've added the big draw that you want/need in Stanton.

You've brought in a veteran presence for 3B who could platoon a little with Ruiz if necessary.

You've added two BP arms who can at least be middle relief of a sorts (Braves aren't going to play at the Wade Davis level anyway)

You've rid yourself of Kemp.

The Marlins shed a huge amount of short and long term payroll. They don't want Kemp I'm sure, but unless the Braves payroll is going up, then he has to be in the deal. If the Braves payroll has the room AND the Marlins won't accept Kemp as part of the package, I probably still do the deal but cut the return going the other way even further.

Another way I was thinking would be to make it bigger: Stanton, Prado, Tazawa, Zeigler, Gordon, Realmuto for Kemp, Swanson, Camargo, Fried and Wentz. I would slide Albies over to short and let Flowers go. But that deals probably too big for anyone to get their head around.
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Is not more easy to trade your Braves shirt for the Marlins shirt. Just become a Marlins fan.
 
It's going to be interesting to see who wins the NL MVP this year. You you Bryant, Rendon, and Stanton as the front runners and all equally deserving. IMO Stanton is having the best year and could be a magical year in a certain counting stat depending on how the weekend goes. But he's not on a playoff team and not head and shoulders ahead of the other two. Rendon and Bryant are both similar players. Both all around great players. Rendon better defensively and Bryant a better hitter and base runner. Both are on playoff teams. Should be a close race. I feel if Stanton gets to 61 if not just 60 then he will get the votes regardless of how his team did.
 
thewupk said:
It's going to be interesting to see who wins the NL MVP this year. You you Bryant, Rendon, and Stanton as the front runners and all equally deserving. IMO Stanton is having the best year and could be a magical year in a certain counting stat depending on how the weekend goes. But he's not on a playoff team and not head and shoulders ahead of the other two. Rendon and Bryant are both similar players. Both all around great players. Rendon better defensively and Bryant a better hitter and base runner. Both are on playoff teams. Should be a close race. I feel if Stanton gets to 61 if not just 60 then he will get the votes regardless of how his team did.
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I loathe the Zombie Expos, but I'd probably go Rendon, just because of the injury issues that otherwise piled on for their offense; he was glue. Heart prefers Bryant, but head says Rendon.
 
I'd have to put Charlie Blackmon right up there for NL MVP, he's top in BA and hits and 3rd in homeruns.
 
Hudson2 said:
I'd have to put Charlie Blackmon right up there for NL MVP, he's top in BA and hits and 3rd in homeruns.
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I'd go Goldschmidt over Blackmon, if we're looking at the Wild Card teams; I think he's meant more to his club than Blackmon, and they've produced similarly, all told.
 
Southcack77 said:
Harry, the Braves are not getting Stanton.

No team shedding payroll is going to take Kemp. It makes no sense.
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The Braves may get Stanton and they may overpay big to do it. It's just the type move a struggling FO would make.

I have been clear all along that I didn't think trying to short circuit the rebuild was a good idea. But since the FO has decided to do that, I've moved on to exploring ideas about how to do it in a way that works both short term (saves everybody's necks) and also doesn't overly limit long term.

Stanton will likely be traded to someone. The new Marlins ownership really has no choice unless they've been lying about their payroll intentions and their is no upside to that.

The Braves may be able to include Kemp in a deal IF they take more money (net) back. Take the names out of the equation and replace them with dollar signs. $25M+$9M+$15M+$7M >>>$18M or nets out to $38M in salary relief for the Marlins. They still may not do it.

Everyone seems to look at Stanton in terms of his talent. That's really a small part of the equation at this point. if he was signed for 3 more years only, even at $30M per year, he would bring a huge return in trade. But, he's not. He's signed for 11 more years at an AAV of about $28M per year. Sure he can opt out after 2020. But if you trade for him you can't count on that happening. Every team out their looking to trade for him currently thinks that they can get him and have the Marlins pay down part of his contract. My thinking is a way to take him and pay full contract value but not talent value. It is unusual but not impossible.
 
Hudson2 said:
I'd have to put Charlie Blackmon right up there for NL MVP, he's top in BA and hits and 3rd in homeruns.
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Yeah I somehow overlooked him. Sometimes it's hard to get over the Coors bias. He's been HOF level (184 WRC+ at home) but league average level (103 WRC+) on the road.
 
Stanton will likely never equal this year again. The Marlins are idiots if they don’t move him this offseason. With Jeter there...count on him going to the Yanks. It’s no big deal to them to eat a few bad years. They probably will get him for a song and dance also.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The Braves may get Stanton and they may overpay big to do it. It's just the type move a struggling FO would make.

I have been clear all along that I didn't think trying to short circuit the rebuild was a good idea. But since the FO has decided to do that, I've moved on to exploring ideas about how to do it in a way that works both short term (saves everybody's necks) and also doesn't overly limit long term.

Stanton will likely be traded to someone. The new Marlins ownership really has no choice unless they've been lying about their payroll intentions and their is no upside to that.

The Braves may be able to include Kemp in a deal IF they take more money (net) back. Take the names out of the equation and replace them with dollar signs. $25M+$9M+$15M+$7M >>>$18M or nets out to $38M in salary relief for the Marlins. They still may not do it.

Everyone seems to look at Stanton in terms of his talent. That's really a small part of the equation at this point. if he was signed for 3 more years only, even at $30M per year, he would bring a huge return in trade. But, he's not. He's signed for 11 more years at an AAV of about $28M per year. Sure he can opt out after 2020. But if you trade for him you can't count on that happening. Every team out their looking to trade for him currently thinks that they can get him and have the Marlins pay down part of his contract. My thinking is a way to take him and pay full contract value but not talent value. It is unusual but not impossible.
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No chance the FO trades for Stanton.
 
TheBravos said:
Stanton will likely never equal this year again. The Marlins are idiots if they don’t move him this offseason. With Jeter there...count on him going to the Yanks. It’s no big deal to them to eat a few bad years. They probably will get him for a song and dance also.
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He may not reach this many homers again. But it's his 4th year of being atbthus level offensively. 150 or better wrc+
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The Giants don't have any prospects worth much of anything and why would Stanton want to go there (he has a no trade). They could take the whole contract but so could the Braves.

The Cards farm isn't a ton better but they are probably a more likely destination.

The Yankees should be the biggest threat since they have talent, money and could market a "new twin towers" with Stanton and Judge mashing in the same OF. But I think Jeter probably doesn't want to come off looking like the Yankees b*tch his first major transaction. But, I also don't think Jeter will want to see Stanton going to Boston unless he has no choice.
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The Braves can not take on Stanton's entire contract and have never been able to carry one like it. You are aware that Freddie Freeman's the highest-paid player in the history of the franchise, right?
 
clvclv said:
The Braves can not take on Stanton's entire contract and have never been able to carry one like it. You are aware that Freddie Freeman's the highest-paid player in the history of the franchise, right?
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Yes but before we used to had Dan Uggla, Jason Hayward, Kimbrel, Chris Johnson, The Upton’s brother there you had a huge payroll. Now you have a bunch of rookies and more to come.
 
Anyone interested in trading for Stanton needs to understand the only 2 scenarios that will happen:

1. Stanton continues to be a 5+ WAR monster he next 3 seasons, and provides ~$75M+ of surplus value over those 3 years. He will then opt out to sign a $300M+ deal.

2. Stanton goes on to be an injury prone guy posting ~3 WAR the next 3 seasons. He will NOT opt out, and the team will be stuck with the next Pujols contract.

So those are the 2 scenarios. Either the team acquires $75M+ in surplus value over 3 seasons, or a horrific albatross contract. Teams will assign probabilities for each scenario, come up with an expected outcome, and bid accordingly.

Whoever gives up ~$50M in prospect value (the amount I assume it will ultimately take to acquire Stanton) will be taking a gamble with the potential to cripple all but the highest revenue franchises for the next decade.

It is exactly the type move a FO who is desperate to save their jobs would make.
 
Enscheff said:
Anyone interested in trading for Stanton needs to understand the only 2 scenarios that will happen:

1. Stanton continues to be a 5+ WAR monster he next 3 seasons, and provides ~$75M+ of surplus value over those 3 years. He will then opt out to sign a $300M+ deal.

2. Stanton goes on to be an injury prone guy posting ~3 WAR the next 3 seasons. He will NOT opt out, and the team will be stuck with the next Pujols contract.

So those are the 2 scenarios. Either the team acquires $75M+ in surplus value over 3 seasons, or a horrific albatross contract. Teams will assign probabilities for each scenario, come up with an expected outcome, and bid accordingly.

Whoever gives up ~$50M in prospect value (the amount I assume it will ultimately take to acquire Stanton) will be taking a gamble with the potential to cripple all but the highest revenue franchises for the next decade.

It is exactly the type move a FO who is desperate to save their jobs would make.
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Any acquiring team has to make a judgment regarding the probabilities of the two scenarios and reach the appropriate expected value. One is much more likely than the other imo.
 
nsacpi said:
Any acquiring team has to make a judgment regarding the probabilities of the two scenarios and reach the appropriate expected value. One is much more likely than the other imo.
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That's how I came up with the $50M number. I think the good scenario is about 2x-3x as likely as the worst case scenario.
 
Enscheff said:
That's how I came up with the $50M number. I think the good scenario is about 2x-3x as likely as the worst case scenario.
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i'd say at least 5 times...teams might also adjust their view of his contract when they see what Harper and Machado get...or even what Justin Upton and JD Martinez get
 
nsacpi said:
i'd say at least 5 times...teams might also adjust their view of his contract when they see what Harper and Machado get...or even what Justin Upton and JD Martinez get
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Indeed. The initial thought on Freeman's extension ranged from that it was too much for a guy who just had one superstar season to market value for such a player. Wherever you were on that line of thinking because as of right now the contract is pretty much a bargain with todays salaries and it's only been 3 seasons into it. Martinez and Upton are going to set a new bar this offseason for the all-star sluggers. Assuming Machado rebounds next year then he and Harper are going to set an even higher bar the following year. The baseball salary bubble has to bust at some point but until it does they will continue to escalate and Stantons contract won't look that bad as long as he continues to produce.
 
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