Starters

nsacpi said:
I'll give two sets of rankings. The first column lists order of effectiveness at the major league level at the start of the 2017 season and the second the order by the end of the season.

1. Teheran Teheran
2. Wisler Wisler
3. Folty Folty
4. Gant Gant
5. Perez Newcomb
6. Newcomb Sims
7. Blair Blair
8. Sims Perez
9. Harrell Povse
10. Jenkins Harrell
11. Ellis Jenkins
12. Whalen Ellis
13. Weber Whalen
14. Povse Weber
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Harrell will be a free agent. Povse will get a look-see this year, much as Weber did last season, if he keeps rolling.
 
nsacpi said:
I was thinking about that too. I think he is a wild card in that regard. Unless the medical reports indicate he should not be given the work load of a starting pitcher, I'd start him out next year in the starting rotation at AA. As with any other pitching prospect, you want to give him every opportunity to develop as a starter. I'm ok with them limiting innings this year coming off TJ surgery. But next year give him a shot as a starter.
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Unless they feel the need to give him innings, he should not ever be moved out of the bullpen. What he has done since he was activated is almost unheard of. Money in the bank, it seems
 
Russ2dollas said:
I like the idea of taking on a good pitcher who is over paid. If we could take that deal off their books and send them one of our 4/5 starters to take their place, maybe we could get a bat we could use. Again, not going to get a star but maybe you get a bat you can use.
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I want Sonny Gray so bad, it almost hurts.
 
Wanted to redo my list to move Whalen up and to reflect the acquisition of Michael Mader. Here are my new rankings of the starting pitchers currently in the majors, AAA and AA.

1. Teheran
2. Wisler
3. Folty
4. Gant
5. Sims
6. Newcomb
7. Whalen
8. Blair
9. Povse
10. Jenkins
11. Perez
12. Mader
13. Ellis
14. Weber

Note there is some projection involved in the above rankings. They reflect where I think the pecking order will be by the end of 2017.
 
not by next season, but i'm starting to think povse could be what he always has been in the big leagues and end up being one of the guys to stick in the rotation long term. who knows, but this year...124 IP 22 BB 117 SO. he's never given up too many home runs either. and he's a giant who already throws hard. seems like a recipe for a guy, provided good health, can grow into his body. he's already got the parts about keeping it around the strike zone and in the park down.
 
chipchildress said:
not by next season, but i'm starting to think povse could be what he always has been in the big leagues and end up being one of the guys to stick in the rotation long term. who knows, but this year...124 IP 22 BB 117 SO. he's never given up too many home runs either. and he's a giant who already throws hard. seems like a recipe for a guy, provided good health, can grow into his body. he's already got the parts about keeping it around the strike zone and in the park down.
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I'll never forget that the bald guy on MLB network basically chuckled at this pick being a signing bonus saver pick.
 
nsacpi said:
Wanted to redo my list to move Whalen up and to reflect the acquisition of Michael Mader. Here are my new rankings of the starting pitchers currently in the majors, AAA and AA.

1. Teheran
2. Wisler
3. Folty
4. Gant
5. Sims
6. Newcomb
7. Whalen
8. Blair
9. Povse
10. Jenkins
11. Perez
12. Mader
13. Ellis
14. Weber

Note there is some projection involved in the above rankings. They reflect where I think the pecking order will be by the end of 2017.
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It seems like a real shame that the high end guys are further away. Many of our BOR type pitchers (4/5) will be ready by next year (Wisler, Blair, Jenkins, Gant, Whalen, Perez, Ellis) but how many of those can you use to fill a rotation?

I think Sims, Newcome, & Povse will be 2018+.
 
bravesguy said:
It seems like a real shame that the high end guys are further away. Many of our BOR type pitchers (4/5) will be ready by next year (Wisler, Blair, Jenkins, Gant, Whalen, Perez, Ellis) but how many of those can you use to fill a rotation?

I think Sims, Newcome, & Povse will be 2018+.
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i think one or two of these guys will develop into something more than a bottom of the rotation type. we need to give as many a chance to develop as starters as possible.
 
chop2chip said:
FWIW, Newcomb has pitched better this year than he did last year with LAA. I think he's really underrated on this board.
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Underrated would mean that you think he is coming to ATL sooner? All I read is that when he figures out his control, he is a TOR type picture.

I also agree he is better this year, but I don't think he is major league ready yet and see him being assigned to AAA next year to see what he can do.
 
i expect Sims and Newcomb to start the year in AAA, but at some point the will be part of the mix for the major league team.
 
bravesguy said:
Underrated would mean that you think he is coming to ATL sooner? All I read is that when he figures out his control, he is a TOR type picture.

I also agree he is better this year, but I don't think he is major league ready yet and see him being assigned to AAA next year to see what he can do.
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I wouldn't have him begin the season in next year's rotation, but I think he could be ready by June. I don't know what factors into it (poor umpiring, catchers, etc.) but it seems like the best thing to happen with guys with control problems is major league call ups.
 
chop2chip said:
FWIW, Newcomb has pitched better this year than he did last year with LAA. I think he's really underrated on this board.
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He is still walking 4.8 guys per 9, and hasn't shown any improvement in that area in 3+ professional seasons. Meanwhile, his K rate has been dropping every year.

I think folks were looking for him to improve his control, and it just hasn't happened. Yes, I know, your next reply will be that sometimes control develops late, and in some cases it does. However, it is much more likely that it doesn't develop at all, and that's why Newcomb's stock has fallen.
 
Enscheff said:
He is still walking 4.8 guys per 9, and hasn't shown any improvement in that area in 3+ professional seasons. Meanwhile, his K rate has been dropping every year.

I think folks were looking for him to improve his control, and it just hasn't happened. Yes, I know, your next reply will be that sometimes control develops late, and in some cases it does. However, it is much more likely that it doesn't develop at all, and that's why Newcomb's stock has fallen.
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His K-rate has dropped has he's risen up the ranks, but it's still at 9.5 per 9, which is awesome. Nobody expected Newcomb to maintain a K rate of 12 per 9 innings.

His control isn't very good, but he's a tall left handed pitcher that throws hard. He has an exceptional strike out rate and who never gives up homeruns (which leads me to believe that he also has an excellent ground ball rate).

I understand why his stock has dropped, but I'm bullish on him moving forward.
 
chop2chip said:
His K-rate has dropped has he's risen up the ranks, but it's still at 9.5 per 9, which is awesome. Nobody expected Newcomb to maintain a K rate of 12 per 9 innings.

His control isn't very good, but he's a tall left handed pitcher that throws hard. He has an exceptional strike out rate and who never gives up homeruns (which leads me to believe that he also has an excellent ground ball rate).

I understand why his stock has dropped, but I'm bullish on him moving forward.
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FWIW, I largely feel the same way about Lucas Sims. I don't think he has TOR talent (Newcomb does), but I think he has a future to be in somebody's big league rotation. 2017 is going hugely important for him.
 
chop2chip said:
FWIW, I largely feel the same way about Lucas Sims. I don't think he has TOR talent (Newcomb does), but I think he has a future to be in somebody's big league rotation. 2017 is going hugely important for him.
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I'm wondering if giving Sims some big leagues innings sooner than later might be a good idea. Cabrera was my favorite pitcher at Mississippi because of his 100 mph fastball but I never thought he would pitch in the majors. Sims imo is like Cabera in that his stuff isn't going to get any better so why not move him up and see what he can do.

To go back to an earlier conversation in this thread. Minter is definitely a closer. Being a hard throwing left could make him an elite closer. With Cabera starting to put it together I'm excited about the trio of Viz, Cabrera, and Minter closing out games. That could be a dominant trio.
 
If we're talking about the end of 2017. Mine is below. I think Newcomb and Blair are going to surprise many who have written them off and Gant and Whalen are going to prove to be more back-end guys with low ceilings.

1. Teheran
2. Wisler
3. Folty
4. Newcomb
5. Blair
6. Sims
7. Whalen
8. Jenkins
9. Gant
10. Ellis
 
Enscheff said:
He is still walking 4.8 guys per 9, and hasn't shown any improvement in that area in 3+ professional seasons. Meanwhile, his K rate has been dropping every year.

I think folks were looking for him to improve his control, and it just hasn't happened. Yes, I know, your next reply will be that sometimes control develops late, and in some cases it does. However, it is much more likely that it doesn't develop at all, and that's why Newcomb's stock has fallen.
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His numbers this year are slightly better than they were last year. given the sample size, pretty fair to say he's basically reproduced this year what he did last year.

His AA strikeout numbers are not as good as his A numbers, but that is to be expected, no? He's basically treading water statistically, though I believe he has performed better lately if I recall the minors reports correctly.

You can simply say that any minor league pitcher is more likely to fail than they are to succeed and be correct.
 
Southcack77 said:
His numbers this year are slightly better than they were last year. given the sample size, pretty fair to say he's basically reproduced this year what he did last year.

His AA strikeout numbers are not as good as his A numbers, but that is to be expected, no? He's basically treading water statistically, though I believe he has performed better lately if I recall the minors reports correctly.

You can simply say that any minor league pitcher is more likely to fail than they are to succeed and be correct.
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Newcomb was a 2 sport star in the northeast. He has not had the innings most guys have who played only baseball year round. He's going to take a little more time, but the good news is he won't have all those innings on his arm.
 
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