Starters

Chico said:
If we're talking about the end of 2017. Mine is below. I think Newcomb and Blair are going to surprise many who have written them off and Gant and Whalen are going to prove to be more back-end guys with low ceilings.

1. Teheran
2. Wisler
3. Folty
4. Newcomb
5. Blair
6. Sims
7. Whalen
8. Jenkins
9. Gant
10. Ellis
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I wouldn't write off Whalen and Jenkins, but their recent performances in the majors have clarified the pecking order. Gant to me has been much more impressive than those two this year, both at the major league and minor league level. I would also put Perez ahead of them. While he's had some poor games, he's done a bit more with the opportunities he's been given. I would put Blair behind Gant but ahead of Perez, Whalen and Jenkins.

As things currently stand, there are four guys I'm ok with starting the 2017 season in the rotation: Teheran, Folty, Wisler and Gant. There is a bit of separation between those four and the others who have reached the majors.

Newcomb and Sims haven't reached the majors, but clearly have more potential imo than Blair, Whalen, Jenkins and Perez. They will likely start 2017 in AAA. My hope is that by June one of them will have grabbed a spot in the rotation.
 
nsacpi said:
I wouldn't write off Whalen and Jenkins, but their recent performances in the majors have clarified the pecking order. Gant to me has been much more impressive than those two this year, both at the major league and minor league level. I would also put Perez ahead of them. While he's had some poor games, he's done a bit more with the opportunities he's been given. I would put Blair behind Gant but ahead of Perez, Whalen and Jenkins.

As things currently stand, there are four guys I'm ok with starting the 2017 season in the rotation: Teheran, Folty, Wisler and Gant. There is a bit of separation between those four and the others who have reached the majors.

Newcomb and Sims haven't reached the majors, but clearly have more potential imo than Blair, Whalen, Jenkins and Perez. They will likely start 2017 in AAA. My hope is that by June one of them will have grabbed a spot in the rotation.
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I think it's going to be Julio, Folty, Wisler and 2 other starters acquired via trade or possibly FA, with the idea of Blair, Newcomb, and Sims in AAA along with whomever else is not traded of the rest. . All 3 of those guys have had down years, and the odds say 2 of the 3 are due for a rebound with some further maturation. I like Gant, but I think we're looking to play the numbers game on higher ceiling pitching prospects. I think Gant could carve out a good role in the pen where his deceptive delivery can be more effective, but we can't keep them all.
 
We are simply going to have to find a way to sign a top of the rotation starter when ready to compete. Folty has potential to be a decent 2/3 type and the rest (ones available in the next 3 years) will be lucky to be middle of the rotation starters.
 
gilesfan said:
We are simply going to have to find a way to sign a top of the rotation starter when ready to compete. Folty has potential to be a decent 2/3 type and the rest (ones available in the next 3 years) will be lucky to be middle of the rotation starters.
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The cost of top of the rotation guys is exorbitant (in either $$ or trade chips). I would be very surprised if we acquired one via the trade or FA market.
 
nsacpi said:
The cost of top of the rotation guys is exorbitant (in either $$ or trade chips). I would be very surprised if we acquired via the trade or FA market.
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This is where the TOR debate starts. I could see us acquiring a 1B/#2 kind of guy this offseason like Archer, but I don't see us acquiring a Chris Sale though. Just using those names as an example.
 
With the pitching we have I'd like to see us invest in offense. I think we can find enough guys to be a decent rotation. Tehran and Folty are at least very good 3s. You can win with worse.

I don't think I want to try to outpitch the Nats and Mets right now. And I hope that in the next couple of years we'll see some true TOR guys come out of our drafts.
 
nsacpi said:
The cost of top of the rotation guys is exorbitant (in either $$ or trade chips). I would be very surprised if we acquired one via the trade or FA market.
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The problem is I'm not sure you win anything significant with a bunch of middle of the rotation guys. I would much rather package them for Chris Sale type.
 
gilesfan said:
We are simply going to have to find a way to sign a top of the rotation starter when ready to compete. Folty has potential to be a decent 2/3 type and the rest (ones available in the next 3 years) will be lucky to be middle of the rotation starters.
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Newcomb and Sims have TOR stuff so I don't see how they will be "lucky" to be middle of the rotation starters.
 
zbhargrove said:
Newcomb and Sims have TOR stuff so I don't see how they will be "lucky" to be middle of the rotation starters.
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Sean Newcomb is 23 in AA witha 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and barely averaging 2:1 K/BB.

Lucas Sims is 22 in AAA (good age) with a 7.56 ERA. His career ERA is 3.88 in the minors (young for his level). He's currently averaging about 6 walks per 9 and less than 2 K:BB.

Can anyone really say they wouldn't take a middle of the rotation starter from these guys based on their bodies of work? What are the odds either become TOR starters?
 
gilesfan said:
Sean Newcomb is 23 in AA witha 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and barely averaging 2:1 K/BB.

Lucas Sims is 22 in AAA (good age) with a 7.56 ERA. His career ERA is 3.88 in the minors (young for his level). He's currently averaging about 6 walks per 9 and less than 2 K:BB.

Can anyone really say they wouldn't take a middle of the rotation starter from these guys based on their bodies of work? What are the odds either become TOR starters?
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We're talking about ceilings here. Are the odds low that they'll reach that ceiling? Sure. But it also shouldn't be a complete surprise if they do considering the raw talent they possess.
 
gilesfan said:
Sean Newcomb is 23 in AA witha 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and barely averaging 2:1 K/BB.

Lucas Sims is 22 in AAA (good age) with a 7.56 ERA. His career ERA is 3.88 in the minors (young for his level). He's currently averaging about 6 walks per 9 and less than 2 K:BB.

Can anyone really say they wouldn't take a middle of the rotation starter from these guys based on their bodies of work? What are the odds either become TOR starters?
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Newcomb is also 6'5" 240, throws in the mid 90's, strikes out 10 per 9, and never gives up homeruns. He may not ever harness his BB problem, but he absolutely has that ceiling.

You can say "what are the odds?" about every single pitcher in the minor leagues and it's always going to be less than fifty percent. That doesn't mean you should always trade them.
 
i think allard and soroka are the guys in our system with the best chances to be aces...i think they'll move fast...maybe get to the majors in the second half of 2018...those two are the pitching equivalent of heyward and freeman when they were coming up
 
chop2chip said:
Newcomb is also 6'5" 240, throws in the mid 90's, strikes out 10 per 9, and never gives up homeruns. He may not ever harness his BB problem, but he absolutely has that ceiling.

You can say "what are the odds?" about every single pitcher in the minor leagues and it's always going to be less than fifty percent. That doesn't mean you should always trade them.
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The odds of these two becoming TOR starters are extremely low. Lower than top prospects today, no? Im saying that we don't have much of a likelihood of having a TOR in the system in the next 3 years.

If the guys just had issues with wildness, you can hope they harness it. But, when they are getting lit up by minor league hitters, it's not a good thing.
 
gilesfan said:
The odds of these two becoming TOR starters are extremely low. Lower than top prospects today, no? Im saying that we don't have much of a likelihood of having a TOR in the system in the next 3 years.

If the guys just had issues with wildness, you can hope they harness it. But, when they are getting lit up by minor league hitters, it's not a good thing.
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Then it becomes an argument of value. Would I trade Newcomb and /or Sims for a TOR pitcher? Yes. Would I trade them for a MOR pitcher? Depends. I'm telling you that I wouldn't deal either for a Matt Moore type.

I like Newcomb much more than I do Sims. If you look at Newcomb's numbers you'll see that he's not getting lit up by minor league hitters. He has a 3.31 FIP which is good.

For comparison's sake, Giolito (who is awesome) has a 3.30 FIP with similar strikeout and walks numbers in AA. I don't know where the narrative that Newcomb is mediocre started, but it's simply not true.
 
chop2chip said:
Then it becomes an argument of value. Would I trade Newcomb and /or Sims for a TOR pitcher? Yes. Would I trade them for a MOR pitcher? Depends. I'm telling you that I wouldn't deal either for a Matt Moore type.

I like Newcomb much more than I do Sims. If you look at Newcomb's numbers you'll see that he's not getting lit up by minor league hitters. He has a 3.31 FIP which is good.

For comparison's sake, Giolito (who is awesome) has a 3.30 FIP with similar strikeout and walks numbers in AA. I don't know where the narrative that Newcomb is mediocre started, but it's simply not true.
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Thank you for making the Giolito comparison, that's where I was gonna go.

If Newcomb is getting lit up by minor league hitters, then so is Giolito. If Newcomb's WHIP and K/BB are reasons for concern, then so are Giolito's. But I bet we get wildly different predictions for them...
 
Also, just as an aside, the Nats are really stupid for calling Giolito up. He is nowhere near ready for the majors.
 
gilesfan said:
Sean Newcomb is 23 in AA witha 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and barely averaging 2:1 K/BB.

Lucas Sims is 22 in AAA (good age) with a 7.56 ERA. His career ERA is 3.88 in the minors (young for his level). He's currently averaging about 6 walks per 9 and less than 2 K:BB.

Can anyone really say they wouldn't take a middle of the rotation starter from these guys based on their bodies of work? What are the odds either become TOR starters?
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Newcomb isn't getting lit up... He just has control issues that's messing up his numbers. He's been absolutely dominant when he's not walking guys as evident buy his FIP. Sims is not in AAA... He's in AA... He's dominating AA, completely. At a good age. He made some starts in AAA and had issues there but to say he doesn't have much potential because he struggles for his first handful of starts in AAA is just plain silly. You said they'd be lucky to be middle of the rotation starters. With their raw stuff, they would be "lucky" to be TOR starters as their ceiling... There's really no argument there about their raw stuff. But I know they aren't quite Nationals material. Oh wait, Giolito has basically the same FIP as Newcomb...whoops.
 
Newcomb is doing well. K/9 is still over 9 and his walk rate and hr rate has decreased this season. His LOB% is 69% which seems poor. Probably a combo of bad luck with men on base and a poor pen.
 
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