I'm arguing that picks 3-10 or so aren't all that different in value, and it's all a matter of perspective and scouting, so no, they wouldn't convince me.
- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion
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I'm arguing that picks 3-10 or so aren't all that different in value, and it's all a matter of perspective and scouting, so no, they wouldn't convince me.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If you exclude picks 1 and 2 and the data after the tenth round then I would have to say your observation is correct.
But I would have to characterize what you're doing as cherry picking or more formally the fallacy of incomplete evidence, which is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.
I say this because you are throwing out data (rounds 1-2 and rounds after 10) that are likely to be useful in predicting the values of picks 3-10.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The 5th, 7th, 9th, and 10th picks in the draft are all higher than the 3rd, 4th, and 6th picks (and generally speaking much higher, on the scale of 1.5 WAR higher), with only the 8th pick being the outlier, and even the eighth pick is higher than the 3rd pick. The math from your link and graph doesn't support what you just said in the slightest.
If your belief that those individual observations hold more value than the fitted curve had a shred of validity folks would be lining up to trade pick 3 for pick 10. Now I know those picks are not tradeable so we can only guess as to what would happen in a world in which the picks could be traded. Suffice it to say I'm comfortable in my belief that no one would seriously contemplate trading a #3 for a #10 based upon the data.
We could include data up through pick 20 (almost every pick from 11-20 is higher than the 3rd pick as well in value) and it wouldn't change my general point at all , there just isn't that much difference between the player talent after the first couple until you get to the middle of the first round, it comes down more to effort, scouting, and injury luck. The data would be bouncing up and down all over the place. After the middle of the first round, sure, the curve starts to steadily go down, much like the graph in your link shows. But that has little to do with what we were discussing earlier in this thread, which was your comment that the early picks are better value on average due to being earlier picks and therefore the stronger picks. The MLB draft really isn't that much different than the NBA draft in that respect, there are just way more hits past the first round in MLB.
IMO the entire draft the BPA mantra is a relative crock of BS. There is very little difference in the success levels of a pitcher that is ranked the 3rd best prospect and an OF who is ranked the 7th best prospect.
And I'm not sure how data for later picks has any bearing on the early picks, the talent drop off is steep after a certain point.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Baseball America's first mock draft will be coming this week, but going back to the page one "wish list," here are where players are currently ranked by BBA:
Jason Groome (1st, and apparently by some significant margin)
Blake Rutherford (3rd)
Delvin Perez (5th)
A.J. Puk (6th)
Corey Ray (7th)
Kyle Lewis (8th)
Alex Hansen (9th)
Jason Groome (1st, and apparently by some significant margin)
Blake Rutherford (3rd)
Delvin Perez (5th)
A.J. Puk (6th)
Corey Ray (7th)
Kyle Lewis (8th)
Alex Hansen (9th)
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I don't see any way the Phils don't go pitching. They need it badly.
striker42
Well-known member
Me either. Unless something crazy happens they'll go either Groome or Puk with that first pick. I think there's a good chance the Reds go pitching as well. I can't see a situation were a top bat isn't available for us.
striker42
Well-known member
Update on the college OFs:
Lewis is now slashing .444/.563/.873 with 7 HRs, 16 BBs, and 8 Ks in 63 ABs over 16 games.
Ray is currently slashing .377/.452/.738 with 5 HRs, 9 BBs, and 6 Ks in 61 ABs over 15 games. He also has an impressive 20 SBs in 22 attempts.
I really go back and forth on these two. Lewis is a right handed masher with a more advanced approach. However, while Ray doesn't look to have as much power as the larger Lewis, he does have excellent speed to go with decent power of his own. If both guys reach their potential, Lewis probably fits our team better but his lower level of competition makes him a bit more of a risk.
Lewis is now slashing .444/.563/.873 with 7 HRs, 16 BBs, and 8 Ks in 63 ABs over 16 games.
Ray is currently slashing .377/.452/.738 with 5 HRs, 9 BBs, and 6 Ks in 61 ABs over 15 games. He also has an impressive 20 SBs in 22 attempts.
I really go back and forth on these two. Lewis is a right handed masher with a more advanced approach. However, while Ray doesn't look to have as much power as the larger Lewis, he does have excellent speed to go with decent power of his own. If both guys reach their potential, Lewis probably fits our team better but his lower level of competition makes him a bit more of a risk.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I know it will probably change 1000 times before the draft with players performances up and down, but I tend to agree with you at this juncture. Our team is already to setup to have quite a bit of speed for a long long time if Albies /Smith/Swanson work out, and if we keep Inciarte for a while. Lewis looks like the more classic power bat we really need. Plus I like seeing his patience thus far... 16/8 BB/K over 16 games is great to see. Really interested to see what Rutherford does this year.
Lewis didn't play baseball until his junior year of HS. So his freshman year at Mercer, he barely played. Then last year he started and played really well, OPS'd at 1.100. Then he was the top prospect in the Cape Cod League, followed by him absolutely murdering the ball this year. His trajectory is almost a straight line going up, and I think his ceiling is incredibly high.
He plays at Kennesaw State this weekend, so I plan to get there for at least one game to see him.
He plays at Kennesaw State this weekend, so I plan to get there for at least one game to see him.
striker42
Well-known member
His ceiling is huge! He's got a frame that could easily handle a good bit of additional muscle. Once he starts a professional conditioning plan he could turn into a monster. Right handed JHey with less speed (and therefore defense) but more power.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Seems like all of the people I've read that are major site writers are saying that there isn't a college bat worth considering in the top 5. I was think Coppy was saying college bat b/c he was being honest but that there wasn't a good option unless someone signs way below slot so we can go above slot with our other high picks.
striker42
Well-known member
Everywhere I've seen has several college players in the top 10 and usually any of the top 10 have a potential to go top 5.
BA has Senzel, Ray, and Lewis in their top 10. Senzel is ranked number 2.
Fangraphs currently has Ray 4th and Buddy Reed 5th. My guess is Lewis jumps into the top 10 with the next update.
MLB.com has Ray ranked 5th, Reed ranked 6th, Lewis ranked 8th, and Bryan Williams from Vandy ranked 9th.
So there are definitely college hitters who are worthy of a top 5 pick.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
For those of you who are following these things, Puk has not had a particularly impressive start to the season. The ERA is still fine because of a bunch of unearned runs, and the K/9 is still over 9, but he's failed to show any dominance against some fairly lax competition so far.
On the other hand, if you want to think ahead to the 2017 draft for some reason, let me direct your attention to Alex Faedo, a 6'5 righty with a 36 strikeouts in 25 1/3 IP and a .136 BAA.
On the other hand, if you want to think ahead to the 2017 draft for some reason, let me direct your attention to Alex Faedo, a 6'5 righty with a 36 strikeouts in 25 1/3 IP and a .136 BAA.
diamondsyd
Creepy Lurking Stalker
Both Friday and Saturday games are on ESPN3 this weekend.
Nice. I'll still probably go, it's just down the road from me.
Puk has really never shown any sort of dominance outside of that short stretch at the end of last year. I really want us to go OF bat in this draft, but I wouldn't have any issues with Groome if he somehow dropped to us (fat chance). I don't want us touching Puk or Hansen with a ten foot pole however.
That K/BB ratio on Faedo so far is pretty awesome.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
My only concern with Lewis is if he's an "athlete playing baseball" more than a "baseball player with athleticism." I honestly don't know the answer, but my guess is scouts do (or will be able to discern that). If for real, he checks a lot of boxes.
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