- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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The one hesitation I had with Lewis coming into this year was his BB and K rates. Only 19 BB and 41 K last year. This year, so far, he's at 27 BB and 15 K. His K-rate has dropped about 4 points while his BB rate has jumped about 15. So I really have no more questions about him. Sure, he's a little more raw than some 3rd-year college players, and sure, his competition isn't phenomenal...but his lack of experience can actually work in his favor, since he's already crushing college pitching and his ceiling is through the roof. And again, Kris Bryant didn't play great competition, either. If you're OPSing at almost 1.500, it doesn't really matter what your competition is.

I mean, it's nearly halfway through the year and he's hitting .457.
 
Lewis checks so many boxes for us. Power potential? Check. Right handed? Check. College bat? Check. Local boy? Check.

And it really doesn't matter how bad Lewis' competition is. An OPS approaching 1.600, 11 HRs, and almost twice as many BBs as Ks is ridiculous. He's averaging a HR about every 8.5 ABs. Just for comparison, over 550 ABs he'd get in a major league season, that would equate to 64 HRs. You could cut his HR rate in half and he'd still be a 30 HR guy at the major league level!
 
Tapate50 said:
I wouldn't totally discount his competition level. It isn't SEC or ACC but it isn't some scrub competition.
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Mercer is in NCAA Division 1 for baseball and played in the 2015 national tournament. I don't imagine Lewis faces consistently higher levels of competition, but it's not like he's playing D2 ball.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Seems like people are taking college stats too seriously.
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The idea of a guy putting up a similar HR rate in the majors is kind of crazy, but the numbers are still useful in comparing to past college hitters. And I'm not just pumped about Lewis because of his college numbers. I'm pumped about the fact that they keep improving, along with his obvious tools.
 
smootness said:
The idea of a guy putting up a similar HR rate in the majors is kind of crazy, but the numbers are still useful in comparing to past college hitters. And I'm not just pumped about Lewis because of his college numbers. I'm pumped about the fact that they keep improving, along with his obvious tools.
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There's almost no way he puts up a similar HR rate in the majors. I compared it to the majors to just show how crazy his HR rate is. His numbers are stupid good.
 
striker42 said:
There's almost no way he puts up a similar HR rate in the majors. I compared it to the majors to just show how crazy his HR rate is. His numbers are stupid good.
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Gotcha. Yeah, it's not quite the HR rate Kris Bryant put up as a junior, but it's elite.
 
The competition he faces isn't "awful", it's just not consistently good - which is why it's so hard to get a read on some of these guys. Greg Holland (10th Rounder) and Tyler White (33rd Rounder) played in the Southern Conference and are fellow Catamounts.

FWIW, this isn't a particularly strong year for the conference, which complicates things even further. Mercer plays in Cullowhee at the end of next month (4/29 - 5/1 happens to be WCU Baseball Alumni Weekend as well) and I'm going to try to go over for all three games to at least put my eyes on him, but I'm still going to wonder whether he's not going to be a reach given the lack of competition. I'm sure our scouts will have a much better feel for him than most other teams' scouts will, and will always defer to them, but will admit that a future OF with Mallex' speed and a lefty-righty duo of Davidson and Lewis as boppers is at least intriguing.
 
There are a couple things that make me feel ok about his level of competition. The first is that Kris Bryant played in a similarly weak conference, and Lewis is actually putting up better overall numbers so far this year than Bryant did as a junior. The second is that Lewis played really well in the Cape Cod league last summer and was named the top prospect there.

His performance is what you would expect from an elite prospect playing in the Southern Conference, and again, his tools back up the idea that he is just that. And there is a lack of truly elite hitting talent in this draft, so I'm willing to roll with the guy with probably the highest ceiling who is shredding Division 1 baseball, no matter the conference he plays in. I mean, it's not as though there are multiple SoCon players putting up numbers like Lewis is.
 
smootness said:
There are a couple things that make me feel ok about his level of competition. The first is that Kris Bryant played in a similarly weak conference, and Lewis is actually putting up better overall numbers so far this year than Bryant did as a junior. The second is that Lewis played really well in the Cape Cod league last summer and was named the top prospect there.

His performance is what you would expect from an elite prospect playing in the Southern Conference, and again, his tools back up the idea that he is just that. And there is a lack of truly elite hitting talent in this draft, so I'm willing to roll with the guy with probably the highest ceiling who is shredding Division 1 baseball, no matter the conference he plays in. I mean, it's not as though there are multiple SoCon players putting up numbers like Lewis is.
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The Cape Cod league stuff really is a big mark in his favor. It showed he can hang with top players and that he's not an aluminum bat wonder.
 
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