- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

[striker42]

And I'm just asking - why? How often have you seen him play? Based on what reports or information?

The question isn't meant to be a shot at you or anyone else in any way. I'm just asking if that's just a feeling from the reports you've read. There's nothing wrong with that if that's the case - we're all fans and everybody has their favorite players/prospects/etc..

Lewis is hot right now. He's a local kid. There are plenty of reasons to like him and want the Braves to draft him. I personally prefer to wait until the Braves' scouts have had time to see plenty of all the kids the team might be targeting and will be convinced that their reasoning for deciding on whomever they pick in June will be made for the right reasons and not influenced by a hot streak in March (although that will certainly influence the decision as well).

"“He’s super talented. He can run, hit, close on balls in the outfield, and the best part about him is that he’s a great, great kid,” Nicholson said. “He’s very smart at the plate as well, and he’s just a worker. He was one of those kids that was up at the ballpark everyday at 9 a.m., doing early work and just getting a lot of work in. He wants to get better in all aspects of the game, and he makes it pretty apparent."

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/mercers-lewis-has-surge-of-the-summer/

I like hearing a kid is showing up at 9 AM to get extra work in and that he's driven to improve his game. That helps a lot in a player actually reaching their potential and avoiding years of struggles. So my feeling is that, assuming the talent is really there, he seems to have intangibles it takes to convert talent into success.

 

[Enscheff]

Same comp with Jeff Ellis' at Scout. I'd be fine with a Dye clone and it's important to remember that it took awhile for Dye to reach his potential.

Dye's career was actually very good. I think people forget he came up as a 22 year old and put up a .763 OPS over 300 PAs with 12 HRs. He was then traded to KC where he struggled a bit in a part time role.

However, from the ages of 25-35 he was pretty much an .850 OPS and 30 HR force in the middle of the lineup. If the Braves take Lewis at #3 and he turns into Dye from the ages of 25-35, I think we would all be very pleased with that pick.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Dye's career was actually very good. I think people forget he came up as a 22 year old and put up a .763 OPS over 300 PAs with 12 HRs. He was then traded to KC where he struggled a bit in a part time role.

However, from the ages of 25-35 he was pretty much an .850 OPS and 30 HR force in the middle of the lineup. If the Braves take Lewis at #3 and he turns into Dye from the ages of 25-35, I think we would all be very pleased with that pick.

I forgot how good his career was. 325 HRs... very surprised.. career .826 OPS..

 

[nsacpi]

I forgot how good his career was. 325 HRs... very surprised.. career .826 OPS..

He had a power surge in his 30s. Possibly stadium related.

 

[clvclv]

"“He’s super talented. He can run, hit, close on balls in the outfield, and the best part about him is that he’s a great, great kid,” Nicholson said. “He’s very smart at the plate as well, and he’s just a worker. He was one of those kids that was up at the ballpark everyday at 9 a.m., doing early work and just getting a lot of work in. He wants to get better in all aspects of the game, and he makes it pretty apparent."

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/mercers-lewis-has-surge-of-the-summer/

I like hearing a kid is showing up at 9 AM to get extra work in and that he's driven to improve his game. That helps a lot in a player actually reaching their potential and avoiding years of struggles. So my feeling is that, assuming the talent is really there, he seems to have intangibles it takes to convert talent into success.

That's all I was asking (and nice to read as well) - just a little more of an explanation about what and where the info that was behind your feeling is coming from. We're all (myself certainly included) guilty of saying things and assuming everyone else saw or read the same things we read. I'm sure some folks here automatically assume that posters are getting their information from other sources, but I don't automatically do that. I always hope that someone's seen someone play or has first-hand knowledge that we might not find somewhere else (went to school with or played against a player, talked directly to a scout at a game, dates a sister, whatever). Opinions and "feelings" are fine, and everyone definitely ought to feel free to voice theirs - I just usually try to go out of my way to explain when something I post is simply my opinion (which you weren't).

 

[Enscheff]

"“He’s super talented. He can run, hit, close on balls in the outfield, and the best part about him is that he’s a great, great kid,” Nicholson said. “He’s very smart at the plate as well, and he’s just a worker. He was one of those kids that was up at the ballpark everyday at 9 a.m., doing early work and just getting a lot of work in. He wants to get better in all aspects of the game, and he makes it pretty apparent."

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/mercers-lewis-has-surge-of-the-summer/

I like hearing a kid is showing up at 9 AM to get extra work in and that he's driven to improve his game. That helps a lot in a player actually reaching their potential and avoiding years of struggles. So my feeling is that, assuming the talent is really there, he seems to have intangibles it takes to convert talent into success.

Great article. Unlike kids that focus on baseball 12 months a year, Lewis only "started trying at this baseball thing" as a junior in high school. He played so little baseball he didn't even play the OF...they just stuck him at 1B because he was tall. He was probably the typical football/wrestler/basketball or whatever other primary sport player that just happened to play on the baseball team because he was athletic and wanted something to do during Spring.

Then he decides to focus on "this baseball thing" and turns into one of the best collegiate hitters over the course of 2-3 years. Most elite collegiate hitters have been focusing on baseball for a decade by the time they reach college. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he has more room to grow than any other college hitter in the draft, and he is already pretty damn good.

 

[CJ9]

New Baseball America mock has Groome 1, Senzel 2 and us taking Riley Pint 3. Ray went 6, Lewis went 8.

 

[50PoundHead]

Just to clarify, in Jeff Ellis' piece, he was looking for a player who was at least 6-3 and weighed less than 215 pounds. He came up with Dye. I'm surprised he didn't see Kelly was in the same height/weight range. That is why I mentioned Kelly, who although regressing his junior year was still considered a top drawer prospect. As per usual, I'll trust the scouts, but I sure hope we don't go as heavily with pitchers this year as we did last year.

 

[smootness]

Just to clarify, in Jeff Ellis' piece, he was looking for a player who was at least 6-3 and weighed less than 215 pounds. He came up with Dye. I'm surprised he didn't see Kelly was in the same height/weight range. That is why I mentioned Kelly, who although regressing his junior year was still considered a top drawer prospect. As per usual, I'll trust the scouts, but I sure hope we don't go as heavily with pitchers this year as we did last year.

He was talking about his potential, so it would make sense to choose a guy who was actually successful in the majors.

 

[clvclv]

Another thing to consider...

While several around here always scoff at the thought, we don't "know" that the plan doesn't call for splurging on a middle-of-the-order bat next winter (or even more likely for 2018). Cespedes can opt-out this winter to join Bautista and Carlos Gomez as options next winter and if they really are considering trying to sign another franchise cornerstone-type player, you're looking at Machado and Donaldson the following year. We all know the Braves aren't likely ever going to be able to take the chance on signing an "Ace" through free-agency - tying up that big a percentage of payroll in a player who's "one pitch away" from completely crippling you financially is a huge gamble to take with our current ownership situation - so if you believe we have to develop that guy from within, it certainly makes sense to take a shot at two more of those kinds of arms with high picks in the next two drafts.

 

[cajunrevenge]

New Baseball America mock has Groome 1, Senzel 2 and us taking Riley Pint 3. Ray went 6, Lewis went 8.

At this point I would rank them Groome/Pint/Perez in terms of who I want the Braves to draft. I would be okay with Rutherford/Ray/Lewis/Moniak if they were willing to take well underslot deals.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

At this point I would rank them Groome/Pint/Perez in terms of who I want the Braves to draft. I would be okay with Rutherford/Ray/Lewis/Moniak if they were willing to take well underslot deals.

Pint/Puk/Hansen all scare me with their control issues. Pint has the most potential, but a kid throwing that hard is a big risk IMO.. I think I am more on board with Groome/Blake/Lewis/Ray/Senzel as a #3 pick..

 

[Tapate50]

Rutherford Scouting report from FG (With video):

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blake-rutherford-shows-tools-of-a-top-five-draft-pick/

 

[Hudson2]

I like Rutherford. I guess it just depends on if the FO wants to wait 3 years to develop an outfielder.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Pint/Puk/Hansen all scare me with their control issues. Pint has the most potential, but a kid throwing that hard is a big risk IMO.. I think I am more on board with Groome/Blake/Lewis/Ray/Senzel as a #3 pick..

I am much more forgiving of control problems in HS prospects than I am college pitchers. Pint is likely over throwing to impress scouts. The Braves are going to tell him to dial it down a notch for control. He doesnt need to throw 100 mph to get hitters out. 93-94 would be fine.

 

[zbhargrove]

At this point I would rank them Groome/Pint/Perez in terms of who I want the Braves to draft. I would be okay with Rutherford/Ray/Lewis/Moniak if they were willing to take well underslot deals.

I doubt you're going to see Rutherford or Lewis take underslot deals... they are both big time prospects who are easily top 5 value picks. I don't really want anything to do with Pint or Perez if one of those two are available. The only one you mentioned that would make me comfortable is Groome and I doubt we have a shot there.

 

[praeceps93]

I doubt you're going to see Rutherford or Lewis take underslot deals... they are both big time prospects who are easily top 5 value picks. I don't really want anything to do with Pint or Perez if one of those two are available. The only one you mentioned that would make me comfortable is Groome and I doubt we have a shot there.

I think Lewis would sign pretty well underslot. Not ridiculously low, but still underslot.

 

[zbhargrove]

I think Lewis would sign pretty well underslot. Not ridiculously low, but still underslot.

Not if he keeps his pace up...

 

[Hudson2]

From today's Keith Law Chat

Pig Bodine:*
BA mock draft has Riley Pint to Braves….would he be best player available at #3, or do you think they go college bat like Ray if available?
Klaw:*
I don’t do mocks this early for this very reason – you can’t base it on any actual insight on teams and preferences. I don’t think there’s any chance they take a very high-risk high school arm at 3, for example.

Mike:*
Keith … If not Groome at 1.1, then who do the Phillies settle for ?
Klaw:*
Your mistake is saying “settle.” Why would you assume Groome is the top prospect when so many folks, myself included, believe that this class lacks a clear 1-1 guy? I’d take Corey Ray there right now, although I think Blake Rutherford, Delvin Perez, and perhaps even Braxton Garrett could make cases to go that high.

Matt:*
I know you firmly believe the Phillies won’t take groome at one, but why? I’ve seen plenty of credible people post mock drafts saying it will happen. Why is your opinion so strong that they won’t ?
Klaw:*
Because I base my opinions on industry gossip and knowledge of team strategies and preferences. This is why I wait to do mocks – until then, most of what I know is negative (“We won’t take Joey Bagodonuts there, no shot”) and not enough is positive.

If Groome does make it to the braves at 3, I really hope they pick him.

 

[CJ9]

Not if he keeps his pace up...

I know the stats are nice and everyone likes him in this thread, but I haven't seen a single draft analyst project him as a top-three pick. I'm not opposed to taking him, but I think some of the love in this thread has gotten a little over the top.