- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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bravescountry said:
I personally like Rutherford more than Lewis.

But Lewis is a close 3rd (Groome is my number 1 like he is for most).

I'd love if we can underslot Lewis at #3 (for around $4 million) and then sign Benson or Rutherford at #40 for around $4 million.
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Let's just assume that the BA rankings are how every team on the board has the players ranked, and let's further assume that each player is "worth" the associated draft slot for that ranking. Finally, for simplicity, let's only talk about the money the Braves have for picks 3, 40 and 44 plus the 5% they can go over without any non-monetary penalty...a total value of right around $10m.

Lewis is a college guy who "should" be available under slot, and as the #8 ranked guy "should" cost $3.6M to sign. Last year, top college guys like Swanson and Bregman signed for $2m-$2.5m under slot. The slot value for the #3 pick this year is $6.5m, so let's peg Lewis at $4m to sign.

The Braves should also be able to draft a college senior at 44 under the slot value of $1.4m to save another few hundred thousand. That leaves the Braves with $4.5m-$5m to throw at the #40 pick. According to the draft slot values, that is enough cash to sign another top-5 talent.

So here's how it could be played for a high school guy like Josh Lowe (just an example):

He is currently ranked #11, with an assigned pool slot of $3.3m. If he follows the Daz Cameron script and tells teams he will go to college unless someone offers him $5m, no team that picks after #4 will have a slot value high enough to sign him. Since no team will draft a high school player ranked #11 in the top 5, he will drop. Then the Braves scoop him up at #40, and throw all their remaining draft bonus at him to sign him over slot.

With that strategy the Braves sign the #8 and #11 players in the draft. College guy under slot with the early pick, high school guy over slot with the later pick.
 
I like that idea a lot. My only question is the Phillies and Reds. Do they have any picks between 3 and 40, and couldn't they steal him from us if so?
 
CJ9 said:
I like that idea a lot. My only question is the Phillies and Reds. Do they have any picks between 3 and 40, and couldn't they steal him from us if so?
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Phils pick 1 and 42, so while they have a larger pool than the Braves, the Braves pick a 2nd time before the Phils 2nd pick.

The Reds pick at 2, 35 and 43. They are positioned to do do exactly what I suggested the Braves do, but they have better picks AND more money to execute the strategy. So yes, the Reds could really mess up the Braves plan.
 
I don't know why Lewis would agree to sign for under slot. He certainly lacks the leverage of a high school player, but I don't think anyone in the top five is going to give a huge discount. I think it would be more likely that they'd draft a college senior in the second or third round and save money there like the Reds did with Rainey last draft. I've been wrong before and would love to be wrong here.
 
50PoundHead said:
I don't know why Lewis would agree to sign for under slot. He certainly lacks the leverage of a high school player, but I don't think anyone in the top five is going to give a huge discount. I've been wrong before and would love to be wrong here.
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Well, he just said Swanson and Bregman both signed between $2-2.5 million under slot. At 1 and 2.
 
CJ9 said:
I like that idea a lot. My only question is the Phillies and Reds. Do they have any picks between 3 and 40, and couldn't they steal him from us if so?
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also the Padres, Cards or Nats could. They each have back to back picks in the 25 - 35 pick range. slotting between 4 million to 4.5 million.

So the Padres would take a guy at #8 that would consume all or most of the 3.6 million. Then at #24 they could over slot a guy for 4.3 million, then just burn the #25 pick on a guy they would never sign so they get that pick in next years draft. Or the Gnats could do something similar.. but instead of taking our guy to sign at #28.. they over slot someone they want and then burn #29 with Josh Lowe just to be a dick to us. they again know they will never sign him.. so they blocked us and got another 1st round pick next year....

This is why the QO system needs to be changed and needs to be change quickly..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
also the Padres, Cards or Nats could. They each have back to back picks in the 25 - 35 pick range. slotting between 4 million to 4.5 million.

So the Padres would take a guy at #8 that would consume all or most of the 3.6 million. Then at #24 they could over slot a guy for 4.3 million, then just burn the #25 pick on a guy they would never sign so they get that pick in next years draft. Or the Gnats could do something similar.. but instead of taking our guy to sign at #28.. they over slot someone they want and then burn #29 with Josh Lowe just to be a dick to us. they again know they will never sign him.. so they blocked us and got another 1st round pick next year....

This is why the QO system needs to be changed and needs to be change quickly..
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The team must sign the player to still have his slot money count towards their pool.

The Astros screwed that up in 2014 when they failed to sign Aiken after taking him #1 and then didn't have enough cash in their bonus pool to pay Nix his over slot agreement.
 
Enscheff said:
The team must sign the player to still have his slot money count towards their pool.

The Astros screwed that up in 2014 when they failed to sign Aiken after taking him #1 and then didn't have enough cash in their bonus pool to pay Nix his over slot agreement.
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I completely forgot about that rule. carry on
 
Enscheff said:
The Astros took Bregman precisely so they had cash to also sign Daz. I'm not saying the Braves will do the same, but it is an interesting scenario to think about.
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Bregman is an outstanding prospect in his own right as well.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
Not sure if he has been mentioned, but I hope we look at Logan Ice for one of our top picks.
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Wow, thank you for bringing him up because I had never even heard of him.

.351/.484/.702 with 6 HR, 7 2B, and 4 3B as a catcher in the Pac-12. Also 23 BB and only 6(!) Ks in 126 PA. And Kendall Rogers, one of the best college writers out there, apparently called him an 'elite defensive catcher'. Why has this guy not flown up mock draft boards? It would be amazing if he was there at 40. But heck, if he's that good defensively, just take him at 3.
 
Enscheff said:
Phils pick 1 and 42, so while they have a larger pool than the Braves, the Braves pick a 2nd time before the Phils 2nd pick.

The Reds pick at 2, 35 and 43. They are positioned to do do exactly what I suggested the Braves do, but they have better picks AND more money to execute the strategy. So yes, the Reds could really mess up the Braves plan.
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The plan you're assuming they have in this case.

I still don't have the slightest clue what they might do - still a long time until Draft Day.
 
clvclv said:
The plan you're assuming they have in this case.

I still don't have the slightest clue what they might do - still a long time until Draft Day.
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True -- but don't doubt for a minute they don't already have a Big Board.
 
clvclv said:
The plan you're assuming they have in this case.

I still don't have the slightest clue what they might do - still a long time until Draft Day.
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I stated at least 5 times in my posts that it was just an interesting scenario based on past actions of teams like the Astros. Obviously nobody on these boards knows what the Braves plan is, so it goes without saying.

But by all means, go ahead and post another Strasburg to Atlanta "idea" rather than tossing around original ideas that actually have a greater than 0% chance of happening.
 
smootness said:
Wow, thank you for bringing him up because I had never even heard of him.

.351/.484/.702 with 6 HR, 7 2B, and 4 3B as a catcher in the Pac-12. Also 23 BB and only 6(!) Ks in 126 PA. And Kendall Rogers, one of the best college writers out there, apparently called him an 'elite defensive catcher'. Why has this guy not flown up mock draft boards? It would be amazing if he was there at 40. But heck, if he's that good defensively, just take him at 3.
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Kendall is alright if you can get past his fascination with Ole Miss.

This is from The Baseball Draft Report:

365/.460/.533 – 22 BB/5 K
.360/.483/.697 – 20 BB/5 K

Top is Matt Thaiss this year, bottom is Logan Ice so far. It’s no wonder that a friend of mine regularly refers to Ice as “Pacific NW Thaiss.” That sounds so made up, but it’s not. Anyway, Ice is a really good prospect. He’s received some national acclaim this season, yet still strikes me as one of the draft’s most underrated college bats. There are no questions about his defense behind the plate – coming into the year many considered him to be a catch-and-throw prospect with a bat that might relegate him to backup work – and his power, while maybe not .700 SLG real, is real. I don’t think a late-first round selection is unrealistic, but I’ll hedge and call him a potential huge value pick at any point after the draft’s first day. I can’t wait to start stacking the college catching board; my hunch is that prospect who comes in tenth or so would be a top three player in most classes. My only concern for Ice – a stretch, admittedly – is that teams will put off drafting college catchers early because of the belief that they can wait and still get a good one later.
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