The Braves absolutely need to add a couple college catchers since it is a very weak position in the organization. If they are trying to sign a guy under slot at 44 to save cash to pay someone over slot at 40, a college catcher would be an excellent choice at that pick.
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The Braves absolutely need to add a couple college catchers since it is a very weak position in the organization. If they are trying to sign a guy under slot at 44 to save cash to pay someone over slot at 40, a college catcher would be an excellent choice at that pick.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
The great thing about Ice is that we can break him down into two different players later, should we need to.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think the other players would pick on him. Plus, he'd probably melt in the Atlanta summer heat.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
you might slip up if you are thinking of taking Ice at #3.. but then again, he could be a diamond in the rough..
No problem. Just as you have none when you act like you know something someone else doesn't.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
I have admittedly not been a big fan of drafting college players high, but after looking at the college hitters that have gone in the top 10 since 2013, I may have to change my stance.
2013:
#2 Kris Bryant, Cubs (Major League -- .273/.365/.481, 28 HR, 615 MLB At Bats)
#6 Colin Moran, Astros (AAA -- .342/.395/.474)
#8 Hunter Dozier, Royals (AA -- .316/.435/.711, 4 HR, 38 AB)
2014:
#4 Kyle Schwarber, Cubs (Major League -- .242/.353/.479, 16 HR, 236 at bats)
#10 Michael Conforto, Mets (Major League -- .278/.351/.524, 11 HR, 212 at bats)
2015:
#1 Dansby Swanson, Braves (A+ -- .358/.433/.509, 53 AB)
#2 Alex Bregman, Astros (AA -- .395/.480/.767, 5 HR, 43 AB)
#7 Andre Benintendi, Red Sox (A+ -- .327/.390/.635, 4 2B, 6 3B, 52 AB)
#9 Ian Happ, Cubs (A+ -- .294/.390/.510, 2 HR, 51 AB)
2013:
#2 Kris Bryant, Cubs (Major League -- .273/.365/.481, 28 HR, 615 MLB At Bats)
#6 Colin Moran, Astros (AAA -- .342/.395/.474)
#8 Hunter Dozier, Royals (AA -- .316/.435/.711, 4 HR, 38 AB)
2014:
#4 Kyle Schwarber, Cubs (Major League -- .242/.353/.479, 16 HR, 236 at bats)
#10 Michael Conforto, Mets (Major League -- .278/.351/.524, 11 HR, 212 at bats)
2015:
#1 Dansby Swanson, Braves (A+ -- .358/.433/.509, 53 AB)
#2 Alex Bregman, Astros (AA -- .395/.480/.767, 5 HR, 43 AB)
#7 Andre Benintendi, Red Sox (A+ -- .327/.390/.635, 4 2B, 6 3B, 52 AB)
#9 Ian Happ, Cubs (A+ -- .294/.390/.510, 2 HR, 51 AB)
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Just to take the data back a few years, here are college hitters taken in the top 10:
2012: Zunino #3
2011: Rendon #6
2010: Christian Colon #4, Michael Choice #10
2009: Ackley #2, Tony Sanchez #4
2008: Pedro Alvarez #2, Posey #5, Yonder Alonso #7, Gordon Beckham #8, Jason Castro #10
Looking at the guys taken very high, there is some risk among college hitters. But there is risk with other groups: college pitchers, HS hitters, HS pitchers. If you make a similar list for those groups, there would be a significant number of busts.
Some notable busts in recent drafts taken in the top 5:
Dustin Ackley-C hitter
Donovan Tate--HS hitter
Tony Sanches-C hitter
Matt Hobgood--HS pitcher
Christian Colon-C hitter
Danny Hultzen-C pitcher
Dylan Bundy-HS pitcher
Bubba Starling-HS hitter
This is just from the list of top 5 picks from 2009-2011. Some were derailed by injuries, but that is part of the risk with prospects. A #3 pick is not guaranteed to be successful and at the very high end of the draft the risk among different classes of players appears to be similar. This is why I shake my head when I see preferences for a particular type of player. We need to pick the guy we think is the best with lots of weight given to that player's ceiling. Period. Full stop. The drafting game is hard enough without giving preference to a particular class of player.
Now in later points of the draft, the yield does seem to differ quite a bit by class of player. For example, in what I call the middle rounds (4-10), college pitchers appear to be significantly better bets than other groups.
Except I do know the Braves have never given out a FA contract over $75m. I also know there is a precedent set by the Astros for the draft strategy I suggested.
My draft idea is based on drawing logical conclusions from known data. Your Strasburg signing idea is based on unrealistic homerism. Big difference.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Good analysis KB21 and nsacpi.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Thanks. The next question is whether the top college bats available this year are as good as those bats.
Kris Bryant -- In three years in college, he hit .353/.486/.702 with 54 home runs.
Colin Moran -- In three years in college, he hit .346/.452/.531 with 25 home runs.
Hunter Dozier -- 3 years; .357/.428/.608, 32 home runs
Schwarber -- .341/.437/.607, 40 home runs
Conforto -- .340/.463/.557, 31 home runs
Swanson -- .330/.418/.541, 18 home runs
Bregman -- .337/.409/.514, 21 home runs
Benintendi -- .326/.431/.525, 21 home runs
Happ -- .338/.463/.532, 25 home runs
Kyle Lewis is hitting .369/.456/.668 with 32 home runs already in his career.
Cory Ray is hitting .327/.396/.562 with 23 home runs in his career.
Nick Senzel is hitting .329/.428/.494 with 10 home runs in his career.
It should be noted that Senzel's ISO has gone from .105 as a true freshman to .170 as a sophomore to .241 as a junior, so he has shown steady improvement in his extra base ability.
Kyle Lewis ISO has gone from .101 as a freshman to .310 as a sophomore and a ridiculous .407 as a junior.
bravescountry
Arizona Fall Leaguer
Just one thing to note is that Lewis plays in the EASIEST college league, so his stats are definitely going to be skewed and "bloated" due to easy competition.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Meh.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
So did Bryant
This is what I've been trying to say. At the very top of the draft, you usually have a few college players that are both surer things than the HS guys and also have ceilings just as high. If there is a legit college player at the top of the draft, they are usually better options than HS guys.
This. There's no doubt that it's something to consider for Lewis and that it represents a risk (and Max Pentecost failing to light the world on fire in short-season A-ball as a 21-year-old doesn't create a lot of confidence), but it also doesn't necessarily mean anything.
It's just about impossible to hit better than Lewis has so far in that league. So he's doing what an elite talent should do there. And again, he's getting much better at an extremely rapid pace. I don't mind if the Braves don't take him, but he's still who I'd prefer.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Dozier played in the Southland Conference and I don't think the competition there is any better than in the Southern Conference. Bryant's conference was nothing to write home about either. As we've learned with Olivera, basing decisions on workouts is a dicey proposition, so level of play has to be considered. But Lewis is truly dominating his league right now and not cruising along solely on his natural ability. While not quite the role of a die, this is an inexact science.
As for Max Pentecost, he's been injured (shoulder) so I don't know if his comparison to Lewis would hold. He didn't have great stats in rookie league/short-season A ball, but catching at the pro level is a lot different than catching at the college level so that probably took some adjusting.
As for Max Pentecost, he's been injured (shoulder) so I don't know if his comparison to Lewis would hold. He didn't have great stats in rookie league/short-season A ball, but catching at the pro level is a lot different than catching at the college level so that probably took some adjusting.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I thought I'd look at all Top 5 picks over the 2006-2010 period to assess trends and risks. It is not a huge sample, so if someone has the time and inclination to look at years further past it would be a great idea.
The 25 players in my sample broke down as follows: 9 college pitchers, 7 college hitters, 2 high school pitchers, 7 high school hitters. That in and of itself is interesting. It shows that teams do not shy away from college players when making very early picks. If there is a group that tends to be underrepresented within very early picks, it is high school pitchers.
Now lets look at the individual groups to see if we can say something about risk. I'll list the players by group.
College pitchers: Hochevar, Reynolds, Lincoln, Morrow, Price, Moskos, Matusz, Strasburg, Pomeranz
College hitters: Longoria, Wieters, Alvarez, Posey, Ackley, Tony Sanchez, Christian Colon
HS pitchers: Hobgood, Taillon
HS hitters: Moustakas, Vitters, Tim Beckham, Hosmer, Tate, Harper, Machado
Among college pitchers, I'd say five out of nine have been busts (Lincoln, Moskos, Reynolds, Pomeranz and Matusz)
Among college hitters, I would classify four out of seven as busts (Colon, Sanchez, Alvarez and Ackley).
Among HS pitchers, Hobgood is a bust, but Taillon is still regarded as a very good prospect even after TJ surgery.
Among HS hitters, three out of seven are busts (Beckham, Tate and Vitters).
So with just about every group, about half the picks are busts. Given the small sample size, that's about the most reasonable conclusion that can be reached. There is risk with every group when it comes to top 5 picks, and the risks do not seem to vary much by group.
In terms of upside, there have been stud college pitchers (Price, Strasburg), stud college hitters (Longoria, Posey) and stud HS hitters (Harper, Machado) in the sample. So both the upside and downside risk seem to be fairly evenly distributed.
I was curious about HS pitchers, so I looked at the number taken in 2001-2005 and 2011-2015. In 2001-2005, five out of the 25 were HS pitchers (Gruler, Lowen, Everts, Floyd and Mark Rogers). In 2011-2015, four out of 25 were HS pitchers (Aiken who did not sign, Kollek, Stewart, Bundy). So if you expand the sample to fifteen years, they are still somewhat underrepresented but not as much as my initial five year sample. The results look weak. So it would seem in terms of risk reward with Top 5 picks, HS hitters, college hitters and college pitchers are pretty similar. HS pitchers seem not to pan out as well and teams have responded by being a bit more careful about taking them with a Top 5 pick.
The 25 players in my sample broke down as follows: 9 college pitchers, 7 college hitters, 2 high school pitchers, 7 high school hitters. That in and of itself is interesting. It shows that teams do not shy away from college players when making very early picks. If there is a group that tends to be underrepresented within very early picks, it is high school pitchers.
Now lets look at the individual groups to see if we can say something about risk. I'll list the players by group.
College pitchers: Hochevar, Reynolds, Lincoln, Morrow, Price, Moskos, Matusz, Strasburg, Pomeranz
College hitters: Longoria, Wieters, Alvarez, Posey, Ackley, Tony Sanchez, Christian Colon
HS pitchers: Hobgood, Taillon
HS hitters: Moustakas, Vitters, Tim Beckham, Hosmer, Tate, Harper, Machado
Among college pitchers, I'd say five out of nine have been busts (Lincoln, Moskos, Reynolds, Pomeranz and Matusz)
Among college hitters, I would classify four out of seven as busts (Colon, Sanchez, Alvarez and Ackley).
Among HS pitchers, Hobgood is a bust, but Taillon is still regarded as a very good prospect even after TJ surgery.
Among HS hitters, three out of seven are busts (Beckham, Tate and Vitters).
So with just about every group, about half the picks are busts. Given the small sample size, that's about the most reasonable conclusion that can be reached. There is risk with every group when it comes to top 5 picks, and the risks do not seem to vary much by group.
In terms of upside, there have been stud college pitchers (Price, Strasburg), stud college hitters (Longoria, Posey) and stud HS hitters (Harper, Machado) in the sample. So both the upside and downside risk seem to be fairly evenly distributed.
I was curious about HS pitchers, so I looked at the number taken in 2001-2005 and 2011-2015. In 2001-2005, five out of the 25 were HS pitchers (Gruler, Lowen, Everts, Floyd and Mark Rogers). In 2011-2015, four out of 25 were HS pitchers (Aiken who did not sign, Kollek, Stewart, Bundy). So if you expand the sample to fifteen years, they are still somewhat underrepresented but not as much as my initial five year sample. The results look weak. So it would seem in terms of risk reward with Top 5 picks, HS hitters, college hitters and college pitchers are pretty similar. HS pitchers seem not to pan out as well and teams have responded by being a bit more careful about taking them with a Top 5 pick.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Are you defining bust in absolute or relative terms?
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