- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

[MadduxFanII]

As part of my continuing efforts to make every conversation about the one or two things I actually know about, there are a couple of slightly under-the-radar Gators I think we could find value in, either at 40 or maybe even in the second or third round.

Logan Shore is Florida's #1 starter, and he's been over-shadowed a bit by Puk, even though he's been better than Puk all three years the two have been on campus. He's kind of a classic excellent college #1 who doesn't necessarily excite scouts- sits around 90 with the fastball, good control and command, nothing all that impressive stuff-wise. But he's striking out more than a batter an inning, he's walked eight in 54 innings, he has an impeccable track record in arguably the toughest conference in college baseball and he's outrageously smart on the mound. You can see some Maddux in him if you squint, though that's true of pretty much every guy with his profile.

We might also do well to look at Dane Dunning in the third or fourth round. Inconsistent and frustrating his first two years, he's been incredibly effective as a swing man this year: striking out nearly 11.5 hitters per nine, a greater than 5-to-1 K/BB ratio, excellent ERA. Good frame (6-3, 205 pounds with lots of room to add mass), good stuff- low 90's fastball with sink and a sporadically effective slider.

Both offer different things we like as an organization: Dunning has the arm and the projectability, while Shore has the moxie and intellect. Shore might be gone by 40 (he's generally received late first round projections), but both could be nice additions and fast movers.

 

[50PoundHead]

Why would Alvarez be considered a bust, but not Hosmer or Moustakas?

I think guys like Tate and Vitters--for whatever reason--could be considered busts. But some of the guys were just over-drafted and have turned out to be contributors who were just over-drafted and whose subsequent value doesn't justify their draft status.

 

[nsacpi]

Why would Alvarez be considered a bust, but not Hosmer or Moustakas?

It was a close call with whether to label some of these players busts or not.

Pedro Alvarez career WAR is 5.9. Hosmer is 6.1, Moustakas is 9.1.

Alvarez has about 1 more year of service time than the other two. And he has a lower projection for 2016. You could argue either way as to whether he should be a bust while the other two are not. I'm comfortable with where I drew the line with respect to those three.

I don't think tinkering with the labeling of a couple players would alter my basic conclusions.

 

[nsacpi]

I think guys like Tate and Vitters--for whatever reason--could be considered busts. But some of the guys were just over-drafted and have turned out to be contributors who were just over-drafted and whose subsequent value doesn't justify their draft status.

There are busts and there are busts.

 

[nsacpi]

Are you defining bust in absolute or relative terms?

Roughly my dividing line is whether they produce 1 or more WAR per year in their first six years of service time. Obviously with someone like Taillon that is to be determined.

 

[Enscheff]

It was a close call with whether to label some of these players busts or not.

Pedro Alvarez career WAR is 5.9. Hosmer is 6.1, Moustakas is 9.1.

Alvarez has about 1 more year of service time than the other two. And he has a lower projection for 2016. You could argue either way as to whether he should be a bust while the other two are not. I'm comfortable with where I drew the line with respect to those three.

I don't think tinkering with the labeling of a couple players would alter my basic conclusions.

And Alvarez almost couldn't find a job before he turned 30, while Hosmer and Moustakas are still contributing to a playoff caliber ball club.

 

[Carp]

Why would Alvarez be considered a bust, but not Hosmer or Moustakas?

Alvarez has been in the league longer, and his recent production has been barely at replacement level.

Moosetacos would have been considered a bust before last year. But he was a 4+ WAR player last year.

Hosmer has been an above average player for some time now. He's had 2 bad seasons sandwiched in among 3 very good seasons.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Alvarez has been in the league longer, and his recent production has been barely at replacement level.

Moosetacos would have been considered a bust before last year. But he was a 4+ WAR player last year.

Hosmer has been an above average player for some time now. He's had 2 bad seasons sandwiched in among 3 very good seasons.

All three were rushed to the majors as unfinished products and have had varying levels of continued growth at the ML level. Alvarez hasn't improved at all really. He's the same free swinging, swing from the heels all the time guy that he was when he came up. Teams, especially those in the middle of long dry spells without the cash to supplement from the FA market, tend to rush guys which sometimes stunts or even ends their development. The Braves have done it with players.

Would Francouer have been a better player with a better career if he spent another couple of years getting the take sign from the dugout in the minor leagues, trying to develop his batting eye while teaching him that not every pitch is a pitch that you want to swing at? I would say without question. But, the Braves needed a RF, Frenchy came up and hit a HR and then another while he made the rounds of ML pitchers challenging him with fastballs down the middle (here it is, hit it if you can) only to have the pitchers adjust and Frenchy didn't. Next thing you know, Frenchy is a journeyman, bouncing from team to team, signing a make good contract. Once he came up and had his success, he was never going back to "learn" anything.

Now, I admit, that sometimes, these guys wouldn't develop anymore even if they spent 100 years in the minors. But, you have 6 years of control. I think the smart teams give it time to see if the light comes on.

 

[nsacpi]

Now, I admit, that sometimes, these guys wouldn't develop anymore even if they spent 100 years in the minors. But, you have 6 years of control. I think the smart teams give it time to see if the light comes on.

Yup. I'm hoping Mallex Smith doesn't spend the rest of the season in the majors.

 

[nsacpi]

Looking at the yield data from past drafts, here is a brief summary of how things shake out.

1) High First Round (top 5 picks): Risk-return is about the same for HS hitters, college hitters, and college pitchers. HS pitchers have not done as well as a group.

2) First Round after Top 5 (picks 6-30): We have done well here with HS pitchers--Wainwright, Sims, Soroka, Allard. Heyward was a good pick but in general we have missed quite often when taking HS hitters in this portion of the draft (Zapp, Cameron, Burrus, Cody Johnson).

3) Early picks after the first round (picks 31 through end of third round): Here we've done best with HS hitters and college pitchers. Historically, the Braves have taken a lot of HS pitchers in this part of the draft and the yield has been poor.

4) Middle part of the draft (rounds 4-10): College pitchers stand out as the best group here and the Braves took a bunch of them in this segment last year. We do worst with HS hitters in this segment.

5) Late rounds (round 11 onward): The yields are generally low here, but the data do not support the idea you should avoid HS players. I would advocate a 60-40 mix with slightly more emphasis on college players.

Guided by the above and other considerations and information here is how I would play this draft:

With our #1 pick (#3 overall) I would go with Delvin Perez

With the next two picks (#40 and #44) I would go with college pitchers

With our third round pick I would go with a HS hitter

With our seven picks from round 4 to 10, I would go for at least 3 college pitchers and no more than 1 HS hitter.

 

[KB21]

If you are interested, I think AJ Puk and Rober Tyler are facing one another tonight. You want to see some high impact fastballs? These two have them.

 

[jpx7]

As part of my continuing efforts to make every conversation about the one or two things I actually know about

Truly, an admirable lifelong avocation.

 

[MadduxFanII]

If you are interested, I think AJ Puk and Rober Tyler are facing one another tonight. You want to see some high impact fastballs? These two have them.

Came here to mention just this. Puk live right now on ESPNU.

 

[MadduxFanII]

Apparently every scout is at this Florida-Georgia game.

 

[MadduxFanII]

The Puk-Tyler match-up lived up to its billing. Puk struck out 10 in 6 2/3 IP, gave up a run and walked one. Retired 18 straight at one point. Had excellent command of all his pitches, and even flashed a decent change-up at a few points. Tyler's been arguably even more impressive, considering he's facing the much better team- big velocity, impeccable control of his secondary stuff.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

The Puk-Tyler match-up lived up to its billing. Puk struck out 10 in 6 2/3 IP, gave up a run and walked one. Retired 18 straight at one point. Had excellent command of all his pitches, and even flashed a decent change-up at few points. Tyler's been arguably even more impressive, considering he's facing the much better team- big velocity, impeccable control of his secondary stuff.

watched it on my computer.. very impressive. I think I liked Tyler better.. and Puk waters the grass, he spits so much..

 

[KB21]

Robert Tyler might have the best stuff of any pitcher in this draft if his coach doesn't cause his arm to fall off at some point this season. His command tonight was better than it has ever been.

 

[smootness]

Would Francouer have been a better player with a better career if he spent another couple of years getting the take sign from the dugout in the minor leagues, trying to develop his batting eye while teaching him that not every pitch is a pitch that you want to swing at?

This is the guy who asked why they don't put OBP on the scoreboard if it's so important. So I'm gonna go with no.

There's never an easy answer. Sometimes you rush a guy before he's fully ready, and sometimes you wait too long and you either lose some of a player's prime or he loses confidence. When a guy comes up quickly and ultimately disappoints, we assume it's because he was rushed. But we don't ever ask questions about whether a guy stayed down too long, which I think can also be a problem.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Theres a point in the minors where players arent going to get any better. In fact a lot of players get worse their second or third time around AAA because they start pressing to hopefully get called up. Andy Marte is a good example. Did a bunch of extra time in the minors help him? No, he got worse. If they kept Francouer down a few more years he probably would have flamed out at AAA. His best years were his first few years when he would have otherwise been in the minors supposedly learning more. The thing about Francoeur is that his aggressiveness was his strength and his weakness. He cant be more patient and still clobber the ball consistently. I think the only thing that would have helped Francoeur is a better hitting coach and a hitters park. If he came up with the Blue Jays or Rockies he would be an all star right now.

 

[nsacpi]

Spending a full season in AAA was good for Freddie Freeman. He was a mature hitter by the time we brought him up. I think for very highly rated prospects who are young for their level, there is much more danger and potential loss of value from rushing a player than potential loss from stagnation. We would have gotten more out of Heyward and Simmons if we had been a little more patient with them.