- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

[50PoundHead]

The thing that helped Francoeur more than anything else in my opinion is that it took a couple of years before the opponents figured out that he would swing at darn near anything which removed that pesky temptation to throw strikes. Scouts also figured out he had below average bat speed and was susceptible to hard stuff inside.

I don't think anything would have fixed Francoeur's penchant to swing. It seems that striking out was something he wanted to avoid and he would expand his zone and settle for weak contact. He has awesome plate coverage, especially off the outer half. That works in high school and the low minors, but as a player moves up the line it's hardly a formula for success. I've always believed that the bottom line on Francoeur is that he was an all-world high school athlete who never really learned how to play the game because he didn't really have to. When he had to change things up, it was too late. I agree that guys--especially hitters--don't work to correct things in AAA. Adjustments tend to take place in A ball.

All this said, I thought it was interesting to watch him go the opposite way against Wood the other night (as did Flowers). That was probably the result of some pretty good advanced scouting, but you still have to execute.

 

[Coach_Chris]

watched it on my computer.. very impressive. I think I liked Tyler better.. and Puk waters the grass, he spits so much..

Turner Field infield is way too soft already, so we should pass on him.

 

[skillet]

We had the worst record in baseball this spring, and so far after 15 games in this regular season, we also have the worst record. Between the 3rd pick this year, what we are reported to do in this international draft, and then possibly the #1 pick in the 2017 draft, we should be getting some serious young talent infusion soon to go along with our top 3 farm system. The future should be quite bright.

 

[nsacpi]

We had the worst record in baseball this spring, and so far after 15 games in this regular season, we also have the worst record. Between the 3rd pick this year, what we are reported to do in this international draft, and then possibly the #1 pick in the 2017 draft, we should be getting some serious young talent infusion soon to go along with our top 3 farm system. The future should be quite bright.

And if we are bad again in 2017, it will be even brighter...

 

[Tapate50]

Spending a full season in AAA was good for Freddie Freeman. He was a mature hitter by the time we brought him up. I think for very highly rated prospects who are young for their level, there is much more danger and potential loss of value from rushing a player than potential loss from stagnation. We would have gotten more out of Heyward and Simmons if we had been a little more patient with them.

I don't necessarily disagree, but the last statement is just thrown out there as fact yet there is just no way to know that.

 

[smootness]

We would have gotten more out of Heyward and Simmons if we had been a little more patient with them.

But there's no way to know this for sure. Heyward's problem, we found out, was that he had a hole in his swing. He wasn't ever able to correct it in the majors, so I'm just not sure he would have ever corrected it in the minors. And similar to Francouer, his best year was his first year, and he was instrumental in getting us to the playoffs that year. So I'm not going to say he should have stayed in the minors longer just because he wasn't quite as good as we hoped. There's no proof of causation there.

 

[nsacpi]

But there's no way to know this for sure. Heyward's problem, we found out, was that he had a hole in his swing. He wasn't ever able to correct it in the majors, so I'm just not sure he would have ever corrected it in the minors. And similar to Francouer, his best year was his first year, and he was instrumental in getting us to the playoffs that year. So I'm not going to say he should have stayed in the minors longer just because he wasn't quite as good as we hoped. There's no proof of causation there.

Even if all you say is correct, being smart about service time management would have extended contractual control for almost a full year.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Even if all you say is correct, being smart about service time management would have extended contractual control for almost a full year.

Then we wouldn't have swapped him for a year of miller and five years Jenkins. Then we wouldn't have Swanson, ender and Blair.

 

[nsacpi]

Then we wouldn't have swapped him for a year of miller and five years Jenkins. Then we wouldn't have Swanson, ender and Blair.

Hold on there. We could still have traded him when we did. But with two years of contractual control, he would have had more trade value.

 

[smootness]

Even if all you say is correct, being smart about service time management would have extended contractual control for almost a full year.

...and potentially caused us to miss the playoffs. I care about service time concerns, but I don't want us to make every decision based on it.

 

[nsacpi]

...and potentially caused us to miss the playoffs. I care about service time concerns, but I don't want us to make every decision based on it.

These kinds of decisions can only be made on an ex ante basis.

 

[50PoundHead]

I think Marksberry will be the next minor league bullpen guy called up, especially if O'Flaherty continues to struggle.

 

[UNCBlue012]

I think Marksberry will be the next minor league bullpen guy called up, especially if O'Flaherty continues to struggle.

I could be wrong, but I remember someone saying that Marksberry has been really good against lefties in his LOOGY role.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Even if all you say is correct, being smart about service time management would have extended contractual control for almost a full year.

we made the playoffs by one game. I think playing heyward from the jump is worth it for the playoffs.

 

[50PoundHead]

I could be wrong, but I remember someone saying that Marksberry has been really good against lefties in his LOOGY role.

That was probably me. Marksberry's splits against LHH since moving to the bullpen are really impressive. LHH BAA this year is .077. 5 Ks and 0 BBs in 4.1 IP against LHH.

His stats against LHH were really good in his stint with the big club last year as well. .531 OPS against.

I think one of the reasons he was sent down to AA this year was to work on his approach to RHH so he could expand his role beyond that of LOOGY. He looks to have the LOOGY part down.

 

[nsacpi]

we made the playoffs by one game. I think playing heyward from the jump is worth it for the playoffs.

Those kinds of decisions can only be made on an ex ante basis.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Spending a full season in AAA was good for Freddie Freeman. He was a mature hitter by the time we brought him up. I think for very highly rated prospects who are young for their level, there is much more danger and potential loss of value from rushing a player than potential loss from stagnation. We would have gotten more out of Heyward and Simmons if we had been a little more patient with them.

Do you think learning and development stops when they reach the majors? If anything I think the process of development accelerates from consistent playing time in the majors. You dont learn how to hit major league pitching at AAA, your mostly facing AAAA fodder. Some teams prefer to leave their prospects in AA because its more prospect laden. I dont advocate bringing them up ASAP because of service time but if that wasnt an issue. Like if Albies keeps htting I would bring him up around the all star break. Let him break in the second half of the season rather than the start of next year,

 

[nsacpi]

Do you think learning and development stops when they reach the majors?

Of course not. I think though that players like Andruw Jones, Simmons, Heyward who did not spend much time in the upper minors would have benefited from some time there.

Other highly touted prospects, like Chipper and Freddie Freeman, who spent a year in AAA seem to have arrived as more mature hitters once they were in the majors. I think a young hitter learns how to make adjustments in AAA. The pitchers there have often been in the majors and they know how to work a hitter's weaknesses. A lot of young hitters come into the majors and have great initial success, but they have trouble making adjustments after the pitchers develop a book on them.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

And if we are bad again in 2017, it will be even brighter...

I'm not sure if you are serious, but you should be. The Braves likely can't put together a real, competitive team for 2017. There aren't enough bats, even IF the young pitching ripens overnight. And the FA market is horrible between 2016/2017 so no help likely there. The Braves currently have Wisler, Blair, Folty, Kelly, Jenkins, Ellis, Barker, Newcomb, Sims, Whalen, Povse, and Teheran either at the ML level or at least within two years. Not all will make it, but to be competitive, the Braves really need at least 5 to turn into competent ML pitchers with 1-2 developing as "can go against anybody and at least have a chance" kind of guys OR they need to supplement with a FA or trade guy. At this point FA SP after this season are Strasburg and Latos, then a bunch of post 30 maybes. Point is, you can't count on trading away any significant minor league pitching this offseason and still expect to be able to put together a rotation that makes you competitive (it's possible, but would be hugely lucky). Relief help isn't any better.

The Braves, long term, would be much better off using the short term payroll flexibility to add talent through international signings (Maitan/others) and taking on short term bad contracts from other teams in exchange for additional talent. Draft Lewis, Okey and Tuck with the first three picks (or something LIKE that) add Maitan and as many others as you can on an International basis, draft at the top of the board in 2017, go through another 2016 year in 2017, THEN spend money on FA in the 2017/2018 class where you have one of the biggest and best FA classes of all time, then add to that with another set of high picks in 2018, a season where you are in position to really compete.

You have essentially three lost years: 2015, 2016, 2017, but you've turned over the payroll, loaded the system with talent in both quantity AND quality, have filled holes with targeted FA signings from a class where there are a number of great/good players to choose from (not just settling for the best of what's available like spending after this season would be), and set the payroll moving forward with a level of stability and flexibility not seen in Braves country for years.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

And if we are bad again in 2017, it will be even brighter...

I'm not sure if you are serious, but you should be. The Braves likely can't put together a real, competitive team for 2017. There aren't enough bats, even IF the young pitching ripens overnight. And the FA market is horrible between 2016/2017 so no help likely there. The Braves currently have Wisler, Blair, Folty, Kelly, Jenkins, Ellis, Barker, Newcomb, Sims, Whalen, Povse, and Teheran either at the ML level or at least within two years. Not all will make it, but to be competitive, the Braves really need at least 5 to turn into competent ML pitchers with 1-2 developing as "can go against anybody and at least have a chance" kind of guys OR they need to supplement with a FA or trade guy. At this point FA SP after this season are Strasburg and Latos, then a bunch of post 30 maybes. Point is, you can't count on trading away any significant minor league pitching this offseason and still expect to be able to put together a rotation that makes you competitive (it's possible, but would be hugely lucky). Relief help isn't any better.

The Braves, long term, would be much better off using the short term payroll flexibility to add talent through international signings (Maitan/others) and taking on short term bad contracts from other teams in exchange for additional talent. Draft Lewis, Okey and Tuck with the first three picks (or something LIKE that) add Maitan and as many others as you can on an International basis, draft at the top of the board in 2017, go through another 2016 year in 2017, THEN spend money on FA in the 2017/2018 class where you have one of the biggest and best FA classes of all time, then add to that with another set of high picks in 2018, a season where you are in position to really compete.

You have essentially three lost years: 2015, 2016, 2017, but you've turned over the payroll, loaded the system with talent in both quantity AND quality, have filled holes with targeted FA signings from a class where there are a number of great/good players to choose from (not just settling for the best of what's available like spending after this season would be), and set the payroll moving forward with a level of stability and flexibility not seen in Braves country for years.