- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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Hudson2 said:
I wouldn't at 3. Bc a better player will be available. Two of Groome, Lewis, Pint, and Puk will be there and they are all better imo.
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I would be fine with any of the three, although I prefer Ray to Lewis.

I just like the combination of him being (1) arguably BPA, i.e. not a reach even if you think other players are better, (2) he fits an organizational need - OF, (3) he profiles as a 20/20 guy who should be a plus defender in LF, and (4) he's close to the big leagues which means lower risk and he should come up at the same time as Swanson, Albies, Newcomb, etc.

That sames logic applies to Senzel as well. I would probably be able to talk myself into liking the pick, but on draft night it would be like eating wet bread.
 
smootness said:
I don't know many people down on Lewis at this point. He probably has the highest ceiling in the draft.
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I keep reading concerns about ks and contact rates.

Senzel I keep reading is a low ceiling guy. I don't know his first name so I'm not trying to pretend I'm a guru here. Just saying ppl I read keep me thinking that he'll be a Martin prado with the braves lf. That's valuable but not sure it's top 3 pick valuable.

Lewis also worries me bc he seems to be a fast riser. Those guys seem to rise bc of scarcity. I still think you go talent at the top.

So far the early returns on this front office are really good on the draft IMO. It's a draft and it's baseball so there wil be a lot of misses. That's cool if we hit a lot too
 
Here is a good write up on Nick Senzel from Minor League Ball.

Here is John Sickels's write up on Corey Ray.

Kyle Lewis

My wild card for Atlanta is Zack Collins. Here is John Sickels's write up on Collins.

One thing to note about Collins is that from as far back as Javy Lopez, the Braves have seemingly favored offensive oriented catchers with a more defensive oriented counterpart as the back up. Zack Collins is a guy who could move very fast and be a potential #3 or #4 hitter in the line up by 2018. The big question is whether he can handle the pitching staff.
 
The Braves I'm sure have it narrowed down to a couple of guys already. But bpa is always the best way to draft. If Groome is there I don't see us passing on him unless Lewis is still on the board.
 
Thaiss and Collins are guys I hope slip and we can grab in sandwich or round 2. Most seem to think it's unlikely they stick at c but they could be lf for us
 
KB21 said:
Here is a good write up on Nick Senzel from Minor League Ball.

Here is John Sickels's write up on Corey Ray.

Kyle Lewis

My wild card for Atlanta is Zack Collins. Here is John Sickels's write up on Collins.

One thing to note about Collins is that from as far back as Javy Lopez, the Braves have seemingly favored offensive oriented catchers with a more defensive oriented counterpart as the back up. Zack Collins is a guy who could move very fast and be a potential #3 or #4 hitter in the line up by 2018. The big question is whether he can handle the pitching staff.
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I've been keeping up with Collins. He's a beast. I'm not sure about him at 3 but I'd love to have him.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Thaiss and Collins are guys I hope slip and we can grab in sandwich or round 2. Most seem to think it's unlikely they stick at c but they could be lf for us
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Well, I personally put a little more value on defense when it comes to that. Collins would probably be similar to Gattis in LF if it came to that.
 
Collins won't fall to our pick at 40, and there's no way we should take him at 3. I'd be fine with Thaiss though because he projects to stay behind the plate.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I keep reading concerns about ks and contact rates.

Senzel I keep reading is a low ceiling guy. I don't know his first name so I'm not trying to pretend I'm a guru here. Just saying ppl I read keep me thinking that he'll be a Martin prado with the braves lf. That's valuable but not sure it's top 3 pick valuable.

Lewis also worries me bc he seems to be a fast riser. Those guys seem to rise bc of scarcity. I still think you go talent at the top.

So far the early returns on this front office are really good on the draft IMO. It's a draft and it's baseball so there wil be a lot of misses. That's cool if we hit a lot too
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I don't understand where the K concern is coming from. He's sitting at 38 Ks in about 245 PAs with 50+ walks. That's a 15% K rate that comes with great power and excellent on base skills.

Ray has 32 Ks so far this year in roughly the same number of PAs. Swanson K'd at a 16% rate his last year and Vandy. Both hit for much less power than Lewis.
 
Enscheff said:
I don't understand where the K concern is coming from. He's sitting at 38 Ks in about 245 PAs with 50+ walks. That's a 15% K rate that comes with great power and excellent on base skills.

Ray has 32 Ks so far this year in roughly the same number of PAs. Swanson K'd at a 16% rate his last year and Vandy. Both hit for much less power than Lewis.
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Keith Law addressed this Ina chat a week or so ago. He said that it wasn't strikeouts, rather the rate that he swings and misses versus inferior pitching.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
Keith Law addressed this Ina chat a week or so ago. He said that it wasn't strikeouts, rather the rate that he swings and misses versus inferior pitching.
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That makes sense then. I suppose it is one thing to K because you are working the count vs swinging and missing. And it is also possible to swing and miss in an AB while still not striking out. Maybe his K numbers would be much worse in a better conference.
 
When looking at Kyle Lewis and the "level of competition" concerns with him, I go back to Kris Bryant. The guy came out of a similar small conference team. His strike out rate as a junior was around 15%. He hit a home run every 7.2 ABs. Kyle's is around 15% and hits a home run every 10.9 ABs.

Even if there is some swing and miss in his swing, you have a guy who is legitimately a 30+ home run potential power bat with the ability to stick in right field. He projects to be what Jason Heyward should have been.
 
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