- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
bravos4evr said:
If you think about it,farm ranking and winning in the minors doesn't make any sense. If you have 20 great prospects they are probably spread over several teams and all are on several different levels of development. (especially when the system is pitching heavy like the Braves) You might have 15 good arms spread over 6 or 7 teams then 5 or 6 bats spread over similar. The rest of the teams are org depth, and boom, bad results.

I don't know if there is any correlation between minor league team success and farm system results, but something tells me there will be none. The farm is about player development, not winning AA championships.
Click to expand...

With due respect, I don't think this line of reasoning makes any sense. All farm systems have their better prospects spread out across several levels. But since ours is supposedly better than most, we should have more "good prospects" than other systems to spread around the various levels, thus making our teams better, on average, than minor league systems that don't have as many good prospects as we do.

If a farm system is better than another, on average they should win more than that lower rated system. If they don't, something is wrong.
 
skillet said:
With due respect, I don't think this line of reasoning makes any sense. All farm systems have their better prospects spread out across several levels. But since ours is supposedly better than most, we should have more "good prospects" than other systems to spread around the various levels, thus making our teams better, on average, than minor league systems that don't have as many good prospects as we do.

If a farm system is better than another, on average they should win more than that lower rated system. If they don't, something is wrong.
Click to expand...

no it doesn't! it really doesn't.

AAA PCL records and affiliated MLB team farm rankings:

Sounds (Oak) and Rainers (Mariners) tied for first with a 33-21 record are ranked 18th and 26th in MLB farm

Padres are 2nd : #23

Express (Rangers) are in 3rd and the rangers farm is ranked 7th

Mets farm team is 4th and Mets are ranked 21st

tied for 5th with a .500 record are :

Dodgers: ranked #1
Brewers : ranked #5
D-Backs: ranked #19
Cubs: ranked #16

tied for 5th at 25-27 are :

royals: ranked #22nd
Angels: ranked #30

next is Astros: #3

then Marlins: #29

then Rockies: #4

then cards: #14

then dead last in the PCL is the Giants AAA team tho their farm is ranked :20th

it goes on this way for every minor league team. There is no correlation between farm system ranking and minor league team results.

The thing you are forgetting is that regardless of if one minor league destination (let's say Mississippi Braves) has a lot of prospects, the majority of the starting player and bullpen are career minor league organizational depth guys. Guys that will rarely, if ever sniff an inning or a plate appearance at the big league level. and in a game with all the variables of baseball. individual farm system rankings and prospects are simply too far spread across too many teams at too many different levels of development for the results to be correlated with prospect quality,depth or ranking. Some bad farms get good results, some good farms get bad results in the minor league season. But to say they have a direct connection seems to ignore the evidence that appears to say they don't.

EDITED TO ADD: top half of PCL avg farm system ranking 15.625 , bottom half of the PCL avg farm ranking was 16.5 damn near statistically equal.
 
I'm curious. Based on upside, would Kevin Maitan be the top hitting prospect in this draft if he were draft eligible?

I think you can make a case that he would be. Of course, like any J2 prospect, there is a lot of risk, but the upside is tremendous.
 
another thing to take into consideration is that many highly ranked prospects don't put up huge results as they develop. They may be pushed to higher levels where they struggle at first. They may be working on breaking pitches and thus not having as lofty a numbers as they might otherwise. Your argument might have some weight if the goal of the minor league teams was to win games. But it isn't, the goal of the farm is to develop talent to either be used on the field at the big league level or in trades to acquire big league talent.

here's an analogy for you: you build race car engines, weld frames and carbon fiber racing seats. People think you are the best in the business at what you do,but with just a frame an engine and a seat of high quality with the rest of your car bunch of cheap, old second hand parts you wouldn't win many races. You would lose to a race car that was of lesser quality in engine ,frame and seats because it's other parts were a little less old, worn and might even be first hand. But that doesn't mean anyone would want to buy their engines or frames, yours are still the best. you just don't have as good a car as they do
 
KB21 said:
I'm curious. Based on upside, would Kevin Maitan be the top hitting prospect in this draft if he were draft eligible?

I think you can make a case that he would be. Of course, like any J2 prospect, there is a lot of risk, but the upside is tremendous.
Click to expand...

Law and Sickels both said they thought he would be consensus #1 if he was available.
 
Phillies beat writer just said he'd lean Moniak at 1 as of now, and John Manuel from Baseball America said he agrees and that will be reflected in the BA mock that comes out today. If that's true and the Reds want Puk like many have reported, things set up about as well as possible for us.
 
CJ9 said:
Phillies beat writer just said he'd lean Moniak at 1 as of now, and John Manuel from Baseball America said he agrees and that will be reflected in the BA mock that comes out today. If that's true and the Reds want Puk like many have reported, things set up about as well as possible for us.
Click to expand...

BA has been on Moniak as 1 for the last two mocks I believe. He has a sweet stroke, but I would think that sets them up for an underslot signing and having money left over to throw at someone later on.
 
CJ9 said:
Phillies beat writer just said he'd lean Moniak at 1 as of now, and John Manuel from Baseball America said he agrees and that will be reflected in the BA mock that comes out today. If that's true and the Reds want Puk like many have reported, things set up about as well as possible for us.
Click to expand...

Lewis or Groome would be a tough decision
 
If Lewis and Groome are both there it would be really hard to pass on Groome given how well we are with pitching, but our minors are anemic on hitters so Lewis would have to be my choice.
 
For some reason I get the Victor Roache feeling from Lewis, and Roache has struggled in the minors. Can't fight the production though...hes been doing it for 2+ years and in the Cape league.
 
Tapate50 said:
For some reason I get the Victor Roache feeling from Lewis, and Roache has struggled in the minors. Can't fight the production though...hes been doing it for 2+ years and in the Cape league.
Click to expand...

I mentioned this earlier, but a former Brewers's scout mentioned the name Bryce Brentz to me when talking about Lewis. Same scout compares Corey Ray to Jackie Bradley Jr.

My personal opinion is that there may be some offensive similarities between Brentz and Lewis, but Lewis is a better defender coming out of college. What does concern me is that scouts feel Lewis's only plus tool is his power, whereas with Corey Ray, his speed and hit tool are both plus with his power a potential plus. Corey Ray currently has above average tools for the field, but his in game play in the field rates as average at this point.
 
The only reason I could see them going pitching at 3 is bc they are looking like they are gonna load up on hitting in the international signing period.
 
I don't think I've seen anyone give Ray's hit tool a plus rating. I've seen it around average at best.

His plus tool is his speed, and his power is above-average.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top