- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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clvclv said:
Over 150 ABs against Pitchers without much in the way of scouting reports.

Like I said, I'm not down on Lewis - it'd just be much easier to sell me on him if our scouts are convinced that his Cape numbers reflect who he is.
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But why wouldn't they? I get the slight concerns over his level of competition at Mercer, but it seems like if people take issue with his Cape numbers, they're going to take issue with anyone anywhere. I mean, all the HS kids are playing even worse competition than at Mercer. Playing at Tennessee and Louisville isn't facing the same level of competition as the Cape.

I just don't really get it. All MLB drafting requires extensive scouting beyond simply looking at numbers. Lewis seems like he has less risk than HS players and slightly more than some of the other college players. I'm fine with saying that, but asking things like, 'Are his numbers at the Cape really who he is?' just seems kind of asinine to me.

Playing a lower level of competition in college won't hurt him. It may make evaluation a little tougher, but there is no amount of success in college that guarantees success in the pros, so again, all drafting requires evaluation to ask whether the player will translate.
 
dak said:
Regarding Belinsky's comment on Lewis and the Cape Cod league, my recollection is he was referencing his performance in his second season in the league versus his first. I think it's in the first half of the video linked int he tweet. Not sure if it's a reasonable knock . . . just passing on what he said. Most of Belinsky's concern seemed to be focused on Lewis' swing and level of competition faced.
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I'm completely convinced that the motion Kyle has pre swing has distracted some guys who are evaluating him. Watch his hands as he goes through his swing.
 
smootness said:
But why wouldn't they? I get the slight concerns over his level of competition at Mercer, but it seems like if people take issue with his Cape numbers, they're going to take issue with anyone anywhere. I mean, all the HS kids are playing even worse competition than at Mercer. Playing at Tennessee and Louisville isn't facing the same level of competition as the Cape.

I just don't really get it. All MLB drafting requires extensive scouting beyond simply looking at numbers. Lewis seems like he has less risk than HS players and slightly more than some of the other college players. I'm fine with saying that, but asking things like, 'Are his numbers at the Cape really who he is?' just seems kind of asinine to me.

Playing a lower level of competition in college won't hurt him. It may make evaluation a little tougher, but there is no amount of success in college that guarantees success in the pros, so again, all drafting requires evaluation to ask whether the player will translate.
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I think too much is being made of level of competition. There are a number of top hitters in baseball today that were JUCO guys, which is probably a lower level of competition than Kyle was facing at Mercer. Albert Pujols was a juco. Jose Bautista was a juco. Lorenzo Cain was a juco. Bryce Harper was a juco.

Heck, everyone loves Kris Bryant, and he played in a conference that is essentially the same level of competition as the SoCon.
 
smootness said:
But why wouldn't they? I get the slight concerns over his level of competition at Mercer, but it seems like if people take issue with his Cape numbers, they're going to take issue with anyone anywhere. I mean, all the HS kids are playing even worse competition than at Mercer. Playing at Tennessee and Louisville isn't facing the same level of competition as the Cape.

I just don't really get it. All MLB drafting requires extensive scouting beyond simply looking at numbers. Lewis seems like he has less risk than HS players and slightly more than some of the other college players. I'm fine with saying that, but asking things like, 'Are his numbers at the Cape really who he is?' just seems kind of asinine to me.

Playing a lower level of competition in college won't hurt him. It may make evaluation a little tougher, but there is no amount of success in college that guarantees success in the pros, so again, all drafting requires evaluation to ask whether the player will translate.
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Mike Kelly was at Arizona State.

I like the fact that Lewis has had significant growth in his game since becoming a full time baseball player instead of incremental improvement.

There are questions on each guy college and pro. Will Senzel ever hit for enough power to be anything other than Bill Mueller? Can Corey Ray be more than Mallex Smith? Will Puk translate into a big time winner on a consistent basis instead of just showing flashes of brilliance to go along with disaster? Will Lewis turn out to be Mike Kelly? Will Rutherford be George Lombard?
 
At the end of the day, the one thing I care about the most with hitters is bat speed. If they've got that, I'm fine with taking the risk and Lewis absolutely has it.

I understand it doesn't always work for bat speed guys, but I'm willing to bet on someone with bat speed almost any time.
 
CJ9 said:
At the end of the day, the one thing I care about the most with hitters is bat speed. If they've got that, I'm fine with taking the risk and Lewis absolutely has it.

I understand it doesn't always work for bat speed guys, but I'm willing to bet on someone with bat speed almost any time.
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Unless there is a big hitch in the swing, bat speed is the most important thing with plate coverage second.

Looking at the video, Lewis does have a funkier swing than Ray. Moniak has one of the nicest swings I've seen in years. Extremely quiet.
 
clvclv said:
Over 150 ABs against Pitchers without much in the way of scouting reports.

Like I said, I'm not down on Lewis - it'd just be much easier to sell me on him if our scouts are convinced that his Cape numbers reflect who he is.
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But your original argument was basically that he wasn't that good in the Cape
 
BA mock 5.0 has Groome slipping all the way to #14 (Tribe).

I just don't see Groome wanting to sign for less than 3 million. I would think if Groome is still there at 10, one of the (Braves/Reds/Phils/Friars) would call him and let him know that they will pick him next pick and offer 3.5
 
I agree Matt. If Groome is there after the top 10 then I'd call and offer 4 and let him tell other teams a crazy number to scare em off. It would be almost impossible to get Lewis and Groome in the same draft.
 
Hudson2 said:
I agree Matt. If Groome is there after the top 10 then I'd call and offer 4 and let him tell other teams a crazy number to scare em off. It would be almost impossible to get Lewis and Groome in the same draft.
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we wouldn't have enough money, I don't think for both...

Lewis gets 5 (idk)
Groome gets 4
44 gets 2.5
76 gets 1
80 gets 700K

I guess that could work.. That is 13 million.. .which is close to what they have to spend.. but they can go over by a few million and still not pay too dearly..
 
50PoundHead said:
Unless there is a big hitch in the swing, bat speed is the most important thing with plate coverage second.

Looking at the video, Lewis does have a funkier swing than Ray. Moniak has one of the nicest swings I've seen in years. Extremely quiet.
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Lewis has a funkier pre-swing. His bat movement during his high leg kick is not a bat wrap like we see with Olivera, rather it points more away from his body instead of towards the pitcher. By the time his foot hits the ground his hands are back to a "normal" position with zero bat wrap.

I'm obviously no scout, but pre-swing stuff doesn't bother me as long as a guy gets his hands/bat in the proper position by the time the front foot strikes the ground.
 
bravescountry said:
Ben from tomahawktake think that the Braves have or will have deals in placed with their first 3 picks in the draft... that saying, I could see us taking Lewis at #3 (signing underslot), a prep arm at 40 (overslot), and a prep bat at 44 (overslot).
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In my opinion that would be an A+ draft by the Braves. Lewis plus two more top 25ish guys would be the best case scenario.
 
zbhargrove said:
But your original argument was basically that he wasn't that good in the Cape
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I've said nothing of the sort. I said that I'd defer to what our scouts say (about EVERY player) because they're much more qualified than I am as evaluators. They've "seen" him. Has anyone else?
 
Enscheff said:
Lewis has a funkier pre-swing. His bat movement during his high leg kick is not a bat wrap like we see with Olivera, rather it points more away from his body instead of towards the pitcher. By the time his foot hits the ground his hands are back to a "normal" position with zero bat wrap.

I'm obviously no scout, but pre-swing stuff doesn't bother me as long as a guy gets his hands/bat in the proper position by the time the front foot strikes the ground.
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All true, but it is a pretty funky pre-swing. Olivera's bat wrap wouldn't be so bad (a lot of the Cuban guys have that--look at Escobar) if he could get his hands in position and had better bat speed. I've always thought the two were separable. Same goes for Lewis. It's all about where the hands are.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
we wouldn't have enough money, I don't think for both...

Lewis gets 5 (idk)
Groome gets 4
44 gets 2.5
76 gets 1
80 gets 700K

I guess that could work.. That is 13 million.. .which is close to what they have to spend.. but they can go over by a few million and still not pay too dearly..
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If we get Lewis and Groome I don't care who we pick at 44, 76, and 80.
 
Deester11 said:
I'm with you. Let's pick Schuerholz's cousin's nephew's son(s) and pay them $10k and get on with the rest of the draft. Great plan.
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although I know what you are saying.. banking your entire draft on two players is a bit risky. Even with those guys being top of draft talent.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
we wouldn't have enough money, I don't think for both...

Lewis gets 5 (idk)
Groome gets 4
44 gets 2.5
76 gets 1
80 gets 700K

I guess that could work.. That is 13 million.. .which is close to what they have to spend.. but they can go over by a few million and still not pay too dearly..
Click to expand...

If Groome is demanding $4M, once he slides past #6 a team will have to give him over slot to sign him. If the Braves give Lewis $5M, they could possibly cobble together $4M for Groome at #40 if they go under slot everywhere else.

The main problem I see is the Reds. If they sign Senzel at #2 for $6M they can use the saved $1.7M to help get Groome at #35 before the Braves pick again. If the Reds somehow come away with Senzel/Lewis plus Groome they would have won the draft I think.
 
IMO, if we can snag 3 top 30 talents with our first 3 picks our draft is an A+ regardless of what follows.
 
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