- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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I wish we could have made a trade with Oakland for their comp pick. That would give us the most money and would make it easier to make a deal for a bigger name.
 
I stumbled on this article from FanGraphs about Lewis which was an excellent read. In short, it says it's dangerous to scout the stat line, but when comparing Lewis to other similarly situated players from national conferences not known for producing a stream of MLB level talent, Lewis profiles more likely as a bust than someone who may be successful (in large part due to his contact %). Of course he's young enough and may be talented enough to mitigate or eliminate holes in his swing, but I thought it was a good reminder not to simply buy into the stat line alone.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-lewis-and-the-elite-small-conference-draft-prospect/
 
bravesfanMatt said:
although I know what you are saying.. banking your entire draft on two players is a bit risky. Even with those guys being top of draft talent.
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Considering Groome and Lewis are both Top 5 talents I could care less who the rest of our top 100 picks are. We can take a risk on a catcher or 3b who would be overslot.
 
ramadon101 said:
I stumbled on this article from FanGraphs about Lewis which was an excellent read. In short, it says it's dangerous to scout the stat line, but when comparing Lewis to other similarly situated players from national conferences not known for producing a stream of MLB level talent, Lewis profiles more likely as a bust than someone who may be successful (in large part due to his contact %). Of course he's young enough and may be talented enough to mitigate or eliminate holes in his swing, but I thought it was a good reminder not to simply buy into the stat line alone.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-lewis-and-the-elite-small-conference-draft-prospect/
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I've heard his contact rate mentioned quite a bit. now i want to shy away. the draft just needs to get here.
 
yeezus said:
I've heard his contact rate mentioned quite a bit. now i want to shy away. the draft just needs to get here.
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meh, I bet if you scoured the internet you could read negative nancy stuff about every top 10 pick of the last 30 years. (yer right tho, wish the damn draft would hurry up and get here)

sux, I run a pub trivia game on thur. nights and they don't have MLB network. Is it on ESPN too by any chance?
 
Agreed. There is negative stuff about everybody. He walks more than he strikes out and has gotten better every year.
 
bravos4evr said:
IMO, if we can snag 3 top 30 talents with our first 3 picks our draft is an A+ regardless of what follows.
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I just don't see how we could pull this off without taking a player that has no business going third, which would be foolish to me. I think we can get two top 30 guys by playing our cards right, but every scenario fans are throwing out for potential bonuses at 40 and 44 seem overly optimistic.
 
bravos4evr said:
meh, I bet if you scoured the internet you could read negative nancy stuff about every top 10 pick of the last 30 years. (yer right tho, wish the damn draft would hurry up and get here)

sux, I run a pub trivia game on thur. nights and they don't have MLB network. Is it on ESPN too by any chance?
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This is true. I feel like I remember reading Harper was overhyped because he wouldn't stick at Catcher.
 
ramadon101 said:
I stumbled on this article from FanGraphs about Lewis which was an excellent read. In short, it says it's dangerous to scout the stat line, but when comparing Lewis to other similarly situated players from national conferences not known for producing a stream of MLB level talent, Lewis profiles more likely as a bust than someone who may be successful (in large part due to his contact %). Of course he's young enough and may be talented enough to mitigate or eliminate holes in his swing, but I thought it was a good reminder not to simply buy into the stat line alone.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-lewis-and-the-elite-small-conference-draft-prospect/
Click to expand...

Eh, I think this is a flawed study. For one, they leave out Kris Bryant as a player who has done well from a "smaller" conference. If you look at the average RPI of the conferences over the past 4 years, the West Coast Conference (San Diego) and the Southern Conference (Mercer) are in that 14-15 range among conferences. The SWAC, which is where Richie Weeks played, is closer to 30th, being stronger than only independents. It also leaves out a guy like Paul Goldschmidt, who played at Texas State in the Sun Belt Conference.
 
KB21 said:
Eh, I think this is a flawed study. For one, they leave out Kris Bryant as a player who has done well from a "smaller" conference. If you look at the average RPI of the conferences over the past 4 years, the West Coast Conference (San Diego) and the Southern Conference (Mercer) are in that 14-15 range among conferences. The SWAC, which is where Richie Weeks played, is closer to 30th, being stronger than only independents. It also leaves out a guy like Paul Goldschmidt, who played at Texas State in the Sun Belt Conference.
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Not only this, but you can't compare college baseball in 2002 or so to college baseball now. Offense is definitely down due to changes in the bats. They have changed the ball since then and offense has gone back up but not even close to the 'gorilla ball' days still.
 
KB21 said:
Eh, I think this is a flawed study. For one, they leave out Kris Bryant as a player who has done well from a "smaller" conference. If you look at the average RPI of the conferences over the past 4 years, the West Coast Conference (San Diego) and the Southern Conference (Mercer) are in that 14-15 range among conferences. The SWAC, which is where Richie Weeks played, is closer to 30th, being stronger than only independents. It also leaves out a guy like Paul Goldschmidt, who played at Texas State in the Sun Belt Conference.
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I agree- just thought it was an interesting read. Like others have said, there aren't any "perfect" players and certainly not in this year's draft. I like Lewis as much as the rest of the top 5 lot given our options.
 
smootness said:
Not only this, but you can't compare college baseball in 2002 or so to college baseball now. Offense is definitely down due to changes in the bats. They have changed the ball since then and offense has gone back up but not even close to the 'gorilla ball' days still.
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This is a very good point. I totally forgot they nerfed the bats a few years ago.
 
mqt said:
I just don't see how we could pull this off without taking a player that has no business going third, which would be foolish to me. I think we can get two top 30 guys by playing our cards right, but every scenario fans are throwing out for potential bonuses at 40 and 44 seem overly optimistic.
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crap, that was a typo, it was supposed to say "2" top 20 talents in the first 3 picks, looks like I skipped a number for both ... sorry
 
Enscheff said:
This is a very good point. I totally forgot they nerfed the bats a few years ago.
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Yep, in 2011. Since then, the top two college home run hitters in a season have been Kris Bryant with 31 and Victor Roache with 30. Bryant has done well, while Roache's numbers have yet to translate to pro ball. I always had some concerns about Roache's build when he came out of Georgia Southern. He was bound up, and I felt like he would end up losing bat speed as he got bigger.
 
If Groome is really dropping that fast and Lewis is gone at 3 then who do you take? Puk or Moniak would be my 2 choices.
 
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